weatherwiz

With 3000 J/KG of MUCAPE and hail CAPE ~400-500 J/KG there may be some prolific CG's with stuff today...especially the more intense action.

It's best to keep two hands on the wheel

Severe Watch coming soon. Was actually wondering if there would be debate for a TOR

Yeah that drying up is a good thing...but also a bad thing because latent heat release could act to further weaken the mid-level lapse rates a bit more but actually they looked to have steepened some. Makes sense for them to do so though as we do have CAA aloft in the mid-levels as the trough/subsequent height falls approach.

There is some legit dewpoint pooling going on. LCL's have actually lowered quite a bit. 2000+ J/KG of MLCAPE with 45-55knots of bulk shear to go along with 150-200 m2s2 of effective helicity and 100+ m2s2 of sfc-500m helicity. If anything robust develops in that environment it could go to town. Have to watch southern VT/NH and western MA the next few hours

NAMNST (3km NAM whatever the hell you want to call it) is quite wild today. I have very mixed feelings with this model, but when it goes wild I think you need to take note. Its output makes sense based on the parameters and setup.

Already 2000 J/KG of MLCape region wide which is pretty remarkable for the time of day. Very tough to get MLCAPE values that high with weak mid-level lapse rates, but this is being compensated by dewpoints which are in the 74-77F range. We are pretty capped right now though which is very good, otherwise I think we would see lots of crap going up. With 45-55 knots bulk shear over the region and the high dews we don't need much heating to get things going. Solid height falls through the day and good shortwave support. May be able to see some widespread wind damage from CT into RI and E MA to the coast later on.

The HRRR I think can be tossed. Very inconsistent with how things unfold. Maybe it will get a better handle in the upcoming hours.

When shear is as strong as it is you don't need full heating or max instability to generate severe weather. While the cloud cover will certainly be one factor negating a more widespread severe weather event it won't completely kill the potential. What we'll probably see today is a few small clusters or lines which produce a swath of damage each.

Yeah regardless of any error the longevity of temperatures that high is still quite impressive. Outside of using 100 as a benchmark, it terms of impressiveness (speaking again on the duration here) there is no difference between a bunch of 98 and 99's vs. 100 or 101's. I've always wondered just how much influence a dry/wet ground has on overall temperature potential but you have to wonder if that is playing some role. During this stretch EWR is routinely overshooting MOS/NBM by as much as 3-5F.

As long as we don't get alot of crap we should be able to maintain those 2-6km lapse rates. Based on satellite we should be able to get some good pockets of heating which will help to steep low-level lapse rates as well. Thinking this is going to turn into a Pike South day. northern Connecticut on east may be best spot today.

Pretty good DCAPE values and steep 2-6kkm lapse rates present. There may be room for a good swath of wind damage today

or the mid-Atlantic...remember there were some runs showing like 105-110 into the Carolina's

I think the tornado potential is rather low, but we should be able to see supercells early on in development but hodographs become more straight as opposed to curved as the day progresses (maybe some splitters?). DCAPE though running decently high though (800-1000 J/KG) so damaging winds is certainly the main hazard here.

Unfortunately I can't do much, if any, chasing today. I may get lucky and be able to do BDL after my dentist appointment depending on timing.

Should see a few pretty nasty storms today. Seems like extensive cloud cover and weak lapse rates will hold overall potential back a bit but if any cell can become mature enough and generate a strong enough updraft that can maintain...oof.

Maybe a bunch of trees got tossed into the dome. wow…that is a sick storm.

Did ENX get blown away???

This convection tonight (which has held together a bit better than guidance indicated) could aid in some residual boundaries for tomorrow which could locally enhance potential

Mid-level instability is more of a product of change of temperature with height (lapse rate). High dews can certainly help, But it’s not as much of a boost as a steep lapse rate. The greater the difference between the parcel temp and environmental temp, the more violently the parcel will accelerate. This helps to contribute to faster updrafts speeds which can be a significant driver in severe potential

Good idea, thanks. Last thing I want to have to do is re-paint.

12z GFS Bufkit for EWR supports 100

Can’t wait to go outside in a bit and paint and soak in all this heat/humidity. Painting the outside of a door and some trim and the area is shaded so don’t think the heat will impact the paint b/c there is no direct sun on the area. I just want to soak in the heat and humidity.

Taylor Swift has her own brand thermometer? Cool

Very well said. Part of being lured into extreme weather phenomena also has to deal with communicating such. That's why anyone involved in weather forecasting has the responsibility of warning others. We want to see extreme weather events, but we don't want to see damage to property and we don't want to see deaths. Unfortunately, those are going to happen, but there is a responsibility to warn people and provide them with as much guidance as possible so they can take measures to 1) protect their lives and their families lives and 2) protect their property.