weatherwiz

I did see that movie when I was super young…I think that’s what started my spider fear and speaking of spiders is this one of those ones that are supposed to fall from the sky???

My uncle used to see them when he lived at a stable when taking care of horses. This is a huge part of climate change that nobody talks about…big massive spiders starting to populate the north b/c the climate is becoming conducive for them. Pretty soon wolf spiders will dominate and we’ll be seeing brown recluses everywhere along with black widows and the Australian massive spider guy. This really isn’t a good situation

I don’t think we can fully enjoy summer until we get into constant 85-90+ with dews > 70

It's like a slow blow to the gut

GFS has a fairly good looking severe threat next Friday!!!!! WHY DOES IT HAVE TO BE A WEEK OUT??? It probably will become more poopy as we move through the week....ughhhh this is a pathetic summer for convection...absolute crap. Can't get anything solid....nothing good...not even any decent setups.

I don't think you could draw a more perfect hodograph...maybe just slightly strengthen the shear more between each major level.

ruined my card game last night

This breeze is PISSING me off. Trying to play cards outside and the breeze be blowing them away

I think that is a very underrated correlation to DJF NAO. I remember back when I used to really dig into long-range looking at that correlation and it seemed rather striking.

agreed

Around 80 and humid with CU and TCU in the sky. That = summer

Very impressive area of -SSTA's in the northern Atlantic there. Definitely knocking the AMO down a bit. Likely a product of the persistent vortex in that area and countless systems tracking along it but that is certainly playing an influence on our weather too IMO...especially with the enhancement of any BD potential

I read it as through now not moving forward...but to your point, yes moving forward that signal does dampen out quite a bit. And also to your point about the decreasing seasonal lag is we don't always need a massive ridge at H5 to get big heat into here. If we get a very strong sfc high across the Southeast or just off the Southeast Coast that can certainly pump in big heat (and humidity) all while maintaining a more northwesterly flow aloft(indicative of a subtle trough or downwind of a ridge crest)...and this is how we get our higher end severe events (ala summer 1995).

I think there is some degree of accuracy with a blocky Arctic. I know this time of year Arctic Oscillations typically don't correlate well to the pattern as their signals weaken, however, if you look at 500mb height anomalies for the first week of the month there is some argument for an Arctic-driven pattern. The ultimate issue though has been that pesky vortex to our northeast (which has seem to become a fixture the past several years during the late spring to about late June) which I guess brings about...is the Arctic driving this fixture?

May have to watch northeastern MA for some development later this afternoon if enough mid-level moisture can hang around.

Keep an eye out in far SE CT, RI, and SE MA

Parts of RI and SE MA could get hit fairly good with that line south of Long Island. Wouldn't be surprised to see some localized areas of wind damage.

Thus far all convection is behaving. Not even seeing any weak areas of rotation. There was a brief TDS in NJ a bit after 5:00 AM but everything here looks good. Seeing a stronger push of 0-3km CAPE but storm motions seem more parallel to the flow which is likely limiting rotation.

0z HRRR pretty robust with a few nasty looking thunderstorms moving across CT during the morning. We’ll see if we can muster up enough llvl CAPE

Was that the same conference we got kicked out of the bar for the bottle cap incident (which was a total mistake)?

Yeah could be interesting.

It's a shame we get the dry slot in the mid-levels and subsidence on the backside of the morning stuff. Maybe though some embedded strong storms with the morning stuff right along the nose of higher CAPE/shear?

Is it so much to ask to get a light show like this

Second video down shows some type of lowering on the bottom left. Hard to tell b/c it's dark but maybe a wall cloud

Just non-stop! Hope we can get this here soon. THIS SUMMER BLOWSSSSSSSSSSSSS