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weatherwiz

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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    river tubing for the chickens
  2. weatherwiz
    I wonder if there is an interaction at play with the s/w over the Great Lakes area...storm really seems to strengthen up around NJ...also looks like it may even keep the center perhaps a bit offshore...though that could be resolution driven?
  3. weatherwiz
    Yes. This is in dangerous territory...discounting any type of solution or letting guard down just is not a good idea. Even though ensembles seem to have a rather solid agreement on what occurs that still needs to be taken with caution...only b/c the evolution over the next 24...even 48 hours holds the key. Too my untrained eye there does seem to be some better organization transpiring over the past few hours.
  4. weatherwiz
    life's too bad sometimes
  5. weatherwiz
    Model Intensity Guidance for the most part does not go above category 1...still though, given the area this is in I would not dismiss anything at this juncture. These next 24-hours are huge. I mean any sort of slight trend towards favorable conditions and this could take off in a heart beat...and we've seen that happen numerous times within this region.
  6. weatherwiz
    I wonder if this will be upped a bit at 2:00...latest recon did find an area of pretty strong winds
  7. weatherwiz
    I could envision a scenario where convection tires to develop but it struggles to become deep enough to really utilize the ingredients...only exception may be right along the warm front. You can definitely see areas of warming aloft on various forecast soundings which is not very good to see. I kinda like northeast PA for anything. May see overlap of best ingredients occur there...plus some extra lift from the warm front.
  8. weatherwiz
    something must be up with the PSU bufkit page b/c I have been having issues with bufget all week. I swear...there's always fooking problems somewhere...like WTF??? People can't fix stuff? The NWS products...more specifically the SPC page has been nothing but pure garbage the past few months.
  9. weatherwiz
    I like the pants dying aspect
  10. weatherwiz
    I just thought of something...we could see TOR's ripping through Sunday taking down trees and power poles and whatever if left standing is taken down by Isaias Tuesday/Wednesday.
  11. weatherwiz
    sounds like the former Red Sox SS prospect
  12. weatherwiz
    Biggest key is basically where this stands when it's around the latitude of NC/SC and where the eye is. If it's off the coast and in positioning for strengthening...well then we gotta start thinking this is going to be a big hit.
  13. weatherwiz
    12z guidance is pretty impressive...gotta keep in mind the inhibiting factors though. If you follow Anthony Maisello on Twitter he's laid those out perfectly. Warming mid-level temps/capping and subsidence. Anyways, anytime you see theta-e values that rich combined with the degree of shear in place...you're eyes better be open.
  14. weatherwiz
    OMG
  15. weatherwiz
    it does seem like its trying to get its act together. some impressive hot towers blowing up. Also, HOW THE HELL DO YOU PRONOUNCE THiS SUCKERS NAME???
  16. weatherwiz
    This is a completely different scenario than Fay...IMO. Perhaps the second half of the week would be more likely to be on the drier side as the flow flattens out but regardless of what happens with Isaias the flow is strong and southerly with an approaching front. Even if it were to go into FL...I am sure we would tap into moisture and advect it northward.
  17. weatherwiz
    ehh not sure I totally agree with that. Given the position of the trough axis and mean flow ahead of it we'll get typical summer-time pop up downpours and t'storms daily...but to your point certainly nothing that would provide widespread relief.
  18. weatherwiz
    I'm sure too the size has to play a significant factor in the progression of it as it moves up the coast. I thought too that these systems typically expand as they move north in latitude (especially if the system is transitioning from tropical to sub-tropical or extra-tropical). A smaller system could also perhaps mean a higher probability for some significant impact on a localized level?
  19. weatherwiz
    Talk about agreement We could see that for a blizzard here and the storm would still go OTS or cut west
  20. weatherwiz
    Ahhh interesting...thanks. This system does look to be rather small and compact. This is great, thank you!
  21. weatherwiz
    I completely agree with your thoughts...makes ton of sense and there is historical backing to those thoughts as well. What site did you get that second graphic from?
  22. weatherwiz
    Seems like it is also being impacted by some westerly shear? I haven't looked at shear forecasts moving forward but is shear to become more or less favorable?
  23. weatherwiz
    Do you think we see any type of PRE with this? Models look a bit dry for Monday (though they get wetter Monday night) but given the flow Monday with some lift you have to wonder if we'll see some heavy rain around...maybe not exactly PRE.
  24. weatherwiz
    I also recall the euro doing a similar solution with (I think it was Michael?) last year? That is certainly possible...I think we'll know just how possible though by this evening. I am shocked this was kept a cat 1 given the recent recon flights. But, if we start seeing signs of strengthening or organization over the next several hours this solution IMO can be tossed pretty quickly...but for now it's something to consider.
  25. weatherwiz
    All solutions are possible at this stage, however, all these ENS probs are pretty pointless right now. I mean confidence in what happens with Isaias over the next 24-hours is extremely low...so forget about 4-5 days down the road. The prospects for 4-5 days down the road is highly dependent on evolution over the next 24-36 hours so until we get through this period what models shows 4-5 days out is rather pointless.
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