weatherwiz

When do the Mets look to improve?

I still can't get over Saturday. 80's across Texas with 70's as far north as KS/OK and AR/MO border and then single digits across the northern Plains. Hell even IND may sneak into the lower 60's.

yeah I'm with you there. It's extremely frustrating and at times teasing. While it's still several days out this end of weekend ordeal has gone in the teaser category...but hopefully can end up in the cha ching category

I'm not inclined to think in this direction yet, but it has just as good of a chance as any other solution of verifying. If we end up torching though...we're going to torch. Those anomalies which have been occurring across the South at times (especially this upcoming weekend) have been wild.

Maybe even a few ticks warmer than April Very true. But the jest is to tamper back high hopes (at least on a personal level). There has been alot of excitement generated about the upcoming pattern and the potential it may hold...but we could very, very easily end up with crap...like total crap. With the crap a result of a dry pattern or hell...even quite a bit above-average. But like you said, its so convoluted and chaotic that it's really anyone's guess as to what happens. There is just zero confidence moving into these upcoming few weeks.

It's become nice in southern CT. Skies have become partly sunny...just wish it was 10-20....40°F warmer out.

lol GFS has a 150+ knots MLJ streak develop. Anyways, nice to see Sunday is still being signaled. After that though...the northern stream just looks like crap. It's a sheared mess of garbage. Really tough to envision anything working out in that. Even southern stream is kind of garbage. Sunday may be our best hope

Lift looks pretty decent region wide so would be shocked if SW CT didn't see some snow from it. It's quite cold aloft too so we'll maximize whatever QPF we deal with. I would imagine ratios upwards of 15:1 so maybe some can fluff their way to 3''.

Looks like it also passes directly over Lake Ontario...that probably enhances moisture as well. Previous models runs (which were drier) I think tracked this farther southwest.

hmmm I thought there was another one. I remember one occurring while I was still in school.

Which doesn't seem to be the case. There may be some brief periods where the blocking relaxes a bit when is when we may sneak in a day or two of some above-average temps (just hope it's not at the expense of a cutter ) but I actually like the blocking signal moving forward in the essence of the pattern. You don't want a stout block b/c then we may have suppression issues but if we get a strong enough block to shunt the gradient south a bit we should be good.

wasn't there a local upslope event a few winters back...maybe 2017-2018? Parts of NE CT ended up with like 7-8'' and literally nothing was forecast (in terms of accumulations).

Yeah we're like being saved by the -NAO right now and these sfc high's sliding across SE Canada. But we are really walking a fine line over the next few weeks...which pretty much defines the gradient pattern that's been discussed but we could just as easily end up on the wrong side.

A big key moving into the upcoming couple of weeks is going to see exactly how the pattern evolves across Asia and the western Pacific over the next 3-5 days. We think the pattern here is chaotic and complex it's probably moreso across that part of the globe. This may also be tied into the MJO given how strong that signal is but ultimately how the pattern exactly sets up across the western U.S. will have huge impacts for us. Until that SE ridge signal weakens (which there is some support for that) we could just as easy end up in an above-average temp regime with cutters as we can a colder pattern with snow chances.

Was pleasantly happy not to see or encounter any ice upon heading out the door this morning.

Snowpack blows. 1) You gotta do walking detours when your shortcuts get all buried in snow. Sure you could walk through the snow but not if its very deep. You could fall and get trapped and be buried until spring. 2) Sometimes it can impede driving...like pulling out of side streets or within parking lots. It's just a giant Mount Washington of Snow. 3) It makes it feel even colder. 4) You can get snow in your shoes (this ties into #1 I guess). 5) When it melts everything becomes a mud pit. 6) If it's too much...you run out of places to put the snow. 7) Snow pack blows.

I'd be real curious to see how snow-climo has changed dating back to when records began at each climo station. Like I wonder if in the earlier years you either had (And talking about DJFM) 1) a more even month-to-month distribution of snow climo 2) greater DJ totals I wonder if the changing state of climate has impacted in this regard. It's pretty interesting how we seem to fare better in the transition from a hemispheric state of cold season to warm season than we do in the transition from warm season to cold season. Maybe b/c (especially now in the times of a warmer climate) the degree of warmth deeper into the fall and early winter season is just so much greater now and we're still "flushing that out" going through early winter.

I am heavily leaning towards F5. I loved alot of what they offered and the graphics were great.

ahhh should have guessed that was wxbell. I've been looking for a new subscription place. debating between wxbell and F5. weathermodels blows

what website is that graphic from? it's cute

I'm ready to start measuring in feet

At least (I guess) it seems apparent that if the PV does split one piece will end up displaced over southern Canada. The northern tier of the country is going to be a breeding ground for storms in that case...and given the southern stream looks to remain active you phase any rotating piece of energy with that southern stream and you're going to get some big coastal's (at least potential). But regardless of southern stream involvement or phasing...there are going to be plenty of chances within that northern stream. The Arctic airmass pretty much gets displaced with the Arctic with the Arctic being replaced by a modified combination of cT/mT air

I actually had a dream last night there was a MASSIVE high risk...spanned like ND/SD all the way into New England.

that too.

Talk about a roller coaster weather pattern moving through the first week of January. It's pretty ridiculous..on both extremes with the the degree of cold across the PAC NW and parts of the northern Plains and GFS getting mid 50's dews as far north as IN/IL with 60's into the TN Valley. These next few weeks will have it all...record warmth, record cold, blizzards, high end severe events...don't just buckle up around your waist, buckle your chest thing too.