weatherwiz

At BDL!

LEAVING WORK NOW!!!!!

This may be getting ready to become a big wind producer

Kinda odd how BDL's dewpoint is only 70...that's like 2-3+ lower than around them

the line is moving super slow though. not sure how quickly the stronger dynamics aloft are accelerating southeast but hopefully the slow movement of the line allows time for them to slide southeast? IDK

This summer has been the worse. I was so pumped...literally live about a 1-2 minute drive from the airport and was working from home...that was a perfect recipe to catch storms. I have not had the opportunity ONCE to sit at the airport and watch storms come in. The few times I think BDL got hit I was down in Newtown. Maybe August can deliver goods but we tend to get nocturnal stuff...which is great but you can't see cloud features.

doubt I'll be back in Windsor Locks in time...damn

yup...bulk shear is pretty nice, however, vertical shear relatively weak. Looks like best is actually behind the cold front (something else we usually get screwed over with)

probably b/c the coverage will be more isolated-to-scattered. there could be like a swath where damage is a bit more concentrated though

MCD watch possible.

I meant to say that instead of mostly haha

Full sun is certainly good but honestly in a situation where you have poor lapse rates there isn't a whole heck of a lot of difference between full sun and mostly sun...I mean if the difference is like 3-4F in temperature then yeah there is a big difference but when you have poor lapse rates your ceiling about how unstable you can become is very limited. A temp difference of 1-2F can also be a difference maker in CAPE but regardless we're only looking at 1000-1500 J of MLCAPE today...maybe 2000 where any dewpoint pooling occurrs.

I've always found the marine layer/convective connection rather interesting. I do sometimes wonder if too much emphasis gets placed on the marine layer...during the spring/early summer I can certainly see it playing a big role, however, I think it also depends. First off, the marine layers usually aren't relatively thick...but I'm sure they still do slow down the upward acceleration of parcels through this layer, however, when it's hot and humid or when you have steep lapse rates these should be enough to overcome that. I wanted to use this for my senior thesis but I did not have enough time but my thinking is that the biggest culprit for us (outside of weaker lapse rates) is lack of stronger dynamical support and large-scale forcing (though these tend to be greater in NNE which is why like northern ME does very well for severe (IMO). But down this way we often see thunderstorms die and it gets blamed on sea-breeze...I don't necessarily agree with that. I think what happens is the storms start to outrun the better forcing/dynamics which gives the aided boost into keeping convection deep. Otherwise, convection is just relaying on large surface CAPE (needed to initiate the convection) and meh mixed-layer CAPE (which helps the storms build in the vertical and when there is enough we get the pockets of severe). But when you're only relying on instability and weak forcing/shear the instability is enough to build it and the lack of the latter prevents it from doing much more.

I think that hindered things in CT too yesterday...I noticed there was a bit of MLCIN which seemed to correlate with the SE flow. This is why you really need an EML in place when dealing with a SE flow...or have SST's which are virtually similar to the dewpoints.

Today is a day where instability may be a bit weaker, but we have better dynamics and forcing. the better dynamics/forcing should result in thunderstorms being more widespread but instability (well lack of stronger and deeper instability) will keep any severe more localized.

oof that is a pretty classic structure. If you were to show that to someone and ask them what they were to expect from that I bet most would say a TOR

Maybe today will work out. Who knows...all I know is NO MORE convective threads after this...none...zilch. Not happening ever again

can you tell I'm severe deprived

Might have to get dressed and go to the airport in a few. Hope it at least strengthens more

brutal...just brutal

I'm going to bed. this is stupid

looks like an inflow notch just west of Northampton

well congrats MA again