weatherwiz

GFS about as bad for CT as the NAM is...oh boy. Easily TS force winds too for much of the state I would think.

you can lose your entire home and pretty much everything you own, not to mention life, from flooding. Food can be replaced. You can adapt to losing power...hard to adapt to your house being flooded out.

He may even be able to go out for a quick run as the eye moves overhead

3km NAM continues to go into western Long Island. hurricane force gusts into SW CT

Yeah they would get hammered very hard. Would be pretty ugly there. I would think on this solution a good part of CT could be looking at 40-50 mph gusts and 60-70 mph along the shoreline. Then we introduce the rain/flooding. Thankfully this weakens quickly but any convective bands are going to locally enhance damaging winds.

NAM not looking good for CT...particularly the shoreline

At least we would get some TOR's on the HRRR

spilling the tackle box

I would much rather lose power for a week then have flooding problems. Losing power is merely just an inconvenience. Flooding...well that can be just devastating

If we can't get EML's may as well do hurricanes

we screwed

do you think they issue a special advisory or an update and upgrade to a hurricane?

the shifts west on a run-to-run basis have been pretty striking. Perhaps we do see a "correction east" but given the size of the westward shifts...we may not be done. I would think we would want to start seeing very little shifts west or pretty much standing pat just before ticks east occur

Bingo! I do remember you pointing that out. If you have a fast moving system...well these cooler waters won't do much for weakening b/c there isn't time. In this instance it may do a quite a bit of damage but if there is some interaction with that ulvl low and there is just enough ulvl divergence perhaps it helps to offset some of the weakening by the cooler waters. The wind potential still scares me a bit b/c people may see 30-40 mph and go meh but that's going to cause some issues...obviously nothing over the top crazy

Pretty sizable shift west...crazy too for getting closer in time

Thanks for posting actual SST's! Sometimes we get too caught up in the SSTA's but we need to remember the water temperatures needed for tropical systems to strengthen. Despite the waters off the coast being warmer than average they are still several degrees below what is generally required for strengthening. Not only this but the depth of the isotherms is just as important, especially in slow movers.

they may be the ones going out to sea...

I think a landfall into Long Island is gaining much more traction

Coastal flooding would be pretty devastating. Probably would even see hurricane-force wind gusts

I know we talked about winds not being a big issue but the probs for tropical storm force, 50+ knot, and hurricane force are a bit uneasy. also 2-4’ surge along CT shore… and 3-5’ farther east. Can’t rule that out into the CT shore with a more west track either

was looking more at the 24-36 hour window

Certainly intriguing to see intensity guidance trend a bit less impressive with how much Henry strengthens. As been stated before...intensity guidance shouldn't be taken as gospel but until there is clear-cut evidence it is wrong it can't be ignored

Pretty impressive convection around center. -80C to -90C cloud tops...wow

Curious to see what NHC does at 11 with the track but I would think we see a sizable shift west with the western edge of the cone and subsequent shift west with forecast track

probably with the 11:00 AM updates