weatherwiz

There's also still EML hope!!!

my legs get cold

Agreed...went on my Pokewalk a few hours ago and it was chilly...finally warmed up from walking but I miss walking when it was 90 and humid

make that 9 then

So far by my count 8-confirmed tornadoes Massachusetts - 1: EF0 NJ - 3: EF0, EF1, EF3 PA - 4: EF1, EF2, 2 NR yet MD - 2: EF0, EF2 EF0's: 3 EF1's: 2 EF2's: 2 EF3's: 1 Not Rated yet: 2

Decisions are also tied into the type of weather alert. This is what I was getting at too yesterday when this event needed something stronger than just a Flash Flood Watch. Yes, all meteorologists who are responsible for communicating to the public did an incredible job highlighting the risks, but when you have decision makers and there is movement to institute certain restrictions they'll go "well it's just a flash flood watch". I mean we see flash flood watches on days when convection is forecast and there is hardly any shear so thunderstorms just dump on a location.

Tracking Larry is going to be a bit uneasy. Should that initial trough not capture it and pull it out to sea...it would have a path towards the EC

EWR recorded 8.41'' of rain yesterday. That's freaking insane. Their September average is 3.82''

Precisely. I mentioned that on Twitter a few months back and got some kickback. Some farmers apparently think b/c they have had dry soil for a few years we're in extreme drought. Wasn't necessarily referencing anyone here (but yes he would fit in this boat) moreso social media...aka twitter

It's insane to think that even 3-months ago everyone was crying drought...now look at us.

Just jaw dropping what transpired yesterday. Pretty transpired and played out exactly how it looked to do so. From the several tornadoes - including at least one strong/violent one to the widespread flash flooding. The videos are out of this world

Very nasty headed towards Norwalk. this whole night is just jaw dropping

These ulvl dynamics are no joke. There is a ton of ulvl divergence. Once the remnants of Ida interact with this even more...oh joy

There's the mention for some strong tornadoes...actually use "intense". That's my concern for coastal areas here later * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible

Pretty good agreement that we'll see as much as 1000-1500 J/ML CAPE with 150+ J 3km CAPE push into coastal CT, RI, and SE MA. You throw those numbers into the shear we have and it gets quite concerning, especially since we're talking after dark. Often times you look at convection being low topped in these setups...but I don't think that is going to be the case here and that alone should increase TOR potential

toss the models at this point. mesoanalysis is where it's at

Yeah there could certainly be some damaging wind gusts with any convection although it kinda seems like that will be limited here in Connecticut outside of closer to the coast. I'm a bit more concerned with tornado potential across extreme southern Connecticut...especially if the warm front were to tick north by another 15-20 miles. Hi-Res guidance actually pretty aggressive with generating a line of low-topped supercells (which actually may not really be low topped).

Completely agree with this And it's the over warning for flooding which probably degrades the actual need for such a watch on a day like today.

IDK...there should be something that provides stronger value into potential like today. Not that flash flood watches are super common here but they aren't super rare either. I guess the question that comes down to is, how does the general public typically respond to something like a flash flood watch? Maybe those who live in flood prone areas may take it with some seriousness but my wager is most people probably do nothing or don't even pay attention. In a potential like this...there should be something highlighting the greater potential.

BINGO

That raises an excellent point. This should have a different type of warning outside of Flood/Flash Flood Watches and warnings. I would certainly argue something along the lines of a tropical advisory would make sense from a communication standpoint.

I'm afraid the high ends may actually pan out...there is going to be a ton of convection too and precip rates will only be enhanced under convection. Going to be very ugly

oof

Getting a bit concerned about TOR potential tonight across southern Connecticut. Models getting a bit more aggressive with (at least coastal CT) warm sector getting into the state. Models spitting out some pretty damn impressive CAPE to go along with tremendous shear. A strong tornado couldn't be ruled out if this pans out.

consider it another bye week for their opponents