weatherwiz

Yeah hail is always a possibility anytime you're dealing with temperatures that cold around H7-H5 and when you have steep mlvl lapse rates. 6z NAM Bufkit at BWI was generating between 500-700 J/KG of CAPE in the -10C to -30C layer so hail is certainly possible. There are some limiting factors though such as storm mode...that could limit large hail potential but pea's/dime's/nickel's are certainly possible with the more robust updrafts.

Wow...NAM is quite intriguing tomorrow across the Baltimore/Washington corridor. Very steep mid-level lapse rates atop of an unseasonably warm/moist airmass would contribute to moderate levels of instability and steep low-level lapse rates verify this potential. Despite the lack of a stronger more consolidated piece of s/w energy you have a pretty decent amplifying trough with strong height falls. would think we see an upgrade to Slight with Enhanced risk potential if the NAM signal gains support. Would think an area of concentrated and widespread damage is very possible along with the risk for a few tornadoes...though could be mitigated by weaker llvl shear.

That was an idea, however, the number of bees making it inside has escalated quite a bit today. Probably close to a couple dozen which have gotten inside today.

Here is the correct pic

That is a very good point. I don't want those suckers getting inside and all angry. I'm going to take the appropriate measures to get rid of the nest ASAP.

This is great information! Thanks a ton

Yes, vinyl siding. I'm going to assess the vinyl siding closer this evening but there are some additional "weakness" I've found but I've at least found the main hole the bees are coming in/out of. I did explore some of the areas where wires enter the house but I didn't notice any activity from those. There seems to be some sort of weakness within the screen door allowing them to come in. Or there are small enough gaps along the edge of the door...but it's crazy how so many would find such small holes.

Thanks...good to know!! Will order something.

that’s where the nest looks to be…inside that hole in the siding I put up the glass but the bees seemed to be getting in from the top right and zero clue how.

One day last week I noticed there were several yellow jackets inside on some curtains. So I did some further exploring and found many dead ones on the inside of the window and on the floor behind a piece of furniture. I was stunned because I had just cleaned in that area not long ago. I did some looking around the window area (both inside and outside) and could not figure out how the bees came inside. So I got rid of all the bees. Well the past few days I noticed more bees getting inside. I did some additional exploring and by our front door there seems to be a nest and I noticed bees were coming in from the screen door...from the top right of it and zero clue how because there are no holes. This morning I found several in the kitchen. I sprayed last night in the whole where the bees come in and out of but what else can be done? What also shocks me is...for yellow jackets these things don't appear to be very aggressive. Even inside...they just hang around on an object or walk across the floor. Even when I swat at the ones by the door so they fly outside...they aren't aggressive.

Thursday night/Friday a bit intriguing

Late Thursday night/Friday could be interesting in terms of convective potential. Maybe a forced line of convection with damaging wind gusts/spinner potential.

don't wet it too much...might freeze

Also depends on what we're defining "cool blast" as but you make a strong point. Just looking at 850-temperature anomalies, they don't really deviate much from the "average" behind the cold front. In this warming state of climate if we're going to see below-average temperatures...like solidly below, I'd like to see a rather anomalously cold llvl airmass. Also we should note...the extent of the air behind it is really dependent on how deep that low becomes near Hudson Bay. But given what the airmass looks like now...diurnal heating will likely somehow find a way to get most places a few ticks above-average. This cool blast though will likely be better defined regarding overnight temps than daytime temps.

sounds like a tree-topper or otherwise known as the Kevin-special

I went back the other day and was looking a little closer at it...you could almost argue the signature was actually more suggestive of divergence than rotation.

I know fall is coming... I saw a wolf spider on my bathroom floor this morning. I was standing drying off and I saw something crawling at the bottom of the sink...stupid wolf spider. Even without my glasses I could see it. I was scared because it was only a few feet in front of me so while I was doing my hair I was keeping a close eye on it...which was tough b/c I didn't have my glasses on. In the three seconds I looked at the mirror to get the cute styling going, I looked down...done. I pick up a piece of clothing that I wore yesterday that was on the floor and shook it...IT RAN INTO MY CLOTHES. Not sure if I killed it but there is a little portable heater thing in the bathroom...I picked it up and dropped it on the spider...hopefully the leg of the heater got the spider but I did not see it crawl anywhere after that. WOLF SPIDERS DON'T BELONG IN THE HOUSE

Definitely going to be the first "cool blast" of the season but I'm not so sure we really see "below-normal" temperatures during that period...I think we'll see temperatures closer to avg...some areas may come out a tick below an some probably a tick above

Not for you

It is very depressing looking through the 384-HR GFS and not seeing much CAPE across the country

the cold just sucks...it really, really sucks. 30's...40's it's tolerable (a bit annoying when wind is involved) but days when it its in the teens or even 20's and we get into the single digits at night (or below-zero) with wind...just nothing fun or enjoyable about that at all.

see they smart I will agree...the gnats and bugs that swarm you in the summer really suck...that's probably the only thing I hate.

Even the penguins hate winter...that's why they're dying. they offing themselves

Outside of snow winter is pointless...it's stupid. It's depressing how short our warm season is up here and it's even more depressing when you factor in the length of day changes. And how many good snow storms to we really get a winter anyways? and honestly...outside of the weather aspect and what drives us to love snow...snow makes winter even worse as it creates more hassle than it's worth. There is zero enjoyment being outside in the winter...ZERO. People can say what they want about the heat and the summer but at least outside of peak heating hours, being outside is tolerable and at least there is the beach/ocean to go to. Where do you go in the winter....ummm nowhere...maybe you're lucky and have a fireplace or a wood stove...but that is still INSIDE. Winter's you have to wear all this clothing and long sleeve crap and if you get dressed before you do your hair...you're totally screwed.

Eventually a '38 redux will occur and we may have to never worry about when leaves change color again