weatherwiz

Well kudos to those with the east call. Worked out well and saved CT from some big wind disaster

Certainly true

Nah we focused on both. Flooding going to be an absolute disaster where it occurs…but in the grand scheme of things flooding won’t impact the number of people that power outages would.

They were probably reading American and so all the meh posts so figured not worth it

Landfall right around where I was thinking…eastern LI into CT

I am possibly thinking of staying at a hotel in Branford. But I would have to drive to there from Springfield super early

Just b/c models are east doesn’t mean it’s going east

Damage

We tried to warn and tell. All we can do

No “18z NAM is 2.3333mb weaker and .3 miles farther east posts” yet

Recon should be there shortly! Can’t wait

They’ve evacuated and hunkered down

People acting like this was supposed to hit us as a category 2. Right now there is very strong consensus that this either goes into eastern LI and hooks into southern CT or into RI as a high-end tropical storm. If what the NHC has verifies (70 mph with higher gusts) into Madison, CT the degree of power outages and damage (especially coast) is going to be very significant. as for the weakening yes the waters outside the Gulf Stream aren’t supportive for intensification but they’re still into the 70’s…this thing just isn’t going to weaken and poof into nothing. Even if it came into CT with winds of 55-60 with higher gusts…power outages and damage will still be a problem

Wow....good catch.

I would be very hard pressed to think CT does not see significant issues if this verified

One thing to maybe consider too is enhanced mixing given it is daytime. Llvl lapse rates are kinda meh (steep llvl lapse rates helped with Isaias) but I would think we should have no problem really mixing to 925 tomorrow...especially under convective elements. Again too...this is all dependent on how strong Henri is when/if it makes landfall along eastern LI and slings into CT. I think if it's as strong as what NHC has it...we have big problems. If it ends up stronger then we will have very serious problems.

Should also note the NHC has this going over Madison, CT as a 70 mph tropical storm with gusts up to 85 mph...the power outages along the shoreline would be phenomenal. Plus...CT is very small...tropical storm force winds would encompass the entire state.

Some just don't seem to understand what even a duration of 50-60 mph wind gusts will do. We went through this whole debate last summer prior to Isaias. Wet grounds + fully leaved trees + 50-60 mph gusts is going to cause damage and lots of power outages. I mean look what thunderstorms do what they reach those magnitudes and that's like only a couple minutes (if even) of those winds. We don't need 80+ winds to cause significant issues here

Sometimes it can take forever to populate fully.

Looks like hurricane force wind probs increased a bit across SE CT

Don’t remember if this was posted but still a general consensus for west.

Yeah we certainly wouldn’t make the list on that track

Despite the track east the tug to the northwest is there so can’t just discount potential for a landfall as far west from central LI to SE CT

Would still probably see widespread 40-50 mph gusts in CT on the NAM solution with greatest winds obviously east. Hours of those winds will bring about damage/power outages. Maybe not 100K+ but still quite a bit. Flooding will be ugly