weatherwiz

Now that you mention it I do recall a pretty extensive wind map

ohhhh I would love to see a national watch/warning from that. Oh man I wonder if one exists.

I can't remember anything like that.

This is absolutely ridiculous. Just about the entire eastern third of the country under wind advisory or high wind watch.

that cell that went through Soso, MS was downright scary and another headed right for them.

Man I can't remember many times where forecast models were throwing out 100+ knots of wind at 925 and as much as 110+ knots of wind at 850. Obviously there is going to be a rather stout inversion, but synotpic winds are going to be quite impressive. The bigger concern is obviously going to be convective potential. I think we'll see the slight risk expanded well into SNE. I think we will see a line of convection blow through during the afternoon with localized gusts of 65-75 mph. I do think southwest of us...SE PA, NJ, SE NY see an upgrade to an enhanced risk with a widespread destructive damaging wind event with numerous gusts in the 65-75 mph range. What's even more intriguing is what occurs behind this line. There are some indications perhaps there may be some breaks in the clouds with a bit of heating. This may promote the development of discrete supercells across parts of PA and SE NY so I think there is the potential for a few tornadoes there tomorrow afternoon. I think ingredient wave very rapidly across southern New England, however, there is potential this threat may extend into southwest CT. If we were able to warm sector a bit better here in southern New England I would see the enhanced risk get into parts of southern New England but I think we'll kinda be a bit removed fro best ingredients. Based on what looks to transpire from the mid-Atlantic into well at least PA/SE NY/NJ I think we may be looking at a serial derecho on our hands.

I don’t see much growing going on. Trees are more bare than my body right now

I am bit confused by something. The SPC mentions capping across the Deep South. I’m not totally sure I see capping...at least capping to inhibit convection from forming too early or whatever. I do see capping which may inhibit vertical growth but too me it looks like a pretty dirty warm sector tomorrow with a rapidly weakening EML and poor llvl lapse rates. thoughts?

I think tomorrow will be a big day but I am a little concerned with the lack of a stronger EML/CAP in the warm sector and there could be a quite a bit of cloud cover. I think the overall tornado potential could be mitigated a bit.

both NAM and GFS pretty aggressive with elevated CAPE. I could see a severe threat getting perhaps into Fairfiled County CT. I even think a small tornado threat could develop across parts of PA/NJ. Could be wild across the mid-Atlantic Monday morning.

ahhh gotcha...yeah I agree

I was thinking of starting a thread for Monday but the only thing I don't like is the best forcing/dynamics kinda become a bit displaced and remain well west. But that doesn't mean we won't see isolated cells capable of some damage. Hell...GON gusted to like 61 the other day with that convection

sounds like a high risk to me

Anyone else have dreams of a high risk last night?

Ehhh I’m not being serious lol. I don’t talk that way haha. I haven’t looked very closely at us but yeah inversion will limit wind potential unless we warm sector a bit better

I think we see some damage on Monday

yeah the damage report map will be quite lit up. Going to be a long 24-42 hour from tomorrow afternoon into early Monday morning.

wow that's way too close for comfort. Glad he was alright.

Are we in November or April

Woah his first week was when the TOR moved through? yikes

Lost in the severe wx outbreak Sunday is the blizzard that's going to happen in parts of IA, MN, and WI. Going to be some crazy intense snow...probably thundersnow too and blizzard conditions.

April 2018 vibes!!!!! Expecting a MAJOR severe wx setup in May...bank on it. BIG ONE

For a second I thought you were talking about the severe wx

That's a great question. I don't think this will be any more volatile than that event but could be similar in magnitude, but displaced a bit farther west. Although one thing to keep in mind too is foliage...much more foliage now than January and that could produce more in the way of tree damage. I really don't think the full extent of the tornado potential will be known until late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

High risk is possible but I still think there are a few things that could negate a high risk...or negate a very significant event from unfolding. It's rather difficult to really portray what I'm trying to say b/c I think a significant event does unfold but I guess it's do we see numerous tornadoes with several long-tracked tornadoes or is it predominately a damaging wind event with several tornadoes? Obviously a large scale widespread damaging wind event can still result in a high risk verification and I think that is possible here. But two things that stand out to me are; 1) Weakening EML 2) Perhaps widespread convective debris 3) Not so favorable llvl lapse rates But given the forcing aloft, dynamics, and degree of moisture return a significant and long persisting squall line is quite likely...maybe derecho like. But the lack of an EML may prevent discrete supercells from being the overall game mode...perhaps many initial supercells but congealing into multiple lines. Could be war of updrafts