weatherwiz

they typically tend to perform rather well in these setups...I suppose those some nasty cells could try and sneak into Fairfiled County...maybe into the Berkshires too? Anyways, given the degree of llvl instability combined with the look of the hodos that's enough to peak some excitement. Maybe I'll go chasing...if I find someone to go with. I don't like doing it alone

A warm front approaches Sunday advecting rich llvl moisture/theta-e northward combined with increasing shear. Just south of the warm front near moderate instability is possible despite weak lapse rates given dewpoints surging well into the 70's. MLCAPE values could approach 2,000 J/KG...especially if there is enough sunshine. Combination of strong wind shear and moderate buoyancy will result in the development of scattered t'storms...including potential for supercell t'storms. The greatest risk will be damaging winds, however, forecast hodographs exhibit large/curved hodos so the threat for isolated tornadoes is possible. Despite the poor lapse rates this event has the chance to be a fairly decent severe event...although perhaps moreso across PA/NY, however, southwest SNE needs to watch closely.

Yeah...at first I thought the track was a lol but then looking aloft I was like oh ****. If this type of configuration remains modeled like through tomorrow then concern has to be raised

wow...that H5 look on the euro actually looks nearly perfect for such a track...so I guess that gives that solution some type of support

This is something to watch. Seems like many systems that go into this area end up becoming rather slow movers.

yeah I agree it is close...I think the orientation is just a bit off and perhaps would like to see some better digging west of us. Certainly close but when it comes to us...close usually not enough lol. I do think we will see some heavy rain and gusty winds though

The upper level look would lead to me to believe more likely OTS than a hit here...but certainly could see some moisture and gusty winds (much needed rain too!)

I would think perhaps 3-4months? I think the vaccine is 2 shots (a month apart) and then I’m sure they monitor for another couple months to determine whether it was effective and if there are any side effects? (This is all just a guess though)

I can’t wait for the phase 3 results from moderna

They are in a bubble so as long as everyone abides by the rules all should be good

Well since you seem to lack the ability to read...or perhaps it's just a lack of reading comprehension, I'll break it down for you on a first grade reading level. It's not my fault some of you don't seem to have the brain capacity to understand convection and how it works or operates and seem to think that every time a convection threat is mentioned it means a large-scale outbreak with widespread convection.

Had some excellent views of the storms while driving. Wish I could have taken pictures but was driving

Only 207 out of 31,960 tests done between Friday - Sunday in CT came back positive (0.65%).

the warm mid-levels/weak lapse rates will certainly hinder overall potential. With that said, there should be a few line segments which produced localized damaging wind gusts.

Was just talking about this with someone. There is just no ways schools can re-open in the fall. But I guess both sides of the argument are very valid...but I’m certainly not in the position to really have an opinion as I’m not a teacher, not going to school, and don’t have kids going to school.

Let’s hope for derechos too

It’s probably just a matter of time before we see a big spike again here in New England. This really sucks. Hopefully by the winter we will see a big breakthrough in treatments and a vaccine will begin to be distributed.

Nice a tornado warning in AZ EDIT IT'S ON THE GROUND!!!!!

BDL up to 84. The pigeon fated but it must have been weak sauce

BDL back up to 82. Maybe a pigeon will fart upon flying over the sensor and spike it up to 87...then just hope for magical breaks.

BDL isn't hitting 90 today

yeah me either. I mean I love intense weather (just don't want to see property damaged or lives lost) but an exact repeat of 38 would be beyond devastating on so many levels. People want to talk about COVID changing our lives...ha a 38 repeat says hold my beer

Nice catch! Monday for sure...just looking at GFS soundings would probably need to mix up to ~800-810mb. Wind direction could be favorable for that too...not far off from W.

ehhh not like this thread will see much action for a while lol. Tropical is probably my least knowledgeable part of meteorology but I think this drought is a little bit "scary". I say this for a few reasons; 1) Thinking about how low people's guards are here...hopefully (in a way) Irene/Sandy gave people an idea of just how bad things can be here should we get hit hard. but my worry is people may not just take the situation seriously...and in a way you can't really blame them. We've all seen through photos and videos of just how destructive they can be, but unless you have witnessed this in person sometimes it's difficult to fully grasp/understand just how real it can be. For example, the October snowstorm in 2011...I think many of us had an idea of how bad it would be but I don't think many knew it would be THAT bad...I think part of that is how many of us actually been through a scenario like that....heavy, wet snow with fully leaved trees? 2) Population increase/build-up along coastal communities. Coastal CT, RI, even SE MA has become very wealthy...the size of the houses are nuts! I also believe, the majority of the population lives within this corridor? This area is almost like a ticking time bomb. Hell, many areas along coastal CT alone were like demolished...and people re-built...on the same spot. 3) People not taking forecasts seriously in the event there is a significant threat (and it pans out). By the time people were to probably realize it would be too late to act. In terms of like the meteorological sense It just goes to show how difficult it is to get a system to directly hit us. It takes a very special type of pattern with everything coming together almost perfectly. This is something which can go into my point 3 above. Anytime models show some type of system into New England there goes social media blowing up and it starts spreading in the news...but if you were to really look at it...if the pattern does not support it, it is not going to happen. There do seem to be periods (years or even decades) though where we seem to get hit more than others and this can probably tie into global oscillations/patterns where despite your short-term variance, over the course of the longer-term you'll typically get a specific pattern regime (similar to say our snow climo and why some decades are better than others)

Exactly...and it's really how you learn/understand and developing forecasting skill and try to improve accuracy. Not to mention raise awareness when needed.