Timing going to hurt us, but still looking good for some severe weather across NY/PA Monday. But even western New England could get something late in the evening.
Thursday could certainly feature widespread heavy rain, especially south of the Pike, PWATS are pretty damn high and that's a pretty potent LLJ feeding moisture.
maybe we'll get some type of prolific hybrid in late October in which a hurricane comes up the EC and interacts with the remnants of a TC moving up from the GOM and pulls down air straight from Santa's house and we get a region wide 3-5 foot snowstorm with supercells on the leading edge
Medium-range (or more-so longer end of medium-range) forecasting right now is almost pretty pointless. There is or has been no clear-cut signal as to what to anticipate. The hemisphere (at least our end) continues to be in a state which continues to elicit the tendency for EC troughiness and closed lows.
It will certainly be more summer-like the end of the week in terms of temperatures. Very possible the highest temperatures will be north, but most everyone (outside of elevation of course) should get well into the 80's. Dewpoints won't be anything crazy
for hail (1'') it's been a while. But got some storms last summer that had some pretty strong winds, I think one I was at BDL for and they did measure severe gusts.
I think our "peak" is like early-to-mid June into early-to-mid July...but obviously our peak is very short. However, some of our bigger events have come mid-to-late May and then later in the summer.