weatherwiz

This broad meso has been going for a while. I bet there’s some wind damage occurring under it even a bit of a bow

That’s a scary thought

Now it’s damage time impressive stuff with that stuff as it went across NY

Nice

I was selling hot dogs

Thunder in Springfield!!!

I can't get over 500 m2/s2 of effective helicity juxtaposed with >1500 J/KG of MLCAPE and >100 J of 3km CAPE...it just seems unreal

Yes. The event and it's potential were very well forecast!

I think it's just a question of whether it was on the ground from it's initial warning point of near Jonesboro...may have to fully wait for survey but if it was then it will likely be official. Still can't believe this...so tragic

no signs of slowing down

Probably would be a miracle. NROT values exceeding 2

Remarkable...really hope everyone is alright

Really terrible and it's not going tp improve any over the next several hours.

That is a large TDS over Mayfied....holy crap

My God...500 m2/s2 effective helicity across western TN to go along w/greater than 100 J 0-3km CAPE and 2000 J/MLCape. That stuff is going to explode in western TN

this is only getting started too

Tornado emergency on that now

23z RAP at MEM for 3z just ahead of that line of supercells before it approaches

St. Louis may be in some trouble. I've been watching that cell down near Jonesboro. That is some inflow notch on it. Confirmed TOR with it...haven't noticed any TDS yet but this thing may becoming long tracked

It's probably a good thing that stuff is linear in MO and not discrete b/c that's an environment primed for strong tornadoes. I wish they did balloon launches in MEM. That environment across western TN is insane and convection there probably more likely to be discrete (at least for the first round).

cap already starting to erode but yikes...once it really does across AR and TN it's going to get ugly That is some QLCS getting going in MO too

The Mets were also looking nice...

And that's a great point...just b/c an entire month overall looks like crap or torchy or whatever doesn't mean we can't get snow or a good storm. All we need to do is capitalize on those times when the pattern is favorable. Obviously when the window of favorable is smaller the task becomes more difficult but it's not impossible. I've been noticing a ton of play recently on the MJO...I guess b/c it's been a bit active, but the MJO is probably one of the most difficult oscillations to forecast. Putting alot of stock though in a medium-to-long term forecast with heavy weight can be very Russian Roulette

The environment that is materializing across western TN, KY, southern IL/IN is becoming quite scary. The overlap in ingredients is insane. If there was greater confidence in aerial coverage could probably argue high risk