weatherwiz

yeah pretty gusty here in Branford...was not expecting this now either.

yes actually.

agreed on all accounts.

If it was winter this would be tracking up the Hudson

hmmm http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/21102606/36.phase1.zoom.png

Beautiful...wish this could stick around another few months

Warm here in Branford and even a bit on the sticky side.

there is going to be a narrow axis (like a deform band) that sets up somewhere...probably from Cape Cod through RI into E CT. That llv is going to throw back some ample moisture into this system. Wouldn't be surprised to see an axis of like 5-7''.

Gotcha. lots to iron out though in the next 24-hours with some of the details. Certainly going to be strong winds...just a question of how much of the region gets into them.

Maybe some waterspouts off Cape Cod?

with the euro wind fix or the wind threat in general? Uncertain about the state as a whole but coast/eastern sections looks a bit more concerning.

Agreed...shoreline has the greatest likelihood for widespread power outages. Inland...a bit of a tougher call. 40-50 mph wind gusts are certainly on the common side around here in the fall/winter...but given the state of the trees plus all the rain coming it makes for a bit more in the way of uneasiness.

We'll most certainly have a stout inversion in place which will help limit winds but we should also see some CAA moving through the evening which should erode the inversion a bit but given how we're looking at mostly synoptically driven winds this may not matter much (outside of mixing down stronger winds)...but winds off the deck are pretty wild. I would think 40-50 mph gusts inland are a good be with gusts 55-70 along the coast.

they did? About time. There are still some uncertainties with several pieces, however, even with the uncertainties the confidence I think for a pretty impressive wind event and power outages may be on the high side...I guess just a matter of how much of the region but that's tied into the uncertainties with track/placement

Holy crap...HRRR gone wild for sure. Does have some support from the 3km NAM too. That's a pretty extensive area of synoptic wind. Certainly can't be discounted when you consider the potential for a sub 990 low with a ~1028 HP to the north

puking?

YES!!!!

Thanks!!!

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Does anyone know how to stop google chrome tabs from automatically refreshing...stupidest thing ever

Steep mlvl lapse rates FTW! Decent amount of SBCAPE too out in eastern sections.

There is certainly enough directional shear going on to support supercell potential...in fact, perhaps even some right moving supercells. If there are indeed supercells and they become mature enough there probably is golf ball hail potential

I would focus more on MLCAPE over SBCAPE, however, given the presence of mlvl lapse rates approaching 7-7.5 C/KM atop of Td's in the mid-to-upper 60's and sfc temps ranging between upper 70's and lower 80's MLCAPE values 1500-2000 J/KG is not unreasonable. In fact, if mlvl lapse rates are more 7.5-8 C/KM those values would be quite likely.

Yeah hail is always a possibility anytime you're dealing with temperatures that cold around H7-H5 and when you have steep mlvl lapse rates. 6z NAM Bufkit at BWI was generating between 500-700 J/KG of CAPE in the -10C to -30C layer so hail is certainly possible. There are some limiting factors though such as storm mode...that could limit large hail potential but pea's/dime's/nickel's are certainly possible with the more robust updrafts.

Wow...NAM is quite intriguing tomorrow across the Baltimore/Washington corridor. Very steep mid-level lapse rates atop of an unseasonably warm/moist airmass would contribute to moderate levels of instability and steep low-level lapse rates verify this potential. Despite the lack of a stronger more consolidated piece of s/w energy you have a pretty decent amplifying trough with strong height falls. would think we see an upgrade to Slight with Enhanced risk potential if the NAM signal gains support. Would think an area of concentrated and widespread damage is very possible along with the risk for a few tornadoes...though could be mitigated by weaker llvl shear.