weatherwiz

same. confluence at least looks not as pronounced as the NAM and both streams look good too ...so far

These are my favorite maps to look at

Left em in the dust with no bus to go back and pick them up

I am hardcore praying the GFS is west...even if it's just a smidgity-poo west.

18z NAM BDL bufkit

looks extremely similar to my map

It makes it worse that there really is no middle ground (at least back this way) it's either very low end or a total crush job.

The NAM seems to be locking in

That is one heck of an unstable layer. You may have to issue SVR's with heavy snow

This band may end up sitting and pivoting. If that happens...oh my lord. oh lord

THEY END UP CONSOLIDATING OH MY GOD!!!!! CRUSHER FOR CONNECTICUT!!!! May have to pull out a 30-36'' contour somewhere OMGGG

The dual band look comes back. This is a pounding for Connecticut

I'd maybe start getting concerned 12z tomorrow if we're continuing to see some of what we're seeing. There's just so much time (even though it doesn't feel like it) really. Hopefully the 0z balloon launches will provide significant value...we can at least see how models are initializing heights in the West. This doesn't help with everything but gives a small idea.

Given how subtle the differences are of capture vs. late capture or no capture...we seriously may have too. I just don't think we're going to get any consistency or agreement on this until it either happens or doesn't

gotta watch that confluence here...

That's very true. I wonder if we'd be better off having an airmass that wasn't as cold. given how cold it is aloft and the type of dendrites we'll likely produce, I would think this can make them more susceptible to being ripped apart. IIRC correctly, I think ratios in 2013 and 2015 under the band were like around 15:1 or so right?

Gotcha, thanks!

We never touched upon this in any classes but when taking wind into account for it's impact on ratios is it surface winds, winds aloft, a combination of both and then I guess what would you subtract off in terms of ratios for wind? This is something I have zero knowledge on.

may have to make some slight adjustments to it...the west cutoff is going to be extremely sharp. but this is playing out how I was envisioning so can only hope that continues lol.

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

can someone post H7? It's quite lagged on weathermodels. Curious to see where it closes off/tracks

Maybe a bit stronger and more digging with the northern stream? Actually looks like a bit more robust development of precip within the mid-Atlantic region getting going through the day. Or maybe that's just more of a reflection of moisture along the front

I was going to wait until today but I felt pretty confident yesterday after the 12z suite. I'll admit some of the afternoon runs were certainly a little nerve-racking. But since then we have continued to see subtle changes in the positive direction at H5. While this hasn't been reflected at the surface (yet) on some models, models are often lagged with reflecting surface changes in response to H5 changes...but as stated there are surface features which could end up having a much larger impact (dual-low for example). As long as those continue I am highly confident we will get extremely heavy snow into much of Connecticut. It will not take much to pile up the snow given the ratios and degree of lift that will be associated with the band.

Sure there are surface features (convection, double-barrel low structure) but these are so complex and it's extremely difficult to know if these will materialize or not. There are some instances they do and other instances they don't (even when you have the model agreement).