weatherwiz

That is a large TDS over Mayfied....holy crap

My God...500 m2/s2 effective helicity across western TN to go along w/greater than 100 J 0-3km CAPE and 2000 J/MLCape. That stuff is going to explode in western TN

this is only getting started too

Tornado emergency on that now

23z RAP at MEM for 3z just ahead of that line of supercells before it approaches

St. Louis may be in some trouble. I've been watching that cell down near Jonesboro. That is some inflow notch on it. Confirmed TOR with it...haven't noticed any TDS yet but this thing may becoming long tracked

It's probably a good thing that stuff is linear in MO and not discrete b/c that's an environment primed for strong tornadoes. I wish they did balloon launches in MEM. That environment across western TN is insane and convection there probably more likely to be discrete (at least for the first round).

cap already starting to erode but yikes...once it really does across AR and TN it's going to get ugly That is some QLCS getting going in MO too

The Mets were also looking nice...

And that's a great point...just b/c an entire month overall looks like crap or torchy or whatever doesn't mean we can't get snow or a good storm. All we need to do is capitalize on those times when the pattern is favorable. Obviously when the window of favorable is smaller the task becomes more difficult but it's not impossible. I've been noticing a ton of play recently on the MJO...I guess b/c it's been a bit active, but the MJO is probably one of the most difficult oscillations to forecast. Putting alot of stock though in a medium-to-long term forecast with heavy weight can be very Russian Roulette

The environment that is materializing across western TN, KY, southern IL/IN is becoming quite scary. The overlap in ingredients is insane. If there was greater confidence in aerial coverage could probably argue high risk

It will be interesting to see if we can not only get but maintain ridging in the Alaska region. The persistent troughing there has been quite impressive along with the degree of cold. It's been a bit uneasy b/c there have been so many times during the earlier fall and even know that this overall scheme would breakdown but it hasn't. IMO (and I could be totally wrong on this premise since this out well out of my wheel house) but I think in order for us to see any significant and major changes to the overall configuration the changes have to happen across the western Pacific/Asian continent...not necessarily the Arctic. There needs to be a complete overhaul there first and then the rubber band snaps.

Obviously H5 is a fantastic level to start at when assessing the pattern and potential evolution but there are times where H5 can be extremely misleading. While there is a strong correlation to evolution of H5 and the sfc the correlation is not 100%. Moving through at least the end of the month just using H5 alone may be one of those times where the correlation is quite small (to the sfc). Point-in-case next week. Examination of the sfc continues to show strong cold high's sliding southeast through Canada (even into our area). While high pressure's obviously aren't good for storms they can supply cold air...so what do we want for storms? The jet continues to be active with shortwaves which keep coming into the country from the PAC...so if we can keep supplying systems and get some llvl atmospheric support we'll have winter chances...whether it be snow, mixed, or ice. Point is H5 does not always tell all

Tomorrow is going to be quite mild. Even have to watch out for some isolated strong-to-severe thunderstorms. Agreed...warmest temps next week likely when that warm front lifts through but as long as we have that sfc high parked to the north any big warming is going to be muted.

Still waiting for those periods last winter where the "models looked good" to deliver

Just started looking at next week and initial thought was woah....we are going to be much above normal, however, upon looking at the lower levels and the sfc...it may not get as warm as one things...maybe briefly later in the week but much of the week looks like a sneaky CAD-type scenario. Maybe more in the way of seasonal temps as opposed to much above?

All in all this has turned out to be pretty solid and it's cool to see all the pieces involved. Shortwave energy rotating through with some weak WAA aloft. There's a pretty deep DGZ with sufficient moisture Nice ULJ providing some ulvl divergence

This is super fun...watching the Bruins, watching it snow outside and going outside every now and then....and looking at the severe weather potential in the Tennessee Valley Friday night...how can this get any better?

All I was hoping for!

Makes total sense too based on the snow growth and flakes

Yeah I don’t think that’s an inverted trough bringing us this stuff here. You can see on meso analysis some weak WAA aloft (especially at 700).

Just pulled home in Windsor Locks and it’s coming due pretty solid now. Even sticking to pavement

starting to stick to the grass and some colder surfaces!!!

pretty solid snow growth now. hope for some stickage soon