weatherwiz

One thing to maybe consider too is enhanced mixing given it is daytime. Llvl lapse rates are kinda meh (steep llvl lapse rates helped with Isaias) but I would think we should have no problem really mixing to 925 tomorrow...especially under convective elements. Again too...this is all dependent on how strong Henri is when/if it makes landfall along eastern LI and slings into CT. I think if it's as strong as what NHC has it...we have big problems. If it ends up stronger then we will have very serious problems.

Should also note the NHC has this going over Madison, CT as a 70 mph tropical storm with gusts up to 85 mph...the power outages along the shoreline would be phenomenal. Plus...CT is very small...tropical storm force winds would encompass the entire state.

Some just don't seem to understand what even a duration of 50-60 mph wind gusts will do. We went through this whole debate last summer prior to Isaias. Wet grounds + fully leaved trees + 50-60 mph gusts is going to cause damage and lots of power outages. I mean look what thunderstorms do what they reach those magnitudes and that's like only a couple minutes (if even) of those winds. We don't need 80+ winds to cause significant issues here

Sometimes it can take forever to populate fully.

Looks like hurricane force wind probs increased a bit across SE CT

Don’t remember if this was posted but still a general consensus for west.

Yeah we certainly wouldn’t make the list on that track

Despite the track east the tug to the northwest is there so can’t just discount potential for a landfall as far west from central LI to SE CT

Would still probably see widespread 40-50 mph gusts in CT on the NAM solution with greatest winds obviously east. Hours of those winds will bring about damage/power outages. Maybe not 100K+ but still quite a bit. Flooding will be ugly

Your posts have been some of the best in here and I look forward to the most. Keep them up!

Well that NHC track is about worst case scenario for CT from this event

That’s what I thought. Wasn’t sure…laying in bed, on my phone, and don’t have glasses on

Is it me or did the NHC nudge west with track with 11 PM update? Also increased surge in LIS to 3-5 feet along CT shore

Another strengthening cane just before landfall

that last tug NW after landfall leads me to believe the farther east track may be more of a blip but we'll see. But perhaps after seeing the 0z global + hurricane models stay pat with mean track maybe it's not too shocking to see 0z NAM slide east some.

That's going to be some pretty prolific rainfall totals in that scenario. For some areas do hit hardest this summer. Flooding would be pretty devastating in some areas

it did look like from 36-42 it was going to tug NW but went opposite 42 on. Actually...it does get tugged NW but just after landfall

NAM definitely east...3km a bit west of that. 3km run is bad news for much of cT

tough to tell but looks like it's already starting to weaken too...just judging based on the decreased size of the >70kt wind field at 925

The 0z NAM looks a little stronger with ridging ahead of Henri and also is stronger with the jet max on the east side of the ulvl trough. Wonder if this will favor a tug west from the NAM

ahh yes my mistake...they have it get to 85 mph. yeah that's what has me a bit nervous...this thing never really weakened or lost its characteristics in the hostile environment. So who knows what happens moving into the AM

yeah just saw that...not too bad. If this thing does get its act together its primed to strengthen pretty quickly. Looks like the NHC never has it getting above 75 mph but idk...get this thing to be more stacked and not tilted and this could blow up like 20-25 knots

HRRR would actually be good for some TOR's

Robert Kraft tug and pull

Henri now playing peek-a-boo on the Northeast panel view on the 0z HRRR...getting in view soon