weatherwiz

It seems that we're getting an increased number of cool season setups and it also seems like we're getting lower-end setups to actually produce. This gets into the EF-0 stuff but given the warmer waters we're seeing increased llvl CAPE values with higher shears in place. I think dual-pol has also helped sizably in identifying quick spinups but as "garbage" as those seem they are still important to identify. But I really do miss the 90's. I know sometimes our perception is far different than reality but it seemed we used to get several solid squall lines every summer. I always used to get pissed though b/c these things would get to Hartford, completely fall apart, and then sometimes rebuild east. But those years not only had solid squall lines...but we would also get some decent nocturnal events too (especially August). August 9, 2000 was wild.

Let's do it...need this to happen. BADLY

There's some hope!!! 7/10/89 repeat????

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Sitting outside playing cards and it’s super toasty. Very hot

Maybe we can at least get some cold pool hailers

Grass is grass and will do what it wants

I think once you have a credit history built up it isn't as detrimental to carry some credit card debt. I was able to get myself out of $6K in credit card debt last year...took a while but once I got it way down my credit score shot up like crazy...got it close to 800 at one point. But I'm back in $5K lol...mostly b/c there was a huge debacle with insurance when I got 5 teeth extracted in May so I had to pay the $3,000 out-of-pocket. But hopefully I'll get some of that covered and I can put the reimbursement towards the debt.

It highly depends on how much of your limit you're using/ If you have a $5,000 limit but carrying a $3,000 balance...that's going to hurt you vs. carrying like a $300 balance.

Yeah drought talk gets way over-played in our region. I don't get the fetish. Even TV outlets within the region will show the maps and talk about it. I mean I guess it is a time filler with nothing going on but we are not in a drought.

And just because people have to water their lawns and gardens a few extra times a week doesn't mean drought either

Drought and New England should never be used in the same sentence. These "drought monitor" charts are brutal. There is a difference between drought and dry soils.

It's coming down on the moderate side here in Springfield. This is miserable...absolutely miserable. It's so cold that my computer won't even display the temperature. It just says, "Rain to Stop"...when, Christmas???? This is terrible...I'm actually about to make a cup of hot cocoa

Certainly seems plausible we could see some isolated activity given the presence of some weak instability and modestly cold mid-level temperatures, but I agree...sometimes these can yield some very nice crispy towers which are fun to look at. In fact, I really dig those. Maybe a better likelihood along terrain-induced influences for any development?

maybe we can generate weak mid-level vortices and watch birds get caught and whirlwind across the sky

Agreed...this could be overdone or underdone. I think there arguments that can be made for both cases. While we don't have those intense lower baroclinic gradients like we do during the cool season, we do have higher instability so the question becomes, how much does that compensate? But in the essence, PWATs are very high along a narrow corridor and you do have a strengthening southerly component to the llvl flow which should aid in convergence along the boundary. This may be a situation where western areas cash in again when it's eastern areas which need it most

Major differences between some of the models. With these differences, however, it should be noted there is strong agreement that there will be a narrow north-to-south axis of showers and areas of heavier rains it's just a question of where the diffuse warm front and stronger llvl forcing setup. West of 91 obviously stands the best chance for some heavier rains but that could also be as far west as the HV. Really challenging forecast here b/c the warm front (as diffuse as it is) is quite sloped.

This is just utterly depressing. I feel like Frosty the Snowman with someone slowly removing my top hat and laughing as I slowly melt away into a puddle of nothing-ness.

I can access! Woah this is awesome thanks!

Does anyone know if there is a NBM verification similar to this anywhere?

Could see some nice rain tomorrow night

Yeah we had that somewhat similar scenario a few weeks back but just didn't pan out. We'll see what happens moving forward. I think climatologically the period with greatest severe potential is like mid-June into mid-July so we're already into this period. It's one thing to get a favorable pattern, but its a whole other ordeal to get perfect timing of everything (we know this to be very true in winter too lol).

I believe that stood as the largest hail record in CT until 05/15/2018 (I think there was baseball hail in CT during that event). What's really bizarre is that storm occurred along a backdoor cold front. But there was an EML in place with some enhanced shear and enough llvl moisture present to get something to pop. It takes some serious updraft velocities to get hail that big.

NAM with a big soaker tomorrow night too

NBM pushes BDL into the upper 70's tomorrow...GFS and NAM several degrees lower