weatherwiz

All in all this has turned out to be pretty solid and it's cool to see all the pieces involved. Shortwave energy rotating through with some weak WAA aloft. There's a pretty deep DGZ with sufficient moisture Nice ULJ providing some ulvl divergence

This is super fun...watching the Bruins, watching it snow outside and going outside every now and then....and looking at the severe weather potential in the Tennessee Valley Friday night...how can this get any better?

All I was hoping for!

Makes total sense too based on the snow growth and flakes

Yeah I don’t think that’s an inverted trough bringing us this stuff here. You can see on meso analysis some weak WAA aloft (especially at 700).

Just pulled home in Windsor Locks and it’s coming due pretty solid now. Even sticking to pavement

starting to stick to the grass and some colder surfaces!!!

pretty solid snow growth now. hope for some stickage soon

flake size increasing!!

snowing in Branford!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2-4 feet of Hazy IPA cans all over Kevin's bedroom floor

May even be tough to get flurries here tomorrow. Given the latest track we now introduce some awfully dry air aloft. Maybe I'll just fill a giant sack with salt and throw it up in the air to simulate snow

Yup...that's the challenge with these things. Incredibly difficult to pinpoint where they occur and sometimes even when modeled they don't materialize as so

If I got under that...I may have to come out of 40 retirement

I would suspect ratios would be quite high under that. Probably even maximizing ratio potential too...sufficiently cold through the column, super light winds, and looks like a cross-hair sig too. Maybe ratios upwards of 20:1?

BINGO...it never does stop. I think alot of the early looks ahead to winter that early (heck probably even going into late summer) stem with those involved in energy demand/forecasting. But I have to agree...at least from the minimal work I've done with attempting long-range forecasting there is not a whole heck of correlation between fall/winter. Significant changes happen to the northern hemisphere during this period from changing wavelengths to changing correlations between teleconnectors and the overall pattern. Also, you can have significant short-term weather phenomena which can result in a significant hemispheric pattern change. For example, perhaps a significant recurving typhoon in the PAC or a monster ATL storm which completely re-shapes the NAO or a significant stratospheric event.

how do you have an alligator as a pet? where did they keep it...the bathtub? do they eat spiders?

wtf?????? how did an alligator get there? great now we have to deal with those.

unless that period happens to be right around climo...sadly, probably not

The problem is there are too many ridiculous products out there. Past 120-hours...hell maybe even 96 you only need upper-level charts and some SLP progs. No QPF or snow maps or whatever

I don't know if it's really a case of models sucking. These past few winters we have seen patterns become established which have tended to be progressive in nature which usually is associated with lots of moving parts (i.e. shortwave energy). When you have situations where there are so many pieces of energy and an infinite amount of interactions you get chaos from hell. This is why when looking just at SLP and sfc charts you get tons of different solutions not only from model-to-model but mode run-to-model run...it's a product of the infinite amount of solutions which exist.

The first few inches of the season are always special...or hell the first storm really. Also knowing what lies ahead with the pattern moving forward we need to capitalize on any chance (no matter how minor) we can get

much better than me. This is just frustrating b/c you watch the evolution of this from the upper-levels down to the surface and it's close to being a big hit. I' just so sick of this crap though these past few winters. It's almost not even worth monitoring or getting excited for any chance unless you're within 72-hours...and even then you probably get disappointed.

This is absolutely ridiculous. So freaking sick and tired of this. Everything just turns to crap. crap...crap...crap. Winter isn't even fun anymore....it's just full of stupid dry cold and then when we get something we torch. This is why social media sucks...everyone going bonkers posting D5-7+ garbage and then sounding alarms b/c there is "good agreement" at D5 and then it all goes to SHIT. Was a nice 2-3'' of snow that much to ask for?????