weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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Looks like a few overshooting tops??
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The RAP overlays ~500 m2s2 of effective helicity with 200 J of 3km CAPE...yup there definitely is potential for a strong tornado across NJ in a few hours
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Wow...yikes
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yeah same here. that is a good question
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Watching this rather closely. Even looks like some thinning ahead of it
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It will crank back up. Happened here too but it's going again. Wind probably took a nap
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Some of the latest trends with the HRRR make me think we could see tornado watch actually include Fairfield, Litchfield, Hartford, and New Haven Counties!!!
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Just had a roaring gust. 12:18 PM. Have to see what BDL reports for that but that had to be up around 50...maybe a few ticks higher
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yeah it's really beginning to crank here. Can certainly hear some roaring at times and it's not the planes!
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Watch this area of steeper 2-6km lapse rates. Should that expand into our area...should that happen power outages are going to sky rocket.
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Clouds thinning ahead of that dry slot. I think there is a chance we could see the tornado watch expanded into Fairfield County CT
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I haven't heard roaring like this since I watched Tiger King
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Tornado watch out to the southwest!!!
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Tornado Watch coming for parts of PA and NJ!!!!!!
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Agreed. And it won't take much either
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There's been some hints behind this initial activity there could be some breaks...or at least enough thinning to provide a boost in heating/mixing
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I think there is the chance someone along a line from SE CT to southern RI/southeast MA gusts to 80 later today. If convection is strong enough 85 is even a possibility.
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If that verifies later there are going to be significant issues to our southwest. Over 200 J of 3km CAPE with these dynamics. Waiting for the 12z observed sounding data to be available ughhh
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Prime example. BDL vs. HVN.
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I'm actually a bit surprised they didn't bring an enhanced risk into PA or NJ and a slight into SNE. I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado watch go up to our southwest a bit later on and may extend into parts of CT. I could even argue for a small area of 10% TOR probs in SE PA.
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Noon and 4:00 PM though for eastern sections through about 6:00 PM. I think winds subside rather quickly behind the front though they will still remain rather gusty (35-40 mph).
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That's a really nice surge of instability ahead of the main line. Going to see a quite a bit of wind damage from that. Still quite concerned across SE PA and NJ. Two opportunities for severe weather. 1) With that main line in which I think they see widespread damaging winds with gusts 65-75...maybe even an 80 along with potential for an embedded tornado or two. 2) A very low probability for a few discrete supercells to form. Still think the potential exists for a strong tornado there
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I think there is a low probability for a strong tornado across SE PA or NJ. There is going to be a very narrow corridor...I mean very narrow of a rather impressive overlap of ingredients
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don't fly kites
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0z HRRR REALLY emphasizing this idea
