weatherwiz

There could be some pretty decent elevated convection tomorrow night for sure

We are one month away from the GFS getting into the start of severe season!

Will there ever be a day or time when computer models initialize much more quickly? I would think it would be possible, just a matter of computing power? I love the time change back to DT but it sucks the models initialize later.

Very nice here in Springfield!

That's why I'm not all that enthused down this way for much in the way of accumulations outside of the NW Hills. I think probably much of, if not, all of CT ends up seeing some frozen precipitation but the duration will be too brief. A big question of sleet vs. snow too which would have at least some impact on travel/road conditions.

That sucks they don't do balloon launches from CHH anymore. OKX though could shatter the daily record and all-time record for 500mb winds measured but the issue is the jet streak moves overhead between balloon launches

You would think large-scale lift should be enough for copious amounts of QPF. I don't think I've seen this posted anywhere but this 500 jet may be the strongest I've ever seen (or certainly up there).

Outside of the Litchfield Hills I think it's going to be very tough to see much in the way of accumulating snow across Connecticut. Litchfield Hills, especially far northwest Connecticut may get pounded on though. But outside of the hills, while the llvl airmass is quite cold 700mb temperatures are very marginal and the DGZ is quite high (though they do quickly crash) but it seems the window for establishing a favorable thermal profile for snow is very thin. Majority of any frozen precip may be more sleet than snow. But with this said...we could see 1-2'' of sleet which would not be good. This is very tough forecast here.

And there is going to be a crap load of it too

Me: “this storm can’t keep tracking east” Storm:

I am barricading myself inside. I don't know why they have to come during the middle of severe weather season. How am I supposed to chase with spiders falling out of the sky?

yes...that was it. Junior year. That was so much fun

Had that happen one year in high school. It was right around the time of the near-Thanksgiving storm. 2004? Schools were getting out half day and by the time we got out we already had like 4'' of snow and roads were terrible.

Berkshires would be a good bet. That's probably where snow ratios ~10:1 are most likely. Even down this way in any heavier banding...10:1 ratios may be a bit tough to come by. I'm hedging 8:1...maybe 9:1 in any heavier banding and then less outside of it. However, if the 18z NAM is onto something that will be very wrong. 10:1 ratios would be pretty common I would think with maybe 12:1 to 13:1 in the Berks

18z NAM comes in with some pretty good fronto. Just hopefully we'll be able to generate much of this lift into the DGZ to really maximize the snow growth and the snowfall rates. Poking through some Connecticut soundings it might be a little tough to fully maximize this but there's still some pretty good lift getting into the DGZ at times.

Seems odd the GFS isn't a bit more robust. That's a pretty nice jet streak up to our north which should promote favorable large-scale lift. Should be further enhanced too with the llvl N-S temp gradient. Looks like GFS may be a tad stingier with some drier air aloft?

Newtown/Danbury/Ridgefield area is one great example of this. Learned that real quick at school

Bufkit not bad looking down around HVN (NAM and GFS). Would certainly see rates close in on 1'' per hour under the band

10:1 snow maps being tossed around like candy on Twitter leading to circle jerks.

This line of rain will come in like a lamb and go out like a lion

Only the low-end events no...this summer will be much better than tonight. Tonight won't be much of anything really. The core of the LLJ is off to the east and while mixing looks pretty good llvl lapse rates are not very ideal. Best gusts tonight will occur with the CAA

meh. A line of heavy downpours with gusts 40-50 mph. And it's a quick gust too.

We are actually like 5.75 weeks away from the GFS getting into the beginning of severe weather season here!!! You know how the Groundhog is used to like forecast 6-weeks of winter or whatever? We should get an animal to do that for severe...like a chipmunk or something,.

why do so many on Twitter seemed surprised about this snow potential Wednesday? Signal was there since last Thursday/Friday.

meh