weatherwiz

When it comes to tropical I put very little stock in the Euro. It's been pretty horrendous the past few years in that department.

Rotation looks incredibly weak in that TOR. Doesn't even look to be much actually

yeah until we have a clearer picture of Henri's strength/structure some of the details being focused on are pretty minute. Like Ray said, the fetish regarding model initialization strength is very strange. Agreed, which is why I' not 100% taking this at face value. It can be thrown out the window any time there is an opportunity for RI but I don't think we'll see any RI with this...despite the SSTA's being a few degrees C above-average they're still only around +28C to +29C which is a bit below the threshold that you would like to see for RI.

IMO. how models initialize strength right now is pretty useless for the overall picture here. Until we see how 1) Henri fully responds to the stronger shear through today 2) How much Henri intensifies when it moves into a more favorable environment...and it is this overall which will large depict what happens. The only thing model initialization is going to impact is {model} evolution of the storm. All we know right now is a range of possibilities.

Yes...I am quite concerned about this here. I'm not concerned about winds...though a prolonged period of even 30-40 mph or 40-50 mph gusts would be quite problematic.

www.iamaweenie.com

They're discontinuing this page after the 31st Says you can email to request access to the new page but what is meant by call sign??? Ham radio call sign???

I'm going to wager that we probably see a consensus from the GEFS start to shift east and this is purely based on the intensity guidance (which I'm not going to take at 100% face value) but there is pretty strong consensus of peak intensity with only a few members going into cat 2/borderline cat 3 strength. However, there is a bit of a spread as to how strong of a cat 1 this could get.

I am with you in that boat.

Certainly a noticeable shift west towards the GEFS. Still a decent amount of spread though between the globals/hurricane models and GFS. What caves to which?

Heard from a friend that all offices east of the Mississippi will be doing 18z balloon launches starting today.

Crazy rain driving down 91 from Windsor Locks...absolutely crazy. Ended up getting off exit 14 in Wallingford and taking some back roads into Branford. Judging by the ETA on my phone I'm guessing there must have been some accidents farther south along 91 or maybe even on 95 (which I'm only on for like 5-miles anyway). I did see the aftermath of a spin out in the HOV lane in Windsor but thankfully didn't come across anything else. I actually even saw some lightning near Wallingford!!!

Could be interesting say 5-8 AM tomorrow

Some subtle differences between the ulvl low between 12z/18z GFS. It actually looks a bit stronger this run but looks like maybe it just captures it a bit late (captures at a higher latitude this run)?

EDIT: That was 18z yesterday.

The Euro has been pretty trash with tropical systems the past few-plus years. Just something to consider here

probably quite likely if Henri is on the weaker side

I just really started looking at this within the half hour and I don't consider myself to be extremely knowledgeable with tropical so my thoughts should be taken with a grain of salt. Typically you'd like to see a trough sliding or amplifying moving across the Ohio Valley as a means to capture a storm and bring it up the coast. However, in this scenario, given Henri's latitude and the synoptic pattern I don't think that would be necessary in this scenario. There are a few key features that seem to glare out: 1. Potential development of high pressure across southeast Canada (there seem to be some differences in this development and overall structure, strength, placement) 2. Potential development of an upper-level low across the eastern-tier of the Ohio Valley (which models seem to be in pretty strong agreement on) 3. Bermuda High 4. Actual strength of Henri moving through the weekend (this could be the biggest key overall) I think a scenario like the GFS is showing is very low probability (but not impossible). I think direct impacts to SNE are low probability (not to say we may not see some showers, gusty winds) but surf will be very dangerous. The probability increases a bit heading out towards Cape Cod but perhaps not by much. What scares me about this type of scenario is lead time...if this sort of solution is say still on the table tomorrow...or Friday but guidance continues to be poor agreement...a massive decision needs to be made about how to communicate this to the public. 2-3 days for preparations really isn't enough (especially in a more dire scenario).

eh there really isn't that much time...especially when you're talking about communicating to the public and having to take appropriate measures.

WOW at the GFS solution. First glance the upper pattern doesn't seem extremely supportive but if there is an ULL which drops southeast as the GFS is suggesting that would support such a scenario.

We may certainly not see 90's but it's going to get quite humid and remain that way well into next week. And those who defend these thins will say "blah, blah blah but it's August and we're used to humidity"...who cares what month it is and what we're used too...humidity is humidity and those will make changes to adapt to it (hence run to AC)

Looks like daily max for OKX 12z on Aug 20 is 2.09''...they may very well break that

Friday should see dewpoints 75+. Probably see some areas even get 78-80. PWATS going to be through the roof...would wager we could be looking at daily records possible but that's just a guess.

I'm actually shocked there is no marginal in place for some area of the Southeast into the mid-Atlantic for tomorrow. Certainly could be a low prob risk for a tor where the remnants track. Probably be a situation too where it just happens from a meh looking convective shower that feeds off of just enough llvl CAPE/shear. Doubt we see much lightning with anything...going to be pretty capped given how warm it is aloft.

I have great interest in the idea of Hadley Cell expansion and would love to do some research on it. I'm just super limited with time and I really wish I knew how to code/program...it would make life so much easier. ENSO seems to be so popular because it's easy to draw a connection or correlation. Here is a La Nina winter and here is the [insert temperature, precipitation, H5 anomaly] map. The problem I think too is everything gets averaged. For example, grouping of the seasonal months together. I mean I guess if you're looking for average that's what you want to do...but how much value do you really get from that? What is the true value. it doesn't tell you anything about pattern changes or small-scale perturbations which are actually MORE important. Here's an example...I've attached two images. They each show DJF temperature anomalies ( used 1951-2010 average to account for recent warming) for each La Nina episode. At the bottom of the second image is the "average" of all these episodes. As you can see, just assessing all episodes averaged together really tells you nothing when assessing each episode on an individual basis. What you could decipher I suppose is you're more than likely to feature abve-average temps in the east, below in the west...but as you can see by what would be a large standard deviation...the spread on that is huge.