weatherwiz

We'll probably be getting into mid-October and revised forecasts will still be calling for above-average activity.

Agreed. But maybe I should be more concerned than I am...I mean this isn't an area I have a ton of knowledge in but I'm sure this has to be impacting farmers, the agricultural market, probably those who rely on well water, etc. so it's gotta be pretty significant to them. But the reason I am not concerned if for the reason I mentioned...what are the odds we go through the fall without a few coastals? We can easily get 2-4'' of rain in one system.

While I am getting a little more concerned than I was with drought talk...we'll see what happens in fall. Summer is tough to do widespread synoptic rains...we rely on convection so naturally some areas are going to be hit while others aren't and some areas moreso than others. But if we go through a quiet fall and another sub-par winter...it could get ugly moving into next summer.

I envision it being fake

I used to really love fall and used to have equal love for all seasons but as I get older I hate fall and winter more and more. If anything it's just because of the cold. I used to have a higher tolerance for cold but not as much anymore. I honestly think driving is what lowered my tolerance for cold. I didn't get my driver's license until I was almost 26 so before then I used to walk everywhere (or take a bus...which still required walking) so in the winter's I was used to walking 1-2+ miles in the cold/wind/snow. It's just the cold/wind that drives me nuts. Snow I still love.

Which is funny b/c it's getting into those transition periods which features the most active weather. Some of our bigger snow events happen late January/February and the past several years we've had some pretty decent convective events in August (and of course we've had some tropical impacts mixed in too).

Looking beyond D10. The pattern relaxes a bit in the D10 but looks to re-load back up. Going to be quite hot across the country

Re-load baby Well I guess we'd have to define that. Will it be 97-99...IDK. Obviously that gets tough to do as we get into late August and early September. But we could be looking at a pretty long stretch of impressive warmth. This go around we've had a slowly sagging cold front. The way the pattern looks to become established across the country it may be tough to get any appreciable fronts through for a bit.

We are going to bake once again heading towards the end of the month.

I keep getting excited b/c I think I hear thunder but it's people bringing in their garbage cans

These types of convective schemes are very difficult to model. The large-scale lift is very weak so you're really looking for very diffuse, finite drivers to develop the convection which really come down to almost a micro-scale level.

well we got the marginal tomorrow...didn't think it would be such a big area.

I wonder if we see a marginal risk tomorrow from like along and east of I-91

GFS 79 for PWM tomorrow, NAM 73, and NBM 85

It's a scary situation for those along the coast. The coast has seen substantial development since Bob in the early 90's.

Every year we are tempting fate when it comes to tropical

I thought we were talking about 1944 not 1844

Did people complain about sensors then?

Of course strengthens east of here

I am so sick of the damn summers. They’re fooking fake and garbage…trash. Tired of this fake Convective crap, tried of crap trying to be turned into crap, tired of these stupid pieces of crap garbage crap being labeled as not crap when they are crap b/c they’re crap. I mean I don’t even know what to say anymore. Just why…why…why. It’s so fooooking maddening ughhhhhhhhh

Might end up causing that line to weaken rather quickly soon

I know there are the cooler temperatures up in Maine and just north of there, but that seemed to be more of a product of stratiform rain which develops along a developing stationary front associated with the frontal system. Then some weird looking mini high pressure at the surface but lots of clouds/moisture in the llvls. I suppose there could be a weak BD signal there given the winds but it seems...fake lol.

Is it even really a backdoor though?

Looks like the GFS is much faster with the FROPA and then has some sort of weak "high" pressure at the sfc but it looks rather weird. The Euro seems to make much more sense with how the first half of the week evolves...very slow progressing front which either washes out or stalls just off the coast.

Wow that's pretty impressive given the shear, especially given CAPE isn't totally out of this world. Sometimes those days we get like 3500-4000 SBCAPE and 2500 MLCAPE are more fun than lower CAPE/higher shear.