weatherwiz

I just wonder how much of a signal or how much of a factor ENSO just plays anymore (obviously in a strong or super-strong event it's going to heavily influence the global configuration) but it just seems the correlations with ENSO just aren't that strong anymore. Now perhaps what could be happening is as the data set continues to expand and we're seeing more variations within the same type of signal regime but ENSO events of late don't seem to be behaving like similar ENSO events of the past. ENSO gets a significant chunk of attention when it comes to seasonal forecasting (especially for the northern hemisphere winter) but I seriously wonder if the main driver is the stratosphere and the stratosphere-troposphere interaction. Now perhaps we're just in a cycle where the PV and it's evolution (both SPV and TPV) has so much weight on the evolution of the northern hemisphere pattern. In terms of the NAO though, I was doing a little bit looking last summer and one thing that intrigued me with a potential indication of how the NAO may evolve or behave moving into the winter was zonal wind anomalies within the Arctic and around Greenland. I don't remember off hand the signal but I want to say easterly (which would make most sense) zonal wind anomalies around the Arctic/Greenland in the fall seemed to correlate to more of a -NAO potential moving into winter. The biggest problem with indices such as the NAO/AO though is there is too much emphasis on the monthly/seasonal value. Perhaps that helps with a long-term pattern configuration, however, it's the variations and transitions on the shorter-term which play a significant role in sensible weather changes...same with the EPO/PNA as well.

Nice touch, Mr. Trump

Kinda random but I've been thinking about this lately. There were some articles on this a few months ago but haven't seen anything since but I'm interested in your opinion. Do you think a decrease in flights has had any impact on the performance on forecast models and if so, how significant of an impact is it?

My guess is some of the west coast states (WA/OR...perhaps CA and ID) average less. (After this post I'll do a quick google check...I'm sure there is a map out there lol). ME does average around 2 tornadoes per year though...my guess is that could be slightly higher but they can get some mean looking supercells in the deep summer months...far enough south to tap into the warmer/humid air and just far enough north to usually get better jet support or steeper lapse rates

ME is also rather underrated for severe wx...especially northern ME. Unfortunately too many trees and not enough people but they can get some nasty looking supercells.

depends on the size of the house being lofted into the air by a tornado

Hoping that blows through BDL. I want to get pounded with hail,...pound me, pound me, pound me

You might be be in a terrible spot. I would certainly watch closely

That is a great idea! Hopefully I can get some time put aside soon so I can get back to this. I wish they taught Python at school but it was MATLAB and it wasn't really taught lol. Heck, even the intro programming (or whatever it was called) wasn't really taught. The class was just looking at Powerpoints lol.

I could see a few large hailers/wet microbursts out in E MA today...even perhaps the Cape.

i JUST saw this. I was there last week...****kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk. Really tough to tell though with that water tower of course right in the way. also tough to tell these things with a still shot

that cell blew up in northeast CT

big downpour with a rumble of thunder

35 knots of bulk shear just northeast of RI with 150 J of 3km CAPE and 1,000 J of MLCAPE. Probably a nice little spot to watch for today

Looks like drier air works in aloft too (outside of eastern sections). With dewpoints generally in the mid 60's and poor lapse rates we can only realize so much instability today. Coastal southeast ME through southern NH, and northeast MA will be the prime spot today. Can't rule out stronger cells getting a decent mid-level meso which could perhaps lead to the risk for small hail

Only issue with western areas is shear looks to decrease. Also looks like there could be a decent instability gradient across eastern areas and sometimes those areas can be favorable locations. Looks like the HRRR wants to favor eastern sections with more isolated activity further west.

This looked a bit better Thursday or Friday. We really just can't buy anything. Today seems to favor eastern areas...southern ME, NH, and eastern MA. Looks like that's where the better overlap of CAPE/shear will exist and perhaps some better convergence. So perhaps some damaging wind gusts out that way.

This is a great storm.

It’s coming!!!!! Yes!!!! I’m in a hotel room too...have tripod at window taking time lapse

Please!!!!!!

I’m probably going to be melting real soon but this summer is fooking ridiculous. This is the biggest load of bullshit I’ve ever seen. This isn’t summer...it’s crap. Big fooking deal it got humid out and we’ve had some 90’s. It was freaking cold through much of June. Even the west had snow in June. Monday doesn’t look good anymore. Screw these freaking models...all over the place. Don’t even run them past 2-3 days anymore...they’re crap. I wonder if perhaps less flights are really impacting data availability? Ehhh who cares...doesn’t change the fact that this summer sucks. If we don’t get anything good this week you can bet a melt is in store.

This lack of convection is actually starting to piss me off. These 3km CAPE values should be sufficient to at least make for a few interesting cells. Am noting though the wind field isn't rather expansive...greatest helicity values actually confined to a relatively small area and displaced from the CAPE. Figures...POS SNE junk BS

I was doing pretty well with Python last summer...then the fall came and I got super swamped. I forget what I was using...was either Jupyter or Conda. But I was having fun with all the mapping packages/data packages. mpl_toolkits, cartopy (this was BRUTAL to get to work...absolutely BRUTAL...took me weeks and dozens and dozens of hours), matplotlib, numpy, etc. I really need to get back into it...only issue is time to devote. Like I need to devote at least several hours a day to it so I can not only understand it but grasp it. Do you know of any oneline python courses that are strictly designed for meteorology? I would certainly pay for those.