weatherwiz

The number of fall events the past 3-4 years have been the most intriguing. Perhaps with great assistance of dual-pol radar activity but the number of October/November tornadoes the past several years from NY/PA into our region has been pretty remarkable. Thankfully (and this is a trend nationally) they're all weak sauce

Just thinking about last night... I wonder if these pea-hail reports last night was actually grauple.

Monday looks quite decent for some severe weather potential. Low-topped squall line type stuff but that is alot of wind aloft and a nice surge of theta-e air with dewpoints climbing into the 50's potentially. There will actually be three mechanisms for wind damage potential here; 1) Presence of steep low-level lapse rates during the day 2) With a line of low topped convection ahead of the front 3) Very steep low-level lapse rates in association with CAA behind the front. But in the warm sector...those are some pretty impressive mid/upper level dynamics and of course very strong low-level jet. If we get dews into the 50's and can muster up enough low-level CAPE this will be a decent little event. It's like a lower-grade 12/1/06

dang it...wonder if I had hail. I heard pings but could have been pings within the Bruins game

AAM/mountain torgues are on my goal list of studying and learning more about over the coming months. I know some of their opinion of them and how much weight they truly hold but I believe understanding their current states and how they've behaved over the previous several weeks to few months can provide tremendous value. Forecasts of these states will only provide as much value as what forecast models are projecting but...when it comes to a changing pattern and a changing state (not just about a particular region but maybe a good part of a hemisphere)...if a change is say going to occur over the U.S. the change has to occur somewhere else first...so identifying where a change is set to occur and going from there is incredibly valuable. I also want to do more studying/assessment of the global pattern as a whole b/c after all everything is connected. Maybe a slight change in the Atlantic results in changes over Europe several days later which results in changes across Asia several days after that and then across the Pacific several days after that and then across the U.S. several days after that (so like a month after the initial change in the Atlantic). cold

I think in order for us to get big changes in the long-term we need to see significant changes across the western Pacific and across Asia. As long as we continue to be in a positive East Asian Mountain torque regime we continue to see wave breaking just off the continent and when combined with enhanced convection/-OLR anomalies across the west-central Pacific this is driving a huge ridge across the central Pacific to west of Alaska with troughing across Alaska.

Nice to see fairly strong high pressure to the north as well ahead of the system. Could be a big game changer (in a positive way) for many. Anyways, trying not to get too hyped up about these D5-6+ threats this winter. The track record with these systems the past few winters have been pretty horrific. The patterns we have been in have just been pure hell from a modeling standpoint. But could be the last chance for quite a while...pretty strong signals for Pacific air to flood much of the country. However, given the degree of cold air that sticks around in Canada there will be quite a battle ground so northern New England could get slammed. I am getting a feeling this could be like a 70-71 type winter (I think that's the winter places like PWM and BTV got destroyed?)

eh I love tracking both. I do love tracking potential snowstorms and snow but it's just not the same as it used to be...mostly b/c I don't get to enjoy it like I used to and don't have the energy to stay up at night and look at models. At least for me...when there is a potential event hinging on phasing I am extremely intrigued. When phasing is a huge player, I try not to get obsessed with model run-to-model run or get caught up in details. All I care about is that models continue the theme of a potential phase and that window for phasing opportunity is there. Once inside of 48-72 hours I'll start to really hope to see a consistent theme of phasing. But in the event of Sunday/Monday there is alot to really like (in terms of storm potential): 1. Changes within the state of the PNA/NAO (good for East Coast cyclogenesis) 2. Favorable jet structure and dynamics 3. Abundance of moisture influx 4. Cold air available Now it's just piecing things together. Maybe it doesn't totally work given the time of year but I'll take these key pieces all winter long and go from there.

yeah not totally closed. just a bit weird looking. favoring the convection possibly...but way too far out to probably focus on that too much. For this time range there's lots of favorable pieces and movement which is good to see.

I'm just looking at the 18z GFS now but per that solution you almost wonder if it's not totally accurate with it's surface depiction. Here is 6z Monday. H5 is closed off over PA. But then look at the SLP. I would expect a sfc low more southwest and probably a bit more consolidated and stronger based off this look along with the jet structure. One thing to note though is it is generating a ton of convection which if accurate would impact development.

If the ridge axis in the West was maybe a couple hundred miles farther west...or maybe not even this would probably be one heck of a storm

Several waterspouts likely a few hundred miles SE of the Cape

If we can get H5 to close off around or just south of Long Island this will be a pretty solid event for a good part of the region (obviously with time of year typical caveats will apply towards the coast). Phasing of the two s/w's will be key too but even if we don't see phasing...that nrn stream is significant enough to where it may be able to compensate (i.e. tracking over or just south of Long Island).

Thundersnow possible? Wouldn't be surprised to see some hefty snow squalls across the whole region Friday

That was a pretty remarkable storm. Still remember that like it was yesterday. Was pretty uneventful in West Hartford, but I was assisting the Ham Radio team at the time and holy crap...the period from like 10 PM - 6 AM flew by. The damage coming in from around ORH was non-stop. I think what goes unnoticed with that event too is they had a pretty damaging wind event across parts of RI into SE MA. Temps I think shot up into the 50's to around 60.

Can see it already...BTV pulls off 80-90'' this winter and BDL barely sniffs 30-35''. That's a crushing NNE look. Maybe with the lakes still warm we can get some re-developing clippers in NYE 2009 (was it 2009?) fashion.

Yup...great point. There isn't just a single PV...there's a tropospheric PV and a stratospheric PV and they aren't always coupled. Just b/c maybe the SPV isn't favorable doesn't mean we can't see cold/snowy patterns and just b/c the TPV isn't favorable doesn't mean we can't either. IMO anyways, the PV will hold much more weight and be a bigger influence when there is a greater coupling between the two.

ahhh...I did not go to that one. hmm I wonder why. I remember going to Boston in 2018 or maybe it was 2017? I parked in a garage and it cost like $45

No problem! It was great to finally meet you along with @WxWatcher007, @DotRat_Wx, @DavisStraight and @Sugarloaf1989. It was fantastic to see everyone as well and I can't believe it was 11-years since the last Funky Murphy g2g...I for sure thought it was 2013 but maybe we did another place? But getting together with everyone made me very happy. Made me miss the conferences and the local g2g's. We really all are a part of each other's lives and it's great to be able to do these things every now and then.

WinterWolf is next to me

Was delicious

Leaving Springfield now…be there in about an hour

Probably be there around 3:00. Bringing my girlfriend. Usually stay with her on weekends and she isn’t working today. Can’t wait to see everyone!!

Justin, Long time no talk! I hope all is well. I know you posted this over a year ago but I was just surfing through this portion of the board. Not sure what decision you have made or whether you're still deciding but do it man! The job prospects in the field are looking very positive, especially if you go a masters route and have a goal for the NWS. The private sector also has a ton of opportunities. Not sure if you're good at programming or have experience with GIS, but if you do that will help you big time. Anyways, I was 30 when I graduated with my degree in meteorology. I was extremely, extremely fortunate to have been presented with a job (which supposed to be an internship but it didn't qualify as an internship) before I even graduated. One of my professors told us a story of someone who was in his 40's who had gone there for meteorology looking for a career change and ended up getting a job. From what I remember you're a very smart individual. I struggled beyond belief with calculus and physics but grinded my way through. I'd be interested to know what your path has become in this past year.

I will be there!