weatherwiz

storms moving NE at 85 mph through Nebraska .

I noticed that too...kinda got screwed by that a few times...especially when I do Weekly forecasts on Friday I'll get a little overzealous seeing some of these warm signals in the south only to get muted. Another issue too is cloud cover...sometimes guidance is a bit too aggressive with sky cover and it probably impacts its mixing potential. NBM does seem to be a bit better though than MOS. RDU is a place where it seems like models often are a bit too high with temps and a bit too warm with lows. I've wanted to look into this but I've wondered if RDU is a location that is great for radiating.

some people have had the best times of their lives in only 3-minutes of fun

70's with dews in the upper 50's to lower 60's in Iowa...in December... Should have flew out there for today

The NAM is complete trash when it comes to forecasting temperatures...especially across the central U.S. There are some instances where the NAM/GFS will be off by like 10-15F on temps...it's laughable.

Risk for a strong tornado in areas where there is snow cover. snow-induced TDS's?

The structure of those 2M temp anomalies too (kinking from NE to SW) lead me to believe there would be a pretty solid high pressure off to the north which could certainly help in shunting storms south or supplying cold air.

At the car repair shop place sitting in the lobby working while they scan my car and this giant wolf spider craws near me. THERE AREN'T SUPPOSED TO BE WOLF SPIDERS IN DECEMBER

Indeed...this is actually becoming quite exciting. I love these sneaky setups too...these can often overperform too. There are actually some signals too that there could be two heavy bands of snow (which would then bring into question some areas of subsidence) but one heavy band of snow just north of the low track and another in the vicinity of the strongest WAA (these two don't seemed to be overlapped). I am hoping the degree of ulvl divergence given that streak will promote large enough lift to blossom a precipitation shield but sometimes these setups become more band oriented.

That is some hefty WAA. That would lead to some serious rates. That degree of WAA reminds me of November 2018 (I think that was November). And that event was pretty wild...especially down across SE PA/NJ/Long Island/S CT

Anytime you get these scenarios with cold air drainage from a high pressure to the north there is always the concern for dry air to drain down as well, however, that doesn't appear to be a concern in this scenario. Also note how the ULJ develops moving through Saturday morning across the Northeast...going to be a great deal of upper-level divergence present. Given the lift we should have where it snows its really going to come down.

Wow this is getting pretty interesting. Pretty stout high to the north too so hard to see this tracking farther north. If this does verify I probably wouldn't be going Saturday

I'd be going from Springfield Saturday with my gf so probably (I forget what route it is) something briefly to the Mass Pike.

I can barely handle driving in Hartford and I could barely handle driving around in Danbury cities stress me out...worrying about where to turn and if you'll miss it whether you're in the right lane. I prefer the highway sucked on subsidence all night (and 40's)

I got shafted in that event That storm makes me cringe

yeah I'm definitely planning on it. I'm actually probably going to drive to Wellington and take the T in. I am NOT a city driver. Last time when I went to Clarke's I almost died driving in Boston and parked in a garage and it cost $45 Probably plan on staying until around 7 then want to get back for the Pats game.

Iowa is going to get creamed later...holy crap. May be looking at a derecho is the distance requirement is met

There's just too much shared on social media that shouldn't be shared b/c chaos ensues. It's one thing to maybe have those type of discussions say like on a place like this...you're sharing ideas thoughts, and having a discussion. But on social media...it just takes off and boom. But I can see why people do this on social media...you generate enough likes and a following and it becomes profitable. I'm not sure how it works with Facebook and Twitter but on YouTube once your channel generates enough followers and your videos get an 'x' amount of views...you get paid. I come across some channels on YouTube that go hype crazy and have a ton of followers and views...they must be making a killing. I mean think about it...any single one of us on here could go ahead and do the same thing. I mean why not create a channel throw up some graphics and then talk about the what ifs and cater into a crowd which is going to generate like/views.

It really is maddening. I don't want this to be mistaken as me hating winter or snow b/c I love snow...absolutely love it (can't stand the cold but if it will snow I'll take it). But there is just something about winter that is just maddening...people go crazy trying to find any justification possible that the "pattern is changing and we're going to get slammed". The biggest problem overall IMO is too many correlate to a specific weather pattern to a particular result...and this doesn't just imply to winter weather it refers to any weather event...tropical, severe, etc. You can see why though...from a research prospective + how our brains work it's very easy to correlate a pattern to an output. It's very easy to create 500mb patterns through re-analysis and there are many tools to do that. So boom you throw in height composites for 5 different snow storms (or tropical or severe) find a common pattern and boom...you have a "correlation". We also remember the times a pattern produces vs. the time it doesn't...and again it's much easier to do analysis on a pattern that produced than didn't produce b/c you can find the date of a particular event and go from there. But at the end of the day having a "favorable pattern" is an incredibly small piece to the puzzle and I think gets way more weight than it really should be getting. Yes, having a favorable pattern is just the start but there's a ton else that needs to happen within that pattern. So we have certain connections between pattern and output...for example, major severe weather outbreaks in the Plains have occurred with a trough digging through the West with a ridge in the East...but does every trough digging through the West produce severe weather...no. Does every trough in the East bring snow or an active pattern...no. Does every -NAO bring snow or an active pattern...no. Weather forecasting is just getting lazy and lazy b/c it is so easy to just find a 500mb height anomaly map, throw the picture up on social media and then type up some gibberish explaining the "what if" and calling it a day. I bet if one were to do extensive research...and I mean extensive the result would be that "favorable" patterns probably don't produce to the degree that one would think they do (and this again goes to all type of weather).

This is just another problem right here. There is just a constant barrage of social media posts that are nothing more than "what if's" and all it does is lead to immense hype and hope. What drives me absolutely nuts is the posts that state, "This is unlikely to happen but if it did...." WHY THE **** EVEN POST IT THEN? There is absolutely zero benefit or reason to post it...well with the exception of clicking profiles, likes, and new followers. How many times do we continue to see signals of any extreme in the long-range back off? Literally happens every single time. These freaking posts of one day "cancelling winter" to "winter is back" on a daily basis is nothing but an emotionally draining, giving people wrong idea, sense of crap. Then there always has to be a justification as to "why it's possible". Anyone can throw up a map of anything...anything and come up with some outlandish reason as to why some solution is possible. Could post a SLP map of the low pressure going through the Pains Wednesday which is going to be quite intense and say, "Ohhh if this system had more moisture there would be a major blizzard NW of the low" or "if moisture return was much stronger in the warm sector there would be a severe outbreak". "If that low tracked 700 miles east we would get snow". You don't post that what if crap b/c it's BULLSHIT

A different type of naked. The GFS tends to overmix (while the NAM tends to undermix)...why this is IDK but it's kinda annoying actually but how often do you see wind potential like this in a synoptic event? That part of the country does synoptic wind events much better than we do but this is still quite impressive for them. Winter dynamics aloft with a spring environment at the sfc

man that is going to be one crazy wind event in the Plains Wednesday. GFS may be overmixing a bit but some of the soundings are insane.

maybe you stole their snow

I got it too...I felt special but I did report it.

Forecasting within the West can be so challenging. How do people do it lol.