weatherwiz

It is very possible at some point in the future there could be discussions about reclassifying tornadoes, however, I think it would be extremely challenging. However, given the increase in technology we have now it's very possible we can classify tornadoes on the scale without them having done any damage...so long an accurate wind measurement can be recorded. Given increase in radar technology too we can probably become (more) accurate and precise on estimating winds speeds from radar

they should just cancel that guidance altogether

THAT'S RIDICULOUS

This was exactly my thought but then I went right to your second point...a 4F swing would be massively insane. I also briefly thought maybe one is averaging the period and one is focusing on the beginning or end of the period...but no way there is a 4F swing either over the course of the week.

ummmm WTF

It's very intriguing, especially if we can destabilize. I'm just pissed that with this mlvl flow we can advect in steeper lapse rates. Height falls are quite impressive though with more than sufficient shear.

Despite lackluster shear there has been sufficient CAPE in the hailgrowth zone these past few days to warrant the strongest cores to produce hail.

That is quite an interesting take and does make some sense. Over this past month we have seen a back-and-forth wobble going on. It looks like big heat wants to become established into our area but the way the Arctic configures really wants to suppress the heat back to our Southwest...but we have seen with this stretch that once that relaxes the big heat is getting in here. We're either doing a pattern of slightly below-average or way above-average...there is no in the middle. I kinda of agree with your thoughts too about going forward...we may very well see a pattern evolve which becomes very omega like...there are some precursors to this trying to occur but there are alot of moving pieces and lots of uncertainties with how the seasonal pressure center's become positioned and shaped moving through the month.

I was looking at that yesterday...that would be pretty ugly. Kinda afraid that could be a pre-cursor to a sustained pattern across the West.

Is it true the storm tops exceeded 60K across NY?

This stupid jet stream and stupid pattern upcoming is pissing me off. It's just going to be a boring zonal garbage flow with pieces of heat breaking off from the Southwest and floating our way...WHY CAN"T they bring EMLs with them....ummmm because there is no stupid trough moving through the West to displace this EML air east. Just these stupid lifting troughs in the Northwest...ok so EMLs may get pushed into Canada...you would think maybe they would ride the jet and come at us...NOPE. We aren't getting crap for severe in that pattern...big freaking deal maybe some MCS activity with NW flow...flow is garbage everything is garbage. Our big events that happen with NW flow...it's not just b/c of the NW flow its when they occur with a steep lapse rates regime. with this flow you typically get height falls and if you have a southerly flow at the sfc...well warm/moist low-levels and the NW mid/upper levels...dry and cool. then the EML prevents the dry/cool mixing down and mucking up CAPE...CAPE eater I like to call it...or CAPE destroyer. Boring...boring...stupid.

I remember that event...was huge national news headlines. That was some summer too for severe weather from the northern Plains through the upper-Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Obviously we had the derecho on 7/15/95 but we had the Great Barrington F4 on 5/29 and there were other events too. That 7/15/95 derecho may be one of the more impressive ever in terms of longevity...think that originated from like MT/ND or southern Canada. In fact 1995 was a wild year for weather...the winter was nuts

I love staring out the window and fantasizing TCU's rapidly rising and gaining altitude as they ascend through the troposphere and spread out across the sky upon reaching the tropopause. Actually got to view this with the storms last week. It was clear as day out ahead of that line...which doesn't happen very often here (outside of EML's). One thing about today though is there's a quite a bit of shear currently but looks to weaken through the day. the HRRR is pretty aggressive for today. Have to watch out for a differential heating axis which may evolve

Could maybe see some room for some heavy rain next weekend. Can't rule out a wave of low pressure developing along the stalled boundary. Would be tied into any potential MCS development across the northern Plains/upper-Midwest.

I see SPC put up a marginal up this way for today. Was waiting for that. Today is certainly not a huge severe threat and not even certain about coverage of thunderstorm activity but some damaging wind gusts definitely possible.

Was sitting in my car and lunch and I could feel the humidity rising. This is what we live for

There is certainly a backdoor signal on both the GFS/Euro for mid-to-late week (somewhere in that period). It's not a very strong signal and don't think it would be a strong front but something that could result in 70's along NE coast and 80's inland as opposed to 90's. Very possible too the strong sun angle/eating ends up mixing the boundary out as it moves inland given it doesn't appear to be very strong.

This is an excellent point. This is why I am super intrigued in the period. It doesn't appear we will be dealing with a strong cap. there have also been subtle hints at some EML plumes working our way...which *makes sense* given we may be on the southern periphery of the westerlies but as I alluded too earlier...when you're dealing with plumes as opposed to large-scale EML air...it gets very dicey trying to time then with appropriate features (fronts, s/w)

Especially here...it's much better across NY/PA and then across northern New England given their closer proximity to fronts/shortwaves and the better dynamics which typically resides across southern Canada during the summer. I think northern New England is extremely underrated in terms of severe weather potential during the summer. 1) Lack of population so many events go unreported; 2) there is still sketchy radar coverage throughout the region, 3) they often get into better overlap of CAPE/dynamics. I would wager outside of PA/NY VT/NH/ME are the better spots for severe in the Northeast

the severe threat is really just secondary. All I really want is just active summer in terms of thunderstorms...thunderstorms which offer nice shelf clouds and lots of lightning. If there happens to be hail or high winds...that's just a bonus. Although internal moisture does increase when thinking and hoping for these phenomena

I do remember this as well (like in the 90's). That was a decade where it seemed we would get nasty squall lines each summer...like the type of lines that went from Maine through PA. I used to get pissed too because they would ALWAYS without fail die as soon as they got into western Connecticut. I remember people telling me we didn't get severe weather or tornadoes because of the hills and then the stuff about Long Island Sound killing storms. I always thought both those were crap. Don't get me wrong...Long Island does hinder things with sea-breeze BUT I think the overall killer with squall line setups anyways is the line of thunderstorms outrun the better upper support and forcing.

But this sucks next week will be like mid-June and really after mid-July the likelihood for widespread severe threats or potential tends to drop off. Sure we can get some nice/big events into August but they aren't as likely as earlier in the season. And forget moving to the Plains or even going chasing in the Plains...Tornado Ally has and is shifting farther East...who knows, maybe in 15-20 years it will be across the East. Everything is becoming ridiculous

I am still really liking that June 10-14 period for severe weather...maybe a setup that would yield a higher end threat too. Nothing screams EML advection but the pattern evolution could certainly throw an EML plume our way. Things get very dicey though when you're just getting plumes of EML thrown your way b/c then it's really all about timing.

The question is...how long does it last? It's a very interesting pattern moving into next weekend (globally) and with a -AAM state combined with several other factors, looks like there would be wave breaking across the western Atlantic...or you would at least expect this to occur somewhere. This could promote trough potential in the east or at least some BDCF potential.

There has to be a high end severe threat in the northern Plains with that pattern...hell maybe some big potential across like MT or WY which I don't think is very common? I think June is going to have some surprises...by surprises I mean we aren't going to see an established pattern...it will be rather chaotic...hopefully that leads to a big severe chance. I think the upper-Midwest may get slammed in that department