weatherwiz
-
Posts
75,838 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by weatherwiz
-
CG’s going on and there’s a soccer game going on
-
Positioned myself just south of Windsor or southern side of Windsor
-
I knew it was hailing when a piece hit me in the forehead
-
Pretty decent wind signature too
-
Round 2 incoming!!!
-
Wow not a bad estimate
-
At BDL
-
Estimating 65-70 mph winds. Wonder what BDL got
-
ONFG!!!!!! Hail damaging winds!!!!
-
-
Holy shit!!!
-
BDL!!!
-
Leaving Branford and going to meet my friend in Enfield
-
The difference between the GFS/NAM tomorrow in some of these Northeast locations is insane...typically the NAM tends to overdo the clouds but the NAM is HOT in the warm sector...also noting it does have NBM support. Anyways...if the NAM is correct tomorrow with alot of its output there is going to be a quite a bit of severe weather with at least a few tornadoes tomorrow. Does this extend much into SNE...I'm not sure but I definitely would watch into SW CT.
-
Remains fairly unstable aloft through the night so I would anticipate we see showers and thunderstorms (elevated) through the overnight.
-
We've also mixed out dews some which is hurting the building of MLCAPE. Actually looks like there is a pocket of some lower dewpoint air in the llvls but looks like we do increase slightly later this afternoon. Also appears that there is a very diffuse boundary very near the CT/MA border. Maybe we do see two rounds of action today...one in a very small corridor from MA Pike to CT/MA border and then a second round later moving SW to NE across CT.
-
mid-level lapse rates are a little poopy right now but should steepen somewhat over the next several hours and MLCAPE should jump
-
Have to assess that radar further but it's possible that could have been a gustnado
-
I'm wagering between 6-8 and then need to watch again later on for another round
-
I am starting to lean in the direction of tossing the HRRR although not completely...yet. The "not completely yet" is due to the fact that it's been rather consistent in the 6/7-11 PM timeframe with rapid development across SW CT and moving NE. It has been very inconsistent though what happens late afternoon. Big differences too between 3km NAM/HRRR. I'm not a huge 3km NAM fan but I am inclined to believe it may have the best handle on how later today evolves.
-
I think this is a bit different though. I don't think this is a scenario of a cold front passing through and then stalling trying to retreat back north as a warm front. It basically just looks like the cold front stalls (and becomes a stationary front). It's actually a pretty diffuse boundary too so there is a possibility surface heating could contribute to some adjustments of the boundary...similar to what we saw last August.
-
That is some pretty crazy 0-1km shear tomorrow. It really won't take much CAPE in the lowest 2km for something to spin up.
-
NAM has a legit tornado threat into SW CT later tomorrow afternoon.
-
There are some hints on that on some of the models.
-
along/just southwest of the warm front tomorrow could be quite active. The 6z NAM Bufkit for EWR is actually quite eye opening. the 12z NAM coming out now but this is a massive challenge determining where the boundary stalls
