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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    Tornado Watch coming
  2. weatherwiz
    looking pretty impressive with nearly 200 J of 3km CAPE being modeled for later
  3. weatherwiz
    Thankfully it's getting closer to landfall so not sure how much room there is for strengthening, however, I guess you couldn't rule out some additional strengthening as it interacts with that ULJ.
  4. weatherwiz
    NHC did a special advisory. Up to 85 mph
  5. weatherwiz
  6. weatherwiz
    If that is legit we are in for some big trouble
  7. weatherwiz
    ummm hello
  8. weatherwiz
    Should this verify there is going to be some widespread damage with a few embedded tornadoes
  9. weatherwiz
    extrapolated SLP of 985mb found
  10. weatherwiz
    First two of 2020 for CT! Let's add several more tomorrow
  11. weatherwiz
    There goes our jet streak. Should continue to strengthen
  12. weatherwiz
    Wow hurricane winds a bit far into the NE part
  13. weatherwiz
    Yeah for sure...probably could extend that area to Long Island and southern CT...maybe even a bit farther inland into CT. If we do see gusts 60-70 mph...even if that magnitude only lasts a couple hours...that's going to do significant damage given the fully leaved trees. I mean look at what 50-60 mph winds do during thunderstorms here and those winds maybe last for what...a few minutes? I guess thankfully the ground is dry
  14. weatherwiz
    21z RPM actually hints at hurricane-force winds possible along the NJ coast. Actually is a bit impressive with winds well inland across CT. But why does the scale max out at 50 knots?
  15. weatherwiz
    well recon's first pass was impressive...hurricane force winds
  16. weatherwiz
    yes but we're talking about with tropical...it's exceedingly rare to get a ENH with a tropical system b/c the main threat is tornadoes and you would need a 10% TOR contour to get ENH and that doesn't happen very often
  17. weatherwiz
    I can only recall a couple times over the past several years where it's happened. I think it actually may have occurred last season? Maybe it was with Michael
  18. weatherwiz
    Let's 10% TOR this tomorrow. Hey Alex, I'll take ENH for $1000
  19. weatherwiz
    18z NAM BDL at 8:00 AM. CAPE continue to looking very impressive. Def have to wonder if we see an upgrade to an enhanced risk...maybe even see wind probs of 30% if signal for convection persists 3:00 PM lapse rates (3:00 PM)
  20. weatherwiz
    Actually has some decent TOR potential well into NH and even parts of ME
  21. weatherwiz
    Looks like a window from 5-10 AM and then another maybe 4-8 PM. HRRR looks like it's going to be wild with wind
  22. weatherwiz
    yeah it does appear as if it will stop ingesting dry air shortly...or very little. Where landfall happens will be big too...obviously the longer the eye stays over the water the greater the chance for strengthening but in this situation the longer it stays over water the closer to we towards sunset/evening when convection can start to increase.
  23. weatherwiz
    starting to see some overshooting tots on satellite
  24. weatherwiz
    the 18z HRRR has some nasty looking discrete cells moving through early tomorrow AM
  25. weatherwiz
    If it did get higher than a cat 1 we would be in deep trouble But I doubt so too...I'm thinking maybe 80-85 mph?
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