weatherwiz

That map looks like my nieces artwork went through the wash machine...

It came back down

Yup...and given where we are still at time wise a shift of such magnitude is more than likely and in either direction. What direction that is remains to be seen.

The freakouts are getting a bit ridiculous. This is still really 2.5+ days away. I know it seems plausible to want to see such strong agreement and consistency but the truth of the matter is we're still within the time frame where subtle differences are going to occur. Forgetting about these east vs. west swings, at the end of the day, we're not asking for significant changes here. For things to come together and be a very high-impact event for most...it's not like a ton has to happen for that to happen. There is a difference in needing drastic or substantial changes and very subtle.

I was thinking about this on the drive home. Hasn't there been a tendency this year for models wanting to hold back energy into the southwest? Completely different season and all but I remember many convective events where there was potential for you're higher end severe setups but there was always hesitancy from the SPC to go higher probs in the D3-8 range b/c of the models holding back energy in the southwest...but as we got within 2-3 days all of a sudden models sped up energy. I think this was the case too even with the December outbreak and also with several systems that have traversed the south in the fall and even winter. This is just based on memory so there may be some data to debunk this.

Very happy to see some improved look within the upper-levels. That's what really matters most at this stage. I would have hedged a bit west based on the evolution and I would at least think much more QPF thrown west. If 18z GEFS have more west than east members not really going to sweat much.

I have zero energy for that anymore. It blows.

Bruins play at 10:00 tonight...all the reason to stay up for the NAM/GFS...or try too. I miss the days of staying up for the 0z runs

Great stuff and write-up Ray (as per the usual). We share the same thinking for the most part.

If this ends up going east that's going to be absolute, total, 100000% cringe-worthy bull****. It will be catastrophic garbage. Only positive is all this time spent on this means time closer to May 1st. but this is bull****

gotcha...yeah that's certainly different than the above reference. I feel like it's impossible to really know ahead of time the merit in this. I think we have seen instances before where such a scenario did actually occur.

Yeah that low is legit. It's part of the same system that's impacting Florida now.

The biggest thing to just take from this is the continued idea to hold the energy back in the SW longer. But until we have a much better sampling/idea of this energy all ranges of possibilities remain and we'll continue to see wild swings and inconsistencies until it's just handled better.

Was just noticing that. Absolutely wild

Quite hung back and much stronger too

I went to Costco's and got cases of s.

I try to consider as many different pieces as possible and not just focus on a few specific things. I guess with this sometimes I'll put too much emphasis on "red flags" but more times than not when there are red flags involved (and many) you're more than likely to see lower end totals than higher end. In this particular setup, I'm not so sure there are necessarily red flags as there are caveats. This really ultimately comes down to southern stream evolution and northern stream involvement.

99.999999% of the time I am extremely conservative with snowfall forecasts but sometimes you gotta chuck high and far

Very confident in these ranges but obviously may have to do some shifting once we get a precisely clear consensus. I do think we'll see a max jackpot strip of 24-30'' but not sure if that includes Connecticut. I am fairly confident though we see heavy banding get much of Connecticut. Thinking snowfall rates 3-5'' under the band with ratios upwards of 18:1 to 20:1 (though I'll admit I'm not sure how to factor wind into lowering these).. Two big things of note: 1) QPF is going to be high 2) Lift will be through the roof 3) Way better than 10:1 ratios.

Eye candy time

Agreed. We still have a bit before those complicated process are fully resolved. The spread has lowered some but is still high enough to result in a wide swing of possibilities on a local level.

Completely agreed with the bolded. You're though talking about the evolution and track. I am just referring to the initial low pressure development. If the initial low development say is further east...with the changes in the trough that will result in an even more east swing. If the initial low development is farther east...with the changes in the trough you still get the east swing but that east swing isn't nearly as far east. you still have a more west track.

IMO it would impact how the low evolves/tracks...not necessarily initial development.

I don't know though if that's impacting where the sfc low first pops off the southeast coast. there is energy well ahead of that southern s/w in which the NAM is closer to the coast and the GFS is farther east Unless I'm totally wrong on this, low pressure development initially usually occurs very close to or right along the baroclinic zone (which is virtually just off the SE Coast...on all models). Even when looking at mid-upper levels that would favor initial development just off the coast...not as far east as GFS has

Like the GFS pops the sfc low much farther east than the NAM/Euro which (even though there are the slight differences with the shortwaves) could also explain a more east push and then a subsequent later capture.