weatherwiz

Regardless of the dual low a good chunk of the region would get some CCB goods. The CCB too may be quite wide

yeah there's going to be potential for some areas to get 1-3'' well before the storm. some decent llvl lift well ahead

If a post could ever be pinned, this would be the one.

The SREF plumes? They're alright...just a good way to quickly (and easily) illustrate spread.

Even at BOS you have a high spread

Interesting to note the number of members on the very high end here. Mean being skewed by members which probably have very close to 0''. This just goes to show the degree of spread which continues to exist:

The GFS is to coastals as the Mets are to baseball

Yeah it's been said but truth of the matter is we've really been in the time period where differences are going to occur. It's not highly common to see model-to-model consistency or even run-to-run consistency 4-5 days or sometimes even as little as 3 days out. I think some are just a bit overanxious. If one just looks at SLP/QPF alone these differences and inconsistencies seem much worse than they really are. As stated several times, very subtle differences between the key features in the mid-levels will have big implications at the surface. The changes needed to get a major storm for the majority of the region are very small. In fact, there is probably a higher chance the majority see a major storm then the majority not seeing a major storm. The biggest takeaways (even with yesterday's runs) is each subsequent and model has had improvements with the key features...whether or not that translated down to the surface is not very important at the time range (but will get more important today). It's all good and fun b/c it's discussion but we all have the tendency to focus too much on certain details in time frames we really shouldn't be.

blowing snow and snow amount. flooding isn't incorporated into this. Snow Amount, Snow load, blowing snow, ground blizzard, flash freeze, and ice accumulation

Got some extreme on the WSSI

Today's 12z runs should steer us in a direction which will be geared towards the outcome. Even if we continue to see some divergence I think we'll be able to piece together which way to hedge.

Not even sure what to make of this run. The upper-level look was pretty ugly. Guess just have to wait and see what the GEFS show. If the mean is east or there is more east members that might give some merit to this run but if mean is west or more west members this can maybe be tossed.

My gut says as we get closer we'll see the NAM reflect these changes aloft at the surface. The most important thing we want to continue seeing are changes (in the positive direction) aloft. The confluence discussed though is something that needs to be considered too.

Just the upper-levels alone...you're going to have a rapid blossoming of precipitation well west

NAM will become very useful when it's really time to zone in one mesoscale aspects (banding, potential subsidence)

the differences between the handling of the southern stream vs 18z is insane. definitely giving more credence that the 18z was messed up

Bingo

I think the typical consensus is once you start getting inside of 3 days so probably pretty close. But because of the continued uncertainties they might be useful even inside day 3. This is because if you have more members leaning in one direction, even if it's opposing the op, it may be hard to ignore that probability.

72 hours...wow

at 66hr

That's what I love with bufkit...the cobb11. Seems to do pretty well with ratios. Although sometimes I think maybe slightly overdone but usually I'll just go with a few ticks below what it's output is (depending on the situation)

Sweet 18z EPS rolling out. Trying to telepathically send good vibes.

Another chance to see big snow totals if the 10:1 maps are failing

I just saw a spider crawl from under the front door up the door...which means it came in from outside. I read somewhere back in the day that if spiders are trying to get inside before a snowstorm it means big snow coming