weatherwiz

If this pattern continues to persist moving near the peak of tropical season we'll certainly need to watch out. What kinda pisses me off is every year you always see someone on social media hype up the crap that "SNE needs to watch out this fall" and all crap like that does is lessen the significance of that when that possibility is really there...and this really could be one of those falls. There will probably have to be some type of significant weather occurrence to really break this pattern and many long-range models actually establish a pattern which is even more favorable moving into the early fall.

that's going to be moving away from the states

Smoke/haze should increase moving through the day today. It actually felt a bit chilly this morning...but only briefly.

Sunday not looking so hot

llvl had to really be lacking. Given how steep those lapse rates are we were only able to generate ~1000 MLCAPE? The smoky sky hurt heating too and we never really eroded CIN

can't rule out a few pop up cells as the front approaches but pretty much done

yes

Watch for all of CT except Litchfield County until 8:00 PM.

they probably meant to say watch out for nothing

I'm a bit shocked really. They seem pretty gung-ho on convective coverage today. Maybe their all in on the HREF. But we've had far better setups (in terms of coverage) with no watch lol

MCD Watch Likely Mesoscale Discussion 1323 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021 Areas affected...Parts of northern Virginia...the District of Columbia...central/eastern Maryland...Delaware...southeastern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...southeastern New York including Long Island...Connecticut...Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 211432Z - 211530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered intensifying thunderstorm development is possible through Noon-2 PM EDT, posing a risk for at least marginally severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. With storms likely to become more widespread thereafter, a severe weather watch probably will be issued. DISCUSSION...A slowly southward advancing surface cold front has reached southeastern New England and the northern Mid Atlantic coast, with large-scale ascent likely to increase in a corridor along and ahead of it through early afternoon. This appears likely to be aided by forcing ahead of substantive mid-level short wave trough gradually turning east of the lower Great Lakes region. The strengthening lift will coincide with a narrow pre-frontal corridor of rapidly steepening near-surface lapse rates aided by daytime heating. Lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates are also relatively steep and, despite seasonably modest low-level moisture, it appears that this will contribute to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg (up to around 2000 J/kg). Although low-level wind fields are generally weak, 30-50+ kt cyclonic flow in the 500-300 mb layer is contributing to sufficient shear to support organizing clusters of storms. Isolated supercells are possible initially, and these storms may pose a risk for (mostly) marginally severe hail, before the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts become more prominent later this afternoon. Areas of deepening convective development are already evident along this corridor, and a severe weather watch will probably be issued within the next hour or two.

I wish (or wonder) if something like smoke potential will be something that can be added into bufkit.

and screwed our severe wx today

Pretty good way to sum it up and agreed

There is a pocket of some dry air aloft too...850 dews between like 6-8C. With a westerly flow and strong mixing we may mix dews out too. Some warm layers too on soundings and with this haze/smoke we probably don't erode CIN. oh well...next

pre-frontal is already pretty much past us lol

Good catch I don't know if it's me or my keyboard but I've been constantly missing keys...I think it's a product of me using two fingers to type

So many flags today I feel like the flag waver at a NASCAR race

Looking at mesoanalysis this morning this has really turned to crap.

wagons southeast

It also looks like timing has slowed by a couple hours which coins be a good sign

Pretty much HRRR vs. other CAMs at this point

50 shades of Haze

I think the 3km NAM is trash anyways.

WOAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH 18z HRRR with an explosion of convection tomorrow!!!! embedded supercells for all.