weatherwiz

It really is maddening. I don't want this to be mistaken as me hating winter or snow b/c I love snow...absolutely love it (can't stand the cold but if it will snow I'll take it). But there is just something about winter that is just maddening...people go crazy trying to find any justification possible that the "pattern is changing and we're going to get slammed". The biggest problem overall IMO is too many correlate to a specific weather pattern to a particular result...and this doesn't just imply to winter weather it refers to any weather event...tropical, severe, etc. You can see why though...from a research prospective + how our brains work it's very easy to correlate a pattern to an output. It's very easy to create 500mb patterns through re-analysis and there are many tools to do that. So boom you throw in height composites for 5 different snow storms (or tropical or severe) find a common pattern and boom...you have a "correlation". We also remember the times a pattern produces vs. the time it doesn't...and again it's much easier to do analysis on a pattern that produced than didn't produce b/c you can find the date of a particular event and go from there. But at the end of the day having a "favorable pattern" is an incredibly small piece to the puzzle and I think gets way more weight than it really should be getting. Yes, having a favorable pattern is just the start but there's a ton else that needs to happen within that pattern. So we have certain connections between pattern and output...for example, major severe weather outbreaks in the Plains have occurred with a trough digging through the West with a ridge in the East...but does every trough digging through the West produce severe weather...no. Does every trough in the East bring snow or an active pattern...no. Does every -NAO bring snow or an active pattern...no. Weather forecasting is just getting lazy and lazy b/c it is so easy to just find a 500mb height anomaly map, throw the picture up on social media and then type up some gibberish explaining the "what if" and calling it a day. I bet if one were to do extensive research...and I mean extensive the result would be that "favorable" patterns probably don't produce to the degree that one would think they do (and this again goes to all type of weather).

This is just another problem right here. There is just a constant barrage of social media posts that are nothing more than "what if's" and all it does is lead to immense hype and hope. What drives me absolutely nuts is the posts that state, "This is unlikely to happen but if it did...." WHY THE **** EVEN POST IT THEN? There is absolutely zero benefit or reason to post it...well with the exception of clicking profiles, likes, and new followers. How many times do we continue to see signals of any extreme in the long-range back off? Literally happens every single time. These freaking posts of one day "cancelling winter" to "winter is back" on a daily basis is nothing but an emotionally draining, giving people wrong idea, sense of crap. Then there always has to be a justification as to "why it's possible". Anyone can throw up a map of anything...anything and come up with some outlandish reason as to why some solution is possible. Could post a SLP map of the low pressure going through the Pains Wednesday which is going to be quite intense and say, "Ohhh if this system had more moisture there would be a major blizzard NW of the low" or "if moisture return was much stronger in the warm sector there would be a severe outbreak". "If that low tracked 700 miles east we would get snow". You don't post that what if crap b/c it's BULLSHIT

A different type of naked. The GFS tends to overmix (while the NAM tends to undermix)...why this is IDK but it's kinda annoying actually but how often do you see wind potential like this in a synoptic event? That part of the country does synoptic wind events much better than we do but this is still quite impressive for them. Winter dynamics aloft with a spring environment at the sfc

man that is going to be one crazy wind event in the Plains Wednesday. GFS may be overmixing a bit but some of the soundings are insane.

maybe you stole their snow

I got it too...I felt special but I did report it.

Forecasting within the West can be so challenging. How do people do it lol.

This broad meso has been going for a while. I bet there’s some wind damage occurring under it even a bit of a bow

That’s a scary thought

Now it’s damage time impressive stuff with that stuff as it went across NY

Nice

I was selling hot dogs

Thunder in Springfield!!!

I can't get over 500 m2/s2 of effective helicity juxtaposed with >1500 J/KG of MLCAPE and >100 J of 3km CAPE...it just seems unreal

Yes. The event and it's potential were very well forecast!

I think it's just a question of whether it was on the ground from it's initial warning point of near Jonesboro...may have to fully wait for survey but if it was then it will likely be official. Still can't believe this...so tragic

no signs of slowing down

Probably would be a miracle. NROT values exceeding 2

Remarkable...really hope everyone is alright

Really terrible and it's not going tp improve any over the next several hours.

That is a large TDS over Mayfied....holy crap

My God...500 m2/s2 effective helicity across western TN to go along w/greater than 100 J 0-3km CAPE and 2000 J/MLCape. That stuff is going to explode in western TN

this is only getting started too

Tornado emergency on that now