weatherwiz

The air is drier than Anthony's Christmas cookies

meh

This system actually has a pretty well defined inverted trough feature. Not just defined at the sfc either but pretty stout well through the llvls. Also looks like there may be multiple llvl convergence zones at play here. northern tip of Maine where nobody lives may do well.

ughhh this could be so sexy

Wasn't the NAO more easterly based too in 1970-1971? I always get it confused as to whether we want a more easterly/westerly based -NAO and when I play it out by picturing it I always feel like easterly is better b/c it would support more of a trough axis digging just west of us and deeper. But there are instances I think where we've had some decent NAO blocks but end up with ridging under them across the east. I wonder how much the AMO influences this. One big differences between the 70's and now is the AMO was heading into the direction of negative during the 60's and was solidly negative in the 70's (and peaked in the early 70's). It seems like right now everything is just way too hostel. Both Pacific/Arctic and they're kind of fighting each other. One pattern type is trying to win out and be dominant but there's just too much going on.

Is the majority of the initial cyclogenesis tied into the beginning of phasing or perhaps more of a byproduct of the gulf Stream? Maybe that northern stream vort is just a bit too strong as well here but this stupid zonal flow we have right now is probably the ultimate demise. nice airmass overhead now but that quickly gets shunted east.

Exactly...getting a perfect pattern is one piece, getting pieces to time right is another

I do agree the Pacific does hold more weight overall, however, that's not always 100% definitive. There are times where (b/c of our latitude...more us than you) that the Arctic can be a significant influence. At the end of the day there are alot more factors and influences to consider than just Arctic/Pacific but those are the go to b/c they're "easy to assess". But in this case and to your previous post...a better positioned PNA would have could have helped but I think the evolution of that southern stream s/w is what gets us.

It's so freaking pathetic how we can't get anything to work right for us. Actually have a decent shot for some phasing for once (and closer t o "perfect" than we've had) and what happens...we have a shitty airmass. So much for a "negative NAO". This just further proves that there is alot more to things than whatever phase a certain teleconnection is in. The structure and where core anomalies are situated are a million times more important than whatever something is just positive or negative.

We probably get more ASOS stations verifying severe than they do blizzard criteria

Nice 2-4'' across eastern sections Wednesday..... of rain

I usually wait until winter's been sucking and it's about time to cancel it. And then after starting it, about 2-3 weeks later we get nailed

May 1st will be here before we know it

I guess it depends on what expectations one has on backside snows. If someone is probably hoping for several-inches that may not work out but getting some snow showers or some light snow (enough to drop a coating to an inch or two) isn't that unrealistic. Gotcha...makes much more sense.

One thing that seems odd too is it almost looks like there are some embedded areas of subsidence involved from like maybe MA/VT/NH border on south...or certainly MA Pike on south. I guess this kinda makes sense though when you dig into some forecast soundings and look at VV's (it's even a bit apparent at 850mb). It's also a bit weird b/c it actually appears the BEST lift occurs just ahead of the main precipitation shield. But during the precip lift everywhere is pretty pathetic. Either subsidence or some dry air intrusions sneaking into the lower-levels where the flow has a more NNE component. Lots of weird little things going on

I wouldn't be too terribly surprised to see some back end snow. Latest NAM pushes those llvl circulations right through the region and may get cold enough on the backside. Maybe gives someone an inch or so. But yeah not sure how sold I am on this though. That's what I was debating too...if that WAA running into that air could compensate some. We have seen that happen before and great point about the salt nuclei. I'm wagering predominately snow ratios around 8:1 with 10:1 probably on the northern extent of the goods but that should be a very narrow area.

Exactly what I was seeing yesterday and touched upon in my forecast. DGZ is not only super high but it's also pretty warm through much of the cloud layer (warm relative to ice nucleation). Pretty borderline

idk...alot of these 0z NAM soundings are kind garbage. Thinking back to the many previous events which featured big front end thumps...the signals for that was much stronger than what is being shown here. Like the best lift is actually displaced kinda far south. This whole look overall is just kinda odd

For such strong WAA I thought some soundings would exhibit much stronger llvl omega or vertical velocities but not seeing any of that. Also trying to picture what kinda of flakes we will be dealing with and I would imagine they're pretty tiny. These can definitely accumulate if rates are intense but...even despite the strong WAA the signals for a true thump actually seem to be lacking. I'm going to say max snow totals probably 3...maybe 4'' and that's probably into southern VT/NH

Yup...that's the huge blow here...the antecedent airmass. Given how crappy the airmass is ahead of it I'd be very weary of this still trending warmer (especially at the surface). This reminds me of a setup we had (I want to say winter of 2017-2018)...we were very warm ahead of it and there were concerns for icing (at least down here) but we hovered 32-33 and icing didn't transpire. It's probably going to be a very narrow area for the heavier snow and higher totals...that WAA aloft too is cranking. But at least the airmass isn't necessarily dry ahead of this.

wondering that too. I was looking for dynamic cooling, maybe evaporative cooling...but seeing neither. The winds are quite weak but I guess there appears to be some very weak northerly or northeasterly component to the sfc wind. And the llvls remain quite cold so maybe we just don't mix? Looks like how 925/850 evolves is drastically different too. closing off briefly then opening up and just sliding southeast and we limit WAA there

both NAM and 3k NAM actually cool the sfc during the early afternoon but pretty solid warm tongue aloft. Looks like a sleet fest south of the Pike

And further reasoning as to why the model snow maps are pure garbage. To generate a snowfall forecast by using a constant ratio is trash...and...and...and the only parameters I believe they take into account are QPF and the snowfall ratio (this is why there was the new love for Kuchera b/c it can manipulate snow ratios) but how you can come up with a snowfall forecast without taking into account variable which even supersede QPF/snow ratio is beyond me. This is very true...especially when talking about commute impacts. This is where rates are extremely important as well.

18z GFS for Keene, NH but snow ratios fall more quickly than Urban Meyer

I would be shocked even if more than 2-4'' fell farther north. I'm just not sure how great snow growth is going to be and I certainly don't see very good snow ratios. Maybe during the thump they are good...10:1...12:1 (12:1 may be a big stretch) but that is going to be super brief. I'm thinking ratios probably more in line of 8:1 or so despite it being sufficiently cold in the lowest 5,000 feet. But where snow production will occur nothing looks impressive (to me anyways)