weatherwiz

It's insane...not just differences with the strength of the ridge but orientation too. The pattern over the Pacific is quite chaotic. Probably need to get that resolved before anything else

Still seeing significant differences regarding the ridging in the West. Rather sizable differences too. Obviously it's the NAM towards the end of it's range but that too is vastly different with the ridge and the run-to-run differences between Euro/GFS yield the same scenario.

by the time one finally finishes reading it the storm will be over

Don't need to name every storm but that could be left for bigger events. At least TWC does have a criteria for doing so.

Too be fair...there is actually value in naming winter storms but IMO that should come from NOAA. I'm not opposed to TWC doing it, but the issue is you get many different outlets which do it (such as local news) and the same storm can have different names. but it terms of communication purposes (if you're forecasting for multiple geographic areas or have a large client-base if you're in the private sector) it actually provides tremendous value, especially if it's a storm that will impact a large geographic area or multiple regions (cross country storm, for example).

Had some talks with Ray on f5. Was debating between that and weatherbell but I'm going f5. (I just hope John Cena doesn't misinterpret this).

it's very slow. I think it became popular when it was first created b/c it was cheap but there's been hardly any enhancements since then. The graphics are not great, it's not very user-friendly, and it doesn't even have a ton of products. Like for the Euro and winter products all it has is MSLP + precip type, wind chill stuff, and stupid snow maps.

ahhh thank you! I checked in model lab before and I have zero clue why I wouldn't click on EPS global cyclones I'm trying to get f5model lab soon...I liked weathermodels at first but it's pretty lackluster really. And poorly organized.

where the heck do you find the individual members on weathermodels? I always have this problem...but I don't usually look at individual members I've looked in these places.

Agreed with this...especially in such a volatile setup...they do tend to do the explosive deepening a tad earlier and subsequently occlude earlier. In this scenario the deform band will essentially sit an rot

Euro holding back southern stream energy ~D5...shocker.

Probably see some gravity waves with this leading to even more localized fun

One little early concern is potential for a pretty high DGZ based on the thermals...but the gradient from the sfc well into the upper-levels of the atmosphere is insane...the degree of lift on the favored sides of the lows will be through the roof. Way too early to really get into these specifics but just a thought. At this stage, the thing I love most is the evolution of the ULJ through New England...if there were to be a book written right now, that should be the cover page.

Not necessarily.

That's a great look for some pretty hefty ulvl divergence.

Great to see 850/700mb lows develop and close off as they're passing by. Seeing 700 close off overhead is not desired but that's kinda insignificant right now.

Some fairly sizable differences too with the evolution and structure of the ridge in the West.

Bingo...that's exactly what we would want...rapid deepening to occur at our latitude. This would also limit any potential for warmer air streaming into the region in the event of a coastal hugger.

For sure. And I get the love for them because of the wind potential but that just ends up screwing snow growth and ratios and essentially if you aren't under one of those bands...you're sucking pixie dust (or something just above that). This is where QPF huggers really need to keep a realistic perspective here. This is a situation where mesoscale and very high-resolution models get their pay because they will really do a good job at painting this picture. I just remember these type of storms being a pain b/c it is really impossible to portray the type of gradients that develop within forecast snow maps. one town can get like 20'' and a few towns away like 8'' lol.

maybe in the ocean somewhere :lo: Historically, such situations where we see storms bomb out and develop such low pressure's at the center usually result in major headaches from not just a forecasting perspective but expectations. With tropical systems, how does the precipitation shield generally evolve? The precipitation shield tends to become more banded in nature...while the physical processes between these storms and tropical are vastly different, this is one commonalty...a more banded precipitation shield. So with this you develop very strong lift within narrow areas and then very strong subsidence between the bands.

I would much, much, much prefer to NOT have a cyclone bomb out or become as deep as advertised.

I appreciate your love of the extremes. You know how to enjoy both. In the summer you take advantage of the warmth/humidity and enjoy it the best way possible (pool side) and in the winter...you somehow enjoy the cold. kudos

For sure...big time. That's where they get true flash freezes. If you ever follow the Winter Storm Severity Index from the WPC you'll see fairly common during the winter months areas shaded in moderate or higher impacts from flash freeze. I've never really seen any shading here about the limited or minor. People say our weather changes quickly here...we've got nothing on the Inter-mountain West through Great Plains.

Flash freeze is the most over-used, beaten to death term in New England. There is a major difference between things icing up and a flash freeze. When temperatures go from 50's to lower 20's or teens in an hour or less span...then talk about flash freeze. Going from 46 to 42 to 37 to 32 to 30 to 27 in a several hour span doesn't constitute or result in a flash freeze.

This may not be a bad call after all...just probably maybe displaced a bit too far south lol