weatherwiz

I'll be so glad when we're out of winter and we don't have to see model snowfall maps for several months.

I hope Anthony enjoys his severe

Lightning just SW of Philly!!

Here we go!!

We tried to tell em

It is kinda hard seeing that being real...though obviously stranger things have happened. However, the force of the winds to drive the car that high (though maybe there is a parking garage across the way...think the article mentions that?) would have had to be quite impressive at that location...impressive enough to where there would have likely been significant structural damage (like Scott said)...or at least significant roof damage...there is only a bit of roof damage. Also, look at that railing...are you telling me the car JUST missed the railing and the railing is not broken? Plus looking closer...it doesn't even look like the car goes into the building at all

whoops...looks like i forgot to buy an "s" just like this winter

Since this includes SNE I can post it in here haha. Very low probability but if there were to be a brief tornado this evening the area circled in red would be favored spot. Highest helicity occurs down this way and perhaps some of the strongest (though still weak) instability. Continued signal for a short line/cluster of rain/thunder to move into SNE which may be accompanied by some strong gusts

you have a better chance to see a severe t'storm tonight

or snow in a particular backyard

ughhh heart-breaking to see that.

I didn't really pay close attention either outside of just a general forecast. I know the SPC was considering an upgrade to enhanced with the 20z outlook. the environment was characterized by very steep lapse rates and strong shear so there was definitely some support with some of the ingredients. IIRC one of the greatest concerns was whether convection would become sfc based.

At first i was thinking strong EF2/weak EF3 but the latest stuff I saw has me thinking high end Ef3...at least. Terrible situation

Yikes...maybe a high end EF3...at least based on some of the latest photos

Showing something for 2 days prior is different than doing something 6-7+ days out

I would think it would actually yield the opposite...a slower flow. Just basing that on the idea that the Arctic region seems to be warming fastest so that would result in a reduced temperature gradient between the Pole and Arctic. But this could be totally wrong...especially given we have seen some crazy fast ULJ recently. While temperature gradient is a driver in the jet there are other factors too and perhaps they hold as much weight as temperature gradient alone.

Death toll at 19...Jesus

The connections to blocking (or a lack of) have been interesting. I've read a little bit about this and the arguments I think from both sides make some interesting points. From what I gather it seems like blocking may become less frequent, however, when we do see blocking it could be pretty impressive. The deviations to the PJ I think are most interesting and it really makes a great deal of sense how it would retreat farther north more towards the EPO region. The connection with the Hadley Cell/Walker cell is another very interesting tidbit...not sure how extensive the research is into this but it's something I certainly want to explore more b/c this could have significant implications on the transition seasons.

I don't think you can ever truly connect climate change to a single weather event, however, what you can do is make connections of climate change to the atmospheric pattern configuration...or something along those lines. For example, if the PJ averaged more north this winter and that has been a theme more often than that over the past several years compared to the longer-term mean you can make an argument (based on ideas of how a warmer climate would argue for this) that is a relation to climate change along with other factors which may have helped (ENSO, QBO, etc).

I agree with this. In fact, this can be said about many potential weather events. I've been doing alot of thinking about this lately...and this stems from discussions had in class, listening to what people have to say about weather forecasts/information, and just surfing through social media. We see alot of talk (here included) where the models are always to blame...despite what statistics indicate. But is the problem within the models or how information regarding weather is being presented? I think it's the latter and I think it's actually a huge problem and it's leading to people just losing faith/confidence in weather forecasting. It's one thing to have discussions "internally" but there is just so much information thrown around on social media that the general public just doesn't need to know or see...and it's b/c they just don't know how to interpret it (which is not their fault). There is so much information posted which is geared towards the "only if" "or what if" category and this provides absolutely zero value to the public and creates more harm than good. The general public doesn't care that 8 out of 51 EPS members show a massive storm 7-days out. What's even the point is posting this information (for the public to see)? I understand there is the idea of providing lead time and there is that whole idea of "I want to be the first one to mention it" but it's not done correctly IMO and that is evident by the public's reaction to this material.

Should actually see a decent little line move through later this evening. Don't think we'll see severe gusts but perhaps 30-40 mph. If enough elevated instability can develop maybe some small hail or grauple mixed in.

This is something to really watch. Could catch people off guard but this is a pretty decent signal showing up. Could really be enhanced should any narrow zone of fronto either develop over eastern sections or traverse over eastern sections.

High EF-2/low EF-3

Enjoy your gusty line segment tonight. Maybe if you're lucky you can get some small hail to bounce off the noggin or the grand prize of them all...a brief quick TOR

Funny...winter storm threat this weekend lessens and severe wx potential looming this evening...perhaps into SW CT