weatherwiz

I remember when I used to switch between that and Steel Reserve...but St. Ides became super hard to find so I switched to Steel Reserve. I miss Steel Reserve but alas I retired from it December 12, 2018. Perhaps one day I'll come out of it for retirement (like if the Bruins play another game 7 Stanley Cup game...I only didn't do it last year b/c I went out to watch it).

Oh for sure...I'm certainly not looking to get rich overnight haha. More of a way to slowly learn more about investing and perhaps make a small profit over time. My friend wasn't looking to get rich either...he just got like super lucky with those options of Tesla...but he had enough money so he also bought shares of ADT when it was $18...he bought 714 shares and made $10K haha. My goal though is definitely more long-term investing, but at the same time if I can do some stuff with day trading and just go from there.

A friend of mine got me hooked into Robinhood. I've only been doing this for maybe 6 weeks or so but it's been a ton of fun. My friend is killing it too...had a week where he made like $30,000 lol. I still don't fully understand trading/stocks but I guess he had these options but he acquired Tesla the day or two before it went up like $200+ in that one day...made out with $17,000. He also has more money than I do currently to play around with but my first purchase was a share of Microsoft when it was $167 and when it went up to over $180 I sold and made a little profit! My best was SPCE...bought 4 shares when it was $18 a share and a few days later it exploded to $40...then I sold at $32 just before it crashed down. Also made well with ADT. At some point soon there will be money to be made...should be able to get some excellent stocks low that should explode when this whole virus (hopefully) blows over.

Ughhh hiking in Newtown and just noticed a tick on me

Of course haha

I always wash my hands before using the bathroom

i wish I was alive in 1951...I am always mesmerized at this long tracked tornado that went through CT. Very underrated tornado. Anyways, if I was alive...I WOULD HAVE SEEN IT!!! I've marked 3 locations I've lived in West Hartford. ughhhhhhhh Here's a wider view

What I find half amusing is the general public will complain about hyped weather forecasts yet they keep reverting back to the SAME sources which hype weather...it's like they're drawn in and can't escape. This is why there is truth to what Kevin says...hype sells. Hype does sell and it's an unfortunate shame. I've had to do that too with TWC haha...last winter someone at work sent me this article about that was written about the Polar Vortex...I had to explain what it was and what it really meant in terms of weather.

Agreed...I think I mentioned that a few times as one of the main reasons why models have struggled. When flow is fast there are usually so many moving pieces and any one of those can be the main player.

I've had to leave alot of those groups...nothing but garbage. these people hype everything up and then get all upset and blame the models...but they're the clowns who screwed up. Oh hey the total snowfall accumulations through 384-hours show 47.5'' from location A to location B the next 15 days is going to be epic

This is actually something I think about alot. Was it the case of the models being bad or is it how information is being portrayed/relayed? I know I've said this a million times but I think it's important enough to do so. This is something you see all over social media and I saw it at school but too many folks just run to model snowfall maps, SLP maps, QPF maps and use those as a basis for a forecast or as a means to communicate weather instead of analyzing the bigger picture. (This isn't pertaining to anyone here on the board...this is geared to social media/what I've seen from those around me). But what happens is these situations don't pan out and the models get the blame and nobody wants to take responsibility for their wrong doing. I know you're part of many groups on facebook and active on twitter so you'll know what I'm talking about but so many people try to use a model snowfall map for however many days down the road as a basis to indicate there is potential for a storm or a big storm...now I guess in a way you can do that as it means the model is "showing a storm". But just b/c a model shows a storm doesn't automatically mean there is potential. The bigger picture needs to be analyzed. If the model is showing a storm but the pattern doesn't seem to support it or it doesn't make sense...chances are it's not going to happen. You can't assess this just by looking at a QPF map or snowfall output map. Before these model snow maps became a thing actual forecasting and diagnostics had to be a thing. How many of these D7-10 day storms would get the attention they did without them? Probably very few of them. I get it's fun within the weather community and it's all good fun to post them here (b/c everyone knows how to handle them) but when they get tossed around social media it becomes a big problem and it generates hype. This is leading to the public to lose confidence in meteorologists...I hear this stuff all the time from people. IMO though winter weather forecasting has become terrible and the biggest shame is the ones out there who do a phenomenal job with it (forecasting, communicating, etc) are being overshadowed. People look at snow maps and it's off to the races. GFS snow map shows 15-25'' over a large area (even though when looking at the setup it's extremely unlikely) and it's "sound the alarms...historic storm coming". Storm happens...drops 8-12'' (still significant) and it gets labeled bust b/c a freaking map output showed 2-3x that. I don't understand the love for the model snow maps...whether it's just pure laziness, the fact they can show a ton of snow which people love...idk. It's not like they even incorporate the most important ingredients to determining snowfall. Oh yeah let's take model QPF (which models suck at to begin with) and multiply that by a fixed constant ratio (which ratios throughout the storm are not fixed or constant) and viola that's how much snow is going to happen...and then...and then you have the maps WHICH INCORPORATE SLEET....WHO THE HELL CAME UP WITH THAT IDEA???? Take that code and slap it right across the face of the individual who did that. Obviously models aren't perfect and they are subject to wavering (even inside a certain amount of time) but if there was more focus in analyzing the synoptics and features aloft with enough skill and knowledge very solid forecasts can be made...this is how humans beat computers in terms of forecasting and why computers will never take over. Forecasting is much more than just rip and reading model output and making a forecast.

All these failed events are maddening. Thankfully convective season is approaching and we won't have to do with fail as much

Nice to see CAPE in the greens starting to pop up!!! Even some over us

Looking at latest global SSTA data and quite a few things pop to mind: 1) Are we headed back to a -PDO regime already? If so, the latest positive phase may be one of the shortest since the late 1950's. 1a) Still with the PDO, the configuration of the Pacific combined with the bursts of MJO activity this winter, and QBO makes you wonder if we will see a strong La Nina develop moving through the next 12-18 months. 1b) Tying into ENSO and La Nina potential, but will have to watch the WHWP over the course of the summer and how it migrates across the Pacific relative to climo...if migration is not as far east as it should be this could vastly increase the likelihood of La Nina and also influence tropical forcing. 2) AMO still positive...I remember back like 10 years ago my guess was we would see the AMO perhaps start the descent towards negative territory around the start of this decade...but historically we may still have another 15+ years of +AMO to deal with (actually look like the positive phase dominates for as much as 40 years with negative phase closer to 30) 3) I wonder how quickly SST's recover/warm in the Gulf of Mexico but they're relatively cool now (thanks to all those strong fronts). Not really connecting this for tropical season, but severe season. There is research which shows some correlation to SSTA's in the GoM and spring severe...and it makes sense that there would be. for example, in the historic season of 2011 SSTA's in the GoM were quite positive due to the lack of FROPA's into the GoM

No need to worry...we'll be budding and sprouting like a chia pet over the next few weeks. Greenery is coming

There are only two "s" words which should be mentioned moving forward...sun and severe

GFS even getting some sfc CAPE close by towards the end of the run

I don't get all this talk of cold and snow when we're looking at one of the warmest Morch's in recent times.

I feel so bad for you. Your winter lasted like 2 days and the Mets season will be about 1-2 days. They'll be a GB after losing opening day and it will just be downhill from there. But it's time to embrace spring man...love it, enjoy it. Lotion up the Monday and just lay outside and enjoy as your thermometer tickles 70

That was a super cute story..even shed a tear.

This is actually a good example where EPS (outside of looking at individual members) could be rather mis-leading. The window is so small that when looking at EPS for that period that signal is extremely muted but when you look at the individual members Tip posted you can actually see the signal much more clearly. That may be our final shot at anything...I think after that cold shot is when we really warm up.

That's exactly what it's going to take..something extremely well and perfectly timed and obviously there is really no way to know that in advance...I suppose there could be some signals in the medium/long range (very similar to what Tip was pointing out. but if it were to happen...I think it's something that gets picked up on 2-3 days out...not something we're tracking 7-10 days out.

I can't disagree that a pattern relaxation may qualify (though I am arguing that in this instance) as historically sometimes that all you need...is a relaxation in the pattern. IMO, there is just so much going against us that even in a relaxation it isn't enough to yield significant potential.

I totally agree that there certainly is still some decent cold bottled up there in southeast Canada with some cold 850's, however, it's been that way through much of the winter. I'm not really using persistence at all with my thoughts or forecast...(well perhaps that's a lie) but in order for us I think to utilize that we're going to need to see some drastic pattern change...something much more than just a "relaxation" in the flow. Also, that cold can easily be eroded in the coming weeks. I guess you can argue that by saying this warm look can easily erode too but IMO everything points/signals towards the warmth dominating and by everything I mean global teleconnections. I know they begin to lose their correlation as we move into spring, but at least through the end of model guidance some of those signals remain strong and continue to drive the hemispheric configuration.