weatherwiz

Waiting for it to populate to read the discussion but the outline is a red box. Could be under consideration for a TOR

Curious to see if damage reports roll in from around BGM

RAP forecast in a few hours

Probably in another hour should see a new watch downstream

Hopefully I can chase later. Have to go to New Britain to my niece's birthday party. I'm pumped the Bruins play at 3:00 too...can go after the game.

Already getting CU's to pop up in the dry slot of PA. Want to watch any cells that develop initially for TOR potential (obviously talking about west of our region).

Huge enhanced for wind!!

Can't get any more legit then this Hopefully we can get something like this with an EML in a few months

Our neighbor is having the pine tree taken down April 17. Hopefully mother nature does that for them today.

It's possible, but what would really help is if we were able to sneak dews closer to 60 or like 60-61 like they'll get in NJ into SE NY. That's really the biggest discriminator in this IMO.

I mean I think we're capped on what we can achieve instability wise regardless. Maybe stronger heating yields a couple hundred more J of CAPE. But if we can get temps to climb into the mid or even upper 60's with dews into the mid 50's under 7-7.5 C/KM mlvl lapse rates, given the shear parameters and shortwave forcing, that is more then enough to keep a line into western sections. This will probably weaken with eastward extent some b/c instability will wane with loss of heating, but dynamics should keep an isolated damaging wind gust threat farther east.

mid-level lapse rates really steepen through the day. Very impressive dry slot behind these rain and clouds. This will be fun for western sections later on

The late timing is certainly a concern, especially as you move east across the state. Instability is certainly going to be limited due to marginal dewpoints, but steep mid-level lapse rates should help compensate some. I do think the greatest risk overall is going to be just to our west with rapid weakening across the state, but it’s possible dynamics may keep things going. Watch the steep low-level lapse rates as an aid in maintaining wind potential

HRRR pretty aggressive but not outlandish given shear/lapse rates and strength of shortwave

nahhh...never want to see a scenario like that were property and lives are being impacted. If it was going over a field or woods different story.

The RAP with 300-350 J of 3km CAPE across eastern IA/IL border later on...that is insane given the shear parameters.

A 90

Funnel cloud spotted with the cell headed towards LIT. Maybe they'll report funnel in the METAR

ehhh kind of a loaded question. I'm not a huge fan of comparing events, but certainly given the potential today holds, this could be a very bad day.

woohoooo

Agreed, sometimes it's too easy to get caught up with these composites and parameters. Basically, just shows that if mature enough updrafts can materialize they have a ton to work with. I almost can't get over the HRRR...it's like a QLCS line of supercells (and multiple of them). The storm motions are through the roof too which is not good. People will have very little time to react and get to safety.

The HRRR has been trending more and more aggressive which is not a good sign. I know one concern I had against a large-scale widespread outbreak was a "dirty" warm sector but the warm sector is full of breaks. The RAP (using mesoanalysis) is developing widespread 2,000 J MLCAPE and > 200-250 J of 3km CAPE. That is very scary

Two PDS watches coming as well

It is certainly possible. If the upper air pattern favors the advection of elevated mixed-layers (and for them to maintain their integrity) into our region then we'll certainly see our higher end severe events. This was the case in 1995 (as you said) as well as 1998. 2011 was also like this to an extent.