weatherwiz

meh GFS looks like a shortwave shredding or flattening mess. That's a pretty brutal flow aloft

Models always seem to be too aggressive (quick) in these cases. Maybe it's because of oceanic influences, but there seems to be a developing lag between FROPA's and rate of temperature decrease.

It is time

Well folks with winter (as in the actual definition of winter) quickly on the downward trend it's now time to gear towards the upcoming summer and more importantly, severe weather season. We really only have 3-full months left before we get to May 1 and the kickoff of severe season. The last few years have been quite intriguing as we've haven't had very active seasons...during the summer. But we have had several fall events, including several fall tornado-producing events. These seem to become more of a trend. Anyways, as winter heads towards the rear view mirror we now look ahead to severe weather season!!!!! With this let's let the countdown begin 101-days to go!!!!!

This isn't even looking terribly impressive within the mid-Atlantic where they have the WSW's.

Talked about it in classes a few times but the term "flash freeze" is definitely used way too much around these parts. It's difficult to get a true flash freeze around here. We think our temperature drops with Arctic fronts are wild but they are nothing compared to what happens in other areas of the country...particularly from the Inter-mountain West just east of the Rockies through the Plains and into the upper-Midwest.

I feel like in these type of set ups your highest snowfall totals typically occur closer to the coast because this is where there is greater enhancement with one reason being the strong temperature gradient between land/ocean temperature. You throw llvl fronts within this area and you vastly increase llvl convergence and subsequent upward vertical motion within this region. Also, being closer to a water source probably delays the onset of stronger dry air advection which occurs behind the front.

doubt it

It's really not a big deal for most. I still think there is going to be a strip of 1-3'' (localized 4'' amounts) but it is going to be very narrow and be confined closer to the coast (though not the immediate coast).

These Arctic fronts are a giant pain in the ass. Not only is this a major forecast challenge for up here but pretty much along the entire front stretching down into southern Texas. Models have been wavering back and forth since last Friday about the wintry potential across southern Texas. 18z NAM even looking a little juicer down there for tomorrow night...thankfully they get above-freezing Friday

One thing to really watch too is some of the 6z bufkit soundings actually indicated a very brief period where there's actually some pretty decent lift getting into the DGZ. Despite the initially warmer temperatures, we cool off substantially rather quickly (especially above the sfc). Ratios could really help out with pushing towards the higher spectrum of 3-4''. If precip can hang up a bit someone towards the coast (but inland from the immediate shoreline) may be able to snag 4'' for sure.

The strip of any heavier banding is going to be so narrow tomorrow. But there also may be a bit of re-development or I guess rejuvenation towards the coastal plain. NAM does get a secondary push of stronger frontogenesis through. I could see some max snowfall totals pushing 3-4'' in spots. Might see a pretty sharp cutoff between like 0.5'' and 4'' of snow.

It's early but this is already the post of the year

It goes through his backyard in winter

Was thinking of maybe doing a strip of 2-4'' but overall think the majority of higher totals will be more in the 1-3'' range. Really like the signal for some stronger llvl lift moving across southern Connecticut. Regardless, the Thursday morning commute is going to be quite slick.

That's where I get a little fuzzy on, but I believe in these type of setups that doesn't necessarily matter much. If the llvls are sufficiently cold and you're relying more on llvl dynamics than mid-levels you can still get heavier precipitation rates and decent snow growth. It's an instance where the majority of the focus is within the llvls. Sort of like with low-topped convection...you're really utilizing the llvl of the atmosphere and not very worried about mid/upper levels.

looks like there may be a little meso-low that pops along the front...that would help with keeping precip going a little longer. These things are always super challenging. Once out of every like 20 setups you get an overproducer.

We'll see widespread light snow over a large area but the best chance for any accumulations IMO is going to be within a very tight and narrow corridor where llvl convergence is maximized. seems to be heading in that direction. And for the front as a whole...even moving across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley's this is looking a bit juicer for them. Often times it's a race between dry air and precip cutting off but there's a quite a bit of moisture on the backside of this front.

Actually...I could envision a 2-4'' deal from southern CT through RI and into SE MA tomorrow night. That's some pretty impressive llvl lift along a narrow corridor. Ratios may start a little poopy but should improve relatively quickly.

I'm not entirely sure we see much accumulation from this but there continues to be a pretty good signal for a narrow zone of enhanced convergence right along the front. Some different signals though how quickly the system moves through. Could have best enhancement along the coastal plain

That's a pretty strong Arctic front coming through Thursday. These are always a challenge because they often tend to come with a bit more precipitation than initially modeled but it's always a question of the race between cold air and precip. ending. There does appear to be a very narrow zone of enhanced convergence so there my be a nice little band of precip which materializes. Don't think it will be anything to give anyone accumulations but could be a possibly near the coast where convergence may be higher.

didn't mean to imply that it was any warmer or colder than the 12z run

18z NAM coming in toasty. Guess I should drop the idea of thinking we could see a colder solution. This is going to blow here. Time to start thinking about May.

This is quite challenging. I'm not totally convinced yet we just full on torch down this way. It's certainly a concern but the GFS has been very persistent in wanting to pop that secondary and ever so slightly jogging southeast with everything. Meanwhile the NAM/Euro definitely want to go west. Looks like all the models are actually handling the main vorticity pretty consistently...looks like the bigger differences overall are with that shortwave digging through the Ohio Valley.

We're only a few weeks away from the May 1st thread!!!!