weatherwiz

I like to suffer

Those who thought summer was done are in for a nasty, nasty surprise.

yeah really noticed the dews going up in Branford earlier when I took a quick walk to the gas station. Summer is back

this type of negativity is not needed

Back-to-back punch. Derecho one day then a hurricane several days later.

The wet grounds will make the trees that much easier to topple over when we get a derecho in the next few weeks. If you have trees...admire them now, they may not be there by the end of the month.

Believe...you gotta believe.

Still there baby!!!

Holding firm but losing grip

This is super tough. Water vapor doesn't look terrible. Getting a nice defined area of convection just off the coast right around where the low center appears to be and that trough to the west, combined with the degree of ulvl divergence aloft...this could trend towards the more impressive side. Certainly can't rule out the axis of heaviest rain being as far west as HFD

IMO, it's not a matter of models being "west vs. east" it's how they are handling the evolution/development of a low pressure. I have been wanting to slide more towards a more evolved cyclone as well. Upper-level dynamics certainly support this with plenty of upper-level divergence over the region And you're starting to see some mid-level frontogenesis (albeit weak) present which certainly indications a strengthening cyclone mesoanalysis also has a broad low just off the Carolina coast. Nothing crazy evident on water vapor/satellite but there is definitely some circulation there and it's evident by the convective growth within that area. I think these ulvl dynamics are going to try real hard to get a more mature cyclone

It's all going to come down to how organized of a low pressure we get. If we get a well-organized, mature low we will see the axis of heavy rain not only shift west but encompass a larger area. If we see a weak low (with multiple lows) which is strung out...the axis of heavy rain is east and quite narrow and tied more into where the core of the LLJ traverses and strongest llvl forcing.

It's back baby!!!! EML time. It's happening. We're getting an EML and a high end severe weather event before the 20th. IT'S FREAKING HAPPENING

Talk needs to ramp up about damaging wind potential across (maybe RI) eastern MA

me too...maybe a sign for things to come during winter

TORs on the Cape

Note: SPC shifted general thunderstorm line EAST

I would think an argument could be made for a subtropical storm. Does look like it would be warm cored. I would think though any strengthening of such nature is probably more related to the pretty robust upper-level jet/divergence present over the region. That is really the only window I see for such low pressure organization/intensification. There is a bit of a barlocinic zone present but I don't think it's enough for a low to really take off. I'm guessing the area of convection just off the SC coast is the area of interest. Doesn't appear to be any real type of circulation present (or if so it's very weak).

The EML gets pushed to our north next week I also admittedly thought it was later in the week yesterday...I was thinking it was like Wednesday or Thursday and didn't realize it was a week out

The last one to the partly survives deeper into the night

Wow...looks like GFS hedging towards a NAM-like solution

This is the only thing that has me intrigued to yield a potential solution like this

I'm not so sure though it's a product of it being more west...I think it's more of how it evolves the low pressure. The 12z run has a much more mature surface low and is pretty much nearly perfect cyclogenesis. So I think the talk of models being "west vs east' is not necessarily correct...it's a matter of how the area of low pressure evolves. I am kinda torn on this. Looking at the ulvls the dynamics are quite impressive and support a great deal of ulvl divergence. However, given the stationary front it's more likely you'll see multiple areas of low pressure develop along it. Is it possible the NAM is going crazy with one specific shortwave or low? Very possible. Could it also be heavily influenced by convection? Possible. At this juncture I think I'd be less inclined to side with the NAM right now until there is additional (stronger) support. I would think one axis of very heavy rain tied right along where the best dynamics/forcing are...which is east of us. However, that ulvl jet structure is eye opening.

Should add even the GFS has it to some degree. both NAM/GFS bufkit for EWR Thursday night increase winds out of the NNE 10-15 mph with gusts to 20

NAM has an all out coastal storm rapidly materialize...some pretty impressive cyclogenesis. I mean I guess there is ulvl support for such a scenario to occur but it also looks like it is phasing energy with the ulvl to our west and s/w energy off the coast (associated with convection) and well maybe the NAM is a bit too overzealous in this instance. However, should a scenario like this evolve we could see two QPF maxes...one just NW of the low and the other tied into where the best dynamics/forcing occurs. 6z euro did seem to give the NAM some backing though...