weatherwiz

Well I'm really hoping things will quiet down across the country in terms of winter weather soon so I can really get back into this. Anyways, I have started to go back and re-do this whole project. I have completed the list of La Nina winters by strength (weak, moderate, strong/super-strong). When looking at structure (west-based, basin-wide, east-based), I want to go about this in a way that is a bit more complex. Originally, I was doing structure based on DJF SSTA's, however, I think structure evolution also needs to be taken into account. For example, you could have east-based during the fall and that could evolve into a west-based structure moving through winter. So for this, I am doing SSTA composites for OND, NDJ, and DJF. When I get into the core of the composites (500mb height anomalies, Sea-level pressure anomalies, temperature anomalies, Outgoing longwave radiation anomalies, etc.) I am going to break winter into two halves. December 1 - January 30 February 1 - March 31 Doing this will now incorporate March into my composites which I didn't have before and obviously we know winter can be a tale of two halves. I think doing this breakdown too will elicit better signals of pattern change periods in the historical record.

Between 2.5” and 2.75” here. Couldn’t get exact b/c I forgot my glasses when I went outside

I know now with the other reports but it caught me off guard. Roads finally getting covered here

Thunder!!!! I think I just had thunder!!!

Lightning!!

Coating on the grass but nada on roads

Snow has started!!!!!

FWIW, 18z NAM/GFS initialized and are WAYYYY high with dewpoints for this current time

yeah I used some and got the different results. The one with arctan yielded 31, there was another calculator which calculated it based on temp/RH and that was 35. Then the "third rule" was 36. But I think the arctan is more accurrate

Actually...it might be somewhere around 35/36? but getting varying results based on equation used. EDIT: just got 31 using the long ass equation with arctan.

Guessing around 34

Next time stamp is much better and then it's all hell after that

GFS bufkit for ORH. Bufkit definitely rips looking over several locations, but noticing some subsidence at several locations too, even on the HRRR

Just look at Denver. How often do you see them sometimes 70-80+ the day before snow and they'll still get a foot lol

If I got anything close to that in Springfield I will go the entire summer without making a severe thread

Agreed...this has been a bit problem is a quite a bit of dry air to contend with. I think the airmass is even drier then Monday's. It's going to take some time to really saturate I think. Also, the storm ingests a ton of dry air from the southwest. Looping RH at 500/700 is pretty uneasy looking. Sure, where you're lift is stronger and ulvl divergence is greater you'll offset this some, but we're playing with time here.

This is going to be brutally ugly I think. I'd still be extremely skeptical with these QPF outputs, especially on such a widespread level.

It depends on the run and what its spitting out in terms of snowfall.

DO watch...it's incredible. My girlfriend is a defense attorney and she was able to point stuff out. It certainly may be a case of Netflix catering to a view point but wow...I had some feelings.

Terrible...i was shocked to see ORD in a WSW when I woke up. That's one market I have to forecast for and looking at data today there was still no consistency or confidence.

I see that too

0z NAM early on and its so much slower with everything so far.Barely has the line getting into Memphis by 12z now

The GFS may actually end up not performing that well overall with this and not just talking about locally. I guess it also depends on what metrics you're evaluating, but the GFS has always been fast with everything. It was fast with the convection moving across the south and fast with timing of everything into the OV and Northeast. NAM was always slower with everything.