weatherwiz

That's b/c they get excited for setups which favor NY/PA into western New England lol.

Also can't rule out potential for a strong/severe storm across SE New England...especially along any sea-breeze.

Scheduling a launch for a late spring afternoon during prime t'storm time and into prime t'storm season...

I absolutely love the thunderstorms in the distance...the view of towering TCU's in the sky make me tingle all over. Only thing better is when they're over you.

There could be a window of opportunity for a severe weather event the first weekend of June. Trough digging into the west with our region on the northern periphery of the southeast ridge. That could offer some room for EML advection (though don't necessarily like the look...think it would become muted) but we would have a decent westerly flow aloft.

I was shocked Chicago was listed as a potential hub city given how the situation is in IL.

I actually will try that. I install window fan later on.

I don't think I've ever heard of window fans drawing in pollen...I mean unless you're sucking the air straight from the trees or you have a tree right outside your window

I can picture it now...September 2. Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals...some west team at Boston Bruins...hurricane salted to hit New England

Computer forecast models have been in strong agreement in a vigorous shortwave trough amplifying through New England yielding quite an anomalous pool of cold air aloft characterized by 500mb temperatures as low as -25C. While llvl moisture will be sufficiently lacking (dew points mainly in the 30's to 40's), the combination of very steep lapse rates (~7.5 C/KM) and daytime heating will contribute weak destabilization with MLCAPE values around 250-500 J/KG. This should be enough to spark off scattered showers and t'storms each afternoon with the attendant risks of gusty winds and hail. On Tuesday when the brunt of the air mass moves overhead, there could even be some flakes in the mountainous areas of northern New England! Lack of moisture will likely inhibit potential for severe hail.

I certainly agree the level of awareness has vastly increased; both with reporting and just an overall understanding of convective events and certain setups which can be "sneaky". I mean let's face it, probably a good amount of our tornadoes don't happen from those textbook setups...often time some brief/weak spinner of a high shear/low CAPE type day. I certainly understand the need to want to sniff those out, however, I think they are becoming overplayed...whereas anytime those type of setups arise the mention of tornadoes occur. I don't think there is anything wrong with that, but that doesn't mean it has to be conveyed to the public. Another big driver is the use now of UD helicity charts and the STP chart...which I think are becoming akin to model snow maps. Folks see an area of high UD helicity or high STP and automatically believe it correlates to tornado potential...I don't believe that.

This was...an interesting take haha.

yeah I'm not sure why the general t'storm risk covers the entire region. And there goes the SPC with mentioning tornado in the discussion. I swear...it seems every single convective setup we have now the word tornado gets mentioned. I do agree with the marginal to our west...certainly could see some damaging winds (likely in the form of downbursts as cores collapse).

I propose to ban this guy

Could certainly see quite a few lower 90's.

I wonder if this is the summer we get a derecho...like a true derecho...flattening forests and trees across the entire region and sending roofs into the Atlantic

I've had this same exact thought as well Friday when I was looking ahead to the end of the week. I was really shocked how it looked like the front would not only get hung up but perhaps even wash out. Seemed odd to have that so early in the season. But looked like there was some strong ridging just off to our east...and a bit anomalous so thought perhaps the idea was legit. Perhaps we can get a pre-frontal trough this go around...that would help nicely

My worry would be lack of moisture...would like to at least see dewpoints in the mid-50's. But for Friday...looks better perhaps for upstate NY into northern New England. Probably see an unorganized line consisting of pulse-type t'storms that are slow moving...maybe flash flooding potential? This really might be a garbage severe season

You would think we could at least muster a solid cold pool convective event from that setup...but nope. ughhhhhh

That is a sick ridge building into the SW...looks like LAS could push 110 come Wednesday. Looks like though we're just going into full summer-pattern across the country. Cut-off low across the southern Plains likely leading to some flooding issues but the jet goes into Canada. Despite the warm/humid weather here this week convective chances are meh and severe chances even more meh. Outside of that cut-off stuff in the southern Plains pretty meh across the country in terms of severe...just typical daytime heating driven convection. Guess it's a good thing I'm not going to OK. Think for next year we'll go in April.

I don’t get the watch into CT

Well here's the 18z ALB sounding...looks like perhaps would be some potential for splitting supercells that way

Heights also been kinda neutral here...don't fall until later. The idea of these pre-squall line supercells is not looking good

Tough to tell but looks like a sea breeze racing north through CT

Quite a bit of MLCIN in those areas and even through E CT