weatherwiz

no EML

I made a post about Wednesday yesterday morning. I had thought there was a chance to get some steeper mid-level lapse rates but models kinda backed off on that. Obviously SBCAPE is going to be through the roof given the high temps/dewpoints but as Scott said, MLCAPE is what you want to look at. The NAM is generating insane MLCAPE values tomorrow but its also spitting out Td's into the mid-70's. Now is that possible...it certainly isn't uncommon to see dewpoint pooling ahead of an approaching front but I'm not totally sold yet on dews that high (but I haven't looked in detail to say this for sure). One issue I see with for tomorrow is the strongest shear being displaced from the strongest instability, however, there is enough shear across northern/central New England to certainly warrant some supercell potential there. Given tall/skinny CAPE profiles and high PWATS greatest risks will be 1) Vivid/frequent CG lightning 2) Localized flash flooding (poor drainage) 3) Localized damaging wind gusts/hail I'll do a thread later...and include Thursday. Thursday could be decent

Looks like we should see scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms Wednesday. Should even see a few localized severe thunderstorms. Lightning will be greatest risk...probably quite a bit of CG's. Lapse rates don't look overly terrible but greatest dynamics just a bit displaced from greatest instability. Could see some localized flash flooding too given PWATS

probably found a way to tickle it inbetween obs

Seattle broke their daily high record at 10:26 AM

Can't believe GFS bufkit still making a run for 120F at PDX tomorrow

The signals for a pretty meh weekend next weekend have been there for several days. It's jut a question of what kinda meh are we talking about. Cool/cloudy with areas of showers around of warm/on the muggy side with areas of showers and thunderstorms.

Atmosphere was incredible those final few innings. Was my first sporting event since Covid…felt amazing

Decided to go to Sox/Yanks tonight. Should be a great evening

bored out of my mind so I replied with a to all

@dendrite wtf...

That's incredible...wow. That is an excellent question. Those numbers sound about right to me...but even if the perfect mid/upper level pattern were to unfold there would still be some moderations from vegetation/moisture and dewpoints. Even with a predominately NW flow we probably would still be looking at 40/50 dewpoints. I'm sure topography is likely also enhancing the heat out there

HOLY CRAP at the GFS bufkit for PDX Monday

I would assume we could be looking at some pretty big record warmth into the southern tier of the Arctic domain?

Daily 500mb height records will be shattered this week across the PAC NW. Hell...likely even all time possible

Makes a ton of sense. That's also another wildcard factor that is quite difficult to assess the lag between the change in an atmospheric/oceanic state. For example, let's say we do transition to EL Nino for the winter...we could feature EL Nino conditions within the ocean but the atmosphere is still "Nina-ish". If we do go to EL Nino it will be interesting to see how quickly that transition occurs. Historically the transition from Nino --> NIna seems to happen much more easily than Nina ---> to El Nino but 1965, 1972, and 1976 saw such occurrences...although 76 was much more late blossoming

I haven't gotten around to read your post-winter analysis yet but did you address any reasonings as to why it didn't behave like you thought?

And more precisely how they evolve/behave over the course of the season. Which this is something that I think Ray does very well with in his seasonal outlook presentations. Some out there who issue seasonal outlooks just focus on the variables as a whole and try to justify a seasonal forecast based off the state as a whole or a single state (for example, -NAO vs. +NAO). But IMO it's also more than just PNA, EPO, NAO, etc...it's trying to gauge what driver or drivers will hold the biggest influence on the shaping of the global pattern.

I think it’s a huge factor right along the immediate coast but not really as far inland as one would think. I’ll respond in better detail as to why I think so tomorrow when (if) I can get to my computer.

Watch line go through CT lol. Horrifically threw my back out earlier picking something up. Worst I’ve ever done it. Barely got myself to my bed then took me 3 hours to be able to get back up. This means line will be severe here b/c I can’t get to the airport

I think it’s more of a factor that the best forcing/lift is way northwest. The storms rapidly weaken as they move east b/c they outrun the better upper support. I think the south wind/marine taint stuff gets too much credit when talking about decaying thunderstorms here.

I don’t really have much knowledge of this but what Scott says makes sense. @OceanStWx wound probably have the best input.

Could be some pretty nasty supercells across upstate NY Monday afternoon. Meh for severe here but should see some decent rain spread throughout the region next few days

meh...timing looks a bit off and looks like greatest potential...surprise...south and west of our area. Although SW CT could be in a decent spot. But can't totally right it off...models differing in timing.

I have been away on vacation (on the way back but stuck in Delaware due to someone getting killed by a train or something). Trying to look at stuff on my laptop but the train WIFI sucks