I don't think it can be discounted...but I am not a hurricane forecaster. I mostly rely on the model intensity guidance (which can be very iffy...especially in RI environments...this isn't one of those but I don't want to fully base something off a chart). Given the significance of that type of strengthening has on the outcome...it needs to be considered.
Yup...and I still don't think this west shift is done. Really not finding much reason to believe otherwise. If we don't see a shift east with 0z tonight I don't think it will happen b/c with the special 18z balloon launches going on (if that is still a thing) you would think the ulvl trough is going to be sampled very well plus the 0z balloon launches.
It's such a tough situation b/c you either have to play it up or downplay it right now...there is no in between. By the time we truly know how impactful or un-impactful this will be it will be too late to communicate and too late for people to prepare. That is the scariest part about tropical systems up this way...the lead time to properly prepare is just too little.
I'm thinking gusts 70-80 mph along CT shoreline with gusts 40-50 mph inland (especially east of River) with 30-40 west. In french we call this "la damage"
I'm gauging landfall either central or eastern Long Island. Bad news bears for CT. Trees either coming down or your floating down the road in a stream of water.
I am not personally, but I am frightened in the sense that there is little time for people to prepare or for people to truly understand what may transpire.
This x 1,000.
We can't get caught up over potential for hurricane force winds. A prolonged duration of gusts even 40-50 mph is going to do a quite a bit of damage. If we get into the 50-60 mph range...it will be on the ugly side. And well...that is becoming increasingly possible.
This is becoming quite, quite, quite concerning for CT. At some point the alarms have to be sounded because there is not much lead time to prepare now. Can't keep debating over west. vs. east...we'll be doing that up until the storm.