weatherwiz

May see some nasty localized flash flooding tomorrow night ughhh

I think I was 17 when I first ever joined (which well was very rocky for me). I’ll be 33 in a month…so nearly half of my life has been on the boards!! I owe my life to it

Chillen and heavy, heavy drinking…not me though. Just had two drinks with the last one now. Taking an 11:00 train to bethel which should be there 12:30 then driving to Springfield.

A little chilly now but what a night

On the train to NYC. Such a great day

That 89 year was crazy...want to say maybe 7 tornadoes on 7/10/89 and then another 6 or 7 in the November event

cold beer

Certainly did come west a bit...I can tell b/c the western fringe of it makes an appearance in the window on the US View on the Cod maps

A pretty stout high pressure builds in for Thursday behind the cold front and that looks to hold right through Saturday! But the next front may move through next Sunday so there's still some room for timing to change a bit. But if that high pressure does hold...I don't think you could ask for more perfect weather

Wednesday really looks intriguing...actually flash flooding could be a concern

Agreed. I mean if anything, torrential rains and gusty winds could certainly cause a bit of a setback with power restorations and clean-up. Last I heard there are still many people without running water and access to clean water.

Thankfully shear looks a bit unfavorable in the Gulf this week but that tropical wave which emerges into the Gulf is sure going to try I bet

warm front nearby too so should be some nice turning. just need to destabilize

oh man...I totally, totally forgot about their website. Wow...this has come along way since they started it. This looks incredible. I love too how they break tornadoes down into "Pre-doppler" and "Doppler" era...that's exactly what I did too many years ago for a lightning round presentation at one of the conferences and what I did in a project I ended up using as senior research. I was always hoping to take that project off the ground but I never really did...I totally suck with math/statistics and I just never trusted my methodology.

I think the majority of that is Sunday into early Monday as the front moves through. The front may hold up long enough to keep the risk for showers/thunder for eastern sections through the first half of Monday though. Although maybe some cold pool showers Monday PM?

The WNW motion seems to make it extremely unlikely. If we do start to see a turn with a more northerly motion by the end of the weekend (which seems likely) then the chances are 0%. Right now the chances are probably like less than 1%. Although if Larry does undergo RI and gets into category 3 or 4 status could this favor a more westerly track?

Bermuda could be in big trouble

The probability is super, super low but certainly not 0% so does bear to be peaked at. I think having such higher latitude and the fact that it will be gaining latitude over the next several days vastly increases any odds of it impacting the coast (outside of swells of course). If it stayed on more of a due west course towards Cuba and SE US. well...could have been interesting

These past few months have been pretty crazy here in the Northeast. So much to be impressed about but I'm not sure if nothing impresses me more than the fact that NJ has had 11-tornadoes this year including an EF-2 and an EF-3. I really miss tornadohistoryproject.com because it was so easy to manipulate tornado data but I would say this has to be like top 2 year for them...maybe 1989 would be #1?

Wednesday something to watch. No outbreak or high-end event...but some localized severe weather possible.

If I want beauty I'll look at a post card or a Picasso. If people want colors...buy a giant bag of skittles.

Had to put the heat on for a bit in the car this AM...then had to switch to A/C when the sun angle started increasing. I HATE THIS TIME OF YEAR. Oh...I also saw leaves changing and some leaves down (not from wind...like leaves that had changed color and moved onto the afterlife). AHHHHHHH

some crazy bombogenesis nor'easter in November will find a way to transport enough cold air into northern FL that you see rain end as snow while we're 60's with rain

ughh that sounds awesome. Those are the best part of nighttime storms. This was just purely epic. I don't know if this was posted at all but I was looking this morning and the remnant circulation of Ida actually strengthened as it moved across our region (which shouldn't come as a shock given that ulvl jet streak) but NHC had it up to 40 mph. I totally agree with you too...something along the lines of a "Tropical Storm" watch/warning should have been used. I mean who cares if it doesn't fit the scientific definition of it...I mean in terms of the science side I get in terms of public impact this was right up there with what you would expect from a TS. Same reasons why with severe they have your regular old severe thunderstorm/tornado watches and PDS watches...something higher scale to really communicate the more extreme risk. Maybe there needs to be consideration for additional types of flood watches...extreme flood watch, significant flood watch...idk something. Kinda dumb that a flash flood watch for 2-3'' in a thunderstorm tries to communicate the same as a 4-7'' rain event in the span of a few hours.