weatherwiz

Obviously H5 is a fantastic level to start at when assessing the pattern and potential evolution but there are times where H5 can be extremely misleading. While there is a strong correlation to evolution of H5 and the sfc the correlation is not 100%. Moving through at least the end of the month just using H5 alone may be one of those times where the correlation is quite small (to the sfc). Point-in-case next week. Examination of the sfc continues to show strong cold high's sliding southeast through Canada (even into our area). While high pressure's obviously aren't good for storms they can supply cold air...so what do we want for storms? The jet continues to be active with shortwaves which keep coming into the country from the PAC...so if we can keep supplying systems and get some llvl atmospheric support we'll have winter chances...whether it be snow, mixed, or ice. Point is H5 does not always tell all

Tomorrow is going to be quite mild. Even have to watch out for some isolated strong-to-severe thunderstorms. Agreed...warmest temps next week likely when that warm front lifts through but as long as we have that sfc high parked to the north any big warming is going to be muted.

Still waiting for those periods last winter where the "models looked good" to deliver

Just started looking at next week and initial thought was woah....we are going to be much above normal, however, upon looking at the lower levels and the sfc...it may not get as warm as one things...maybe briefly later in the week but much of the week looks like a sneaky CAD-type scenario. Maybe more in the way of seasonal temps as opposed to much above?

All in all this has turned out to be pretty solid and it's cool to see all the pieces involved. Shortwave energy rotating through with some weak WAA aloft. There's a pretty deep DGZ with sufficient moisture Nice ULJ providing some ulvl divergence

This is super fun...watching the Bruins, watching it snow outside and going outside every now and then....and looking at the severe weather potential in the Tennessee Valley Friday night...how can this get any better?

All I was hoping for!

Makes total sense too based on the snow growth and flakes

Yeah I don’t think that’s an inverted trough bringing us this stuff here. You can see on meso analysis some weak WAA aloft (especially at 700).

Just pulled home in Windsor Locks and it’s coming due pretty solid now. Even sticking to pavement

starting to stick to the grass and some colder surfaces!!!

pretty solid snow growth now. hope for some stickage soon

flake size increasing!!

snowing in Branford!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2-4 feet of Hazy IPA cans all over Kevin's bedroom floor

May even be tough to get flurries here tomorrow. Given the latest track we now introduce some awfully dry air aloft. Maybe I'll just fill a giant sack with salt and throw it up in the air to simulate snow

Yup...that's the challenge with these things. Incredibly difficult to pinpoint where they occur and sometimes even when modeled they don't materialize as so

If I got under that...I may have to come out of 40 retirement

I would suspect ratios would be quite high under that. Probably even maximizing ratio potential too...sufficiently cold through the column, super light winds, and looks like a cross-hair sig too. Maybe ratios upwards of 20:1?

BINGO...it never does stop. I think alot of the early looks ahead to winter that early (heck probably even going into late summer) stem with those involved in energy demand/forecasting. But I have to agree...at least from the minimal work I've done with attempting long-range forecasting there is not a whole heck of correlation between fall/winter. Significant changes happen to the northern hemisphere during this period from changing wavelengths to changing correlations between teleconnectors and the overall pattern. Also, you can have significant short-term weather phenomena which can result in a significant hemispheric pattern change. For example, perhaps a significant recurving typhoon in the PAC or a monster ATL storm which completely re-shapes the NAO or a significant stratospheric event.

how do you have an alligator as a pet? where did they keep it...the bathtub? do they eat spiders?

wtf?????? how did an alligator get there? great now we have to deal with those.

unless that period happens to be right around climo...sadly, probably not

The problem is there are too many ridiculous products out there. Past 120-hours...hell maybe even 96 you only need upper-level charts and some SLP progs. No QPF or snow maps or whatever