weatherwiz

Could be a pretty loud night tomorrow for some.

sounds awfully similar to drinking too much

Skin cancer potential from sunburn is pretty terrifying. This is something I worry about alot. One of my best friends from high school had his father pass away from skin cancer due to sunburns he would get when he was growing up.

Holy shit man...you better like get tested for skin cancer at some point down the road. And legit want to keep up with that. What does Chris Brown have to do with sunburn?

Over the weekend there were 27,323 tests done in CT and only 162 came back positive (0.59%). We've got to be approaching 3-4 weeks now in CT where the percent rate has been around or below 1%. Hospitalizations down to 54.

Correct, more often than not if you do a trajectory trace, our EML's derive from the southwestern U.S. I mean you can also get a bit more technical and say more the southern-tier of the Inter-mountain West region. You are correct, these are characterized by very dry mid-levels with sharp warming usually around 800mb-700mb then a rapid decrease of temperature with height above that (hence the steep lapse rate. And yes, typically they will traverse the crest of strong mid-level ridging with a westerly-to-northwesterly flow in the mid-levels. As for why they aren't more common the biggest factors really is the Gulf of Mexico and convective overturning. East of the Mississippi River (perhaps maybe even a bit farther west than this) the Gulf of Mexico is a major contributor to the climate of this region. For example, if you were to look at a national annual rainfall map you would see a significant gradient right around the Mississippi River. Warm/moist air from the Gulf of Mexico transporting northward (especially when you have a deep southerly flow) disrupts the structure of the EML so the capping associated with that warm layer is weakened which promote more mixing. In terms of convection, when you have widespread convective events you get outflow boundaries, convective overturning, latent heat release, turbulence, etc...all of these promote mixing which degrades the integrity of the EML. Michael Ekster (I also think radarman was an author as well) wrote a paper about 10-years ago regarding EML advection into the Northeast. It seems the best synoptic configuration for an EML to maintain it's integrity into our region was to have a strong 700mb height anomaly in the southeast U.S. (with the strongest anomalies I think in the TN Valley region) with a trough digging into the western U.S. This flow seemed to promote the northward transport of EML air farther north into the northern Plains...even into Canada where it is farther removed from the Gulf of Mexico, thus limiting potential influences from this moisture source. Also, this seemed to be yield the maintaining of the cap associated with the EML preventing mixing. There was also something else of interest too...actually will have to go back and refresh my memory on this but there was something weird about the trajectory course of previous EML events studied where the trajectory did a loop...at the time it wasn't sure what this was and why.

fairly rare. It's actually not *as* rare to get EML advection here, however, to time EML advection say with a cold front approaching is what is rare...It's just so difficult to do. Prior to 5/15/18 the last real EML event I think we had was June 1, 2011. I can't think of anything in between those two...perhaps some puesdo-EML events. (My memory with this stuff isn't as good as it used to be )

unfortunately not...though there could be some "steeper" lapse rates around Thursday (6-6.5 C/KM) which isn't terrible for around here...also with dews again near mid 70's that would compensate a bit for weaker lapse rates

Doesn't look very promising right now

Time to shift focus from heat to severe...the way summer should be

Can't sleep on Wednesday either...mainly western sections. In fact, there could be potential for a few warm front spinners.

GFS looks rather solid for Thursday. That's a pretty potent s/w digging in with ample shear and perhaps moderate instability. Might be an early start to the show too.

Hmm wow. Do you know what 850 or 925 temps were yesterday? My guess is probably similar? So maybe you can pull of like 93 again

Looks like warmest 925/850 temps go right through SE MA so once you start cranking good sun you should jump quick. Could certainly see you getting into mid 90’s? What was your high yesterday?

what did you do to stay cool?

Thursday has a pretty good look for a few wet microbursts. Best potential though may be east of the CT River.

I've heavily contemplated doing northern Plains rather than like southern Plains for chasing. Everyone loves May and early June in OK/KS, however, I think farther north offers just as much in terms of severe and without chaster convergence. Only issue I think is you can pretty much book a two week period in OK during late May well out and the odds of having at least one event are high. Waiting until like deeper in summer when they are active up north is a bit of a challenge...especially when factoring in taking time off of work. Some jobs you need to gives like months in advance.

I wonder how chasing is up that way.

the rapid RI is probably hindering the overall hail/tornado potential. Upscale growth will be very quick. Radar watching will be fun. Storms probably going from a TCU to 55K monsters in minutes lol

maybe LCL's are too high but I was shocked they didn't mention risk for a strong tornado very early on in the game...perhaps just a small window too b/c everything will become linear quickly but the ingredients are there that should a discrete cell take off it could go nuts. Thinking we see a 4'' hail report today

same. MLCAPE too getting to 4000-5000 J...that's ridiculous. Derecho composite already at a 10 too.

DERECHO!!!

Sunday certainly looks more humid with a deeper plume of moisture moving in. Saturday dews could drop into the mid-to-upper 50's...lower 60's along the coast and lower 70's in Kevin's backyard

If this doesn't pan out then I am banning myself. It is now almost August and it's been CRAP. It's been absolute crap and I don't want to hear any arguments stating otherwise. This summer is pure trash and it needs to be recognized as so. This is not an appropriate summer and this better never, ever happen again. It's just been pathetic. Anyways let's try again Wednesday and/or Thursday. Right now, Thursday perhaps may have the better potential. This is when stronger forcing associated with a shortwave trough traversing the U.S./Canadian border digs towards the Northeast. This feature looks to be associated with a modest belt of 30-40 knots of shear at 500mb. This isn't overly impressive, however, with over 30 knots of shear at 700mb this should be enough to generate enough bulk shear for organized convective potential. At the surface, strong moisture pooling ahead of an approaching cold front should crank dewpoints well into the 70's. While mid-level lapse rates will be fairly poor (OF COURSE) 70's dews combined with surface temperatures into the 80's should contribute to enough instability (when combined with the shear) to warrant organized line segments with the potential to embedded areas of damaging winds and perhaps a few wet microbursts. We're nearing turn 3 and soon heading towards turn 4. Ridiculous

The best day to combine heat/dews would like be Monday...should see better moisture pooling ahead of the "front" with 850 dews ~15-16C. Question is how does cloud cover/convective potential screw temp potential?