weatherwiz

This effective SRH is in the shape of a heart

Now we get to watch instability build west-to-east and fire up some strong storms later!!! I had 4 thunderstorms the other day...FOUR! The massive pounding at BDL, then went to Windsor and had a cute little CG producer, then like an hour after I got home, then 1-2 AM in the morning.

Good chance to add on too for the upcoming week. Nothing widespread but chances for thunderstorms just about everyday. Maybe a more widespread threat with the front end of the week. That probably stalls

Skies brightening up in Branford. Not far off from seeing some sun

Starting to wrap some drier air into the center. Actually may see that band really crank down over the next hour

The HRRR has been quite consistent in developing scattered thunderstorms later on. Supercell is a far stretch but should see some strong storms I think. I was thinking alot about that potential last night. I recall a very similar scenario last year (was it with Isaias?...it had to be) where there was alot of aggressiveness towards supercells and tornado potential and it did not materialize at all. Both times featured (what you would think) pretty impressive llvl CAPE/shear...but nothing really came about it. Unfortunately these type of setups/events aren't very common so it's difficult to do hardcore research. But my thinking is when you have an airmass that is so capped with so much going on (convection, showers), it's very difficult for what develops to fully utilize the ingredients available. Yesterday though...the llvl shear may not have been strong enough yet to produce...that Danbury cell was close. The window in these setups is small b/c what develops initially has a very short window before convection just blows up...and what happens is everything materializes into a widespread strataform rain shield. Perhaps a combination of too much strong isentropic lift and and not enough capping.

The HRRR blows a supercell through BDL later!!!

Does that constitute as WCB

Northeast Mass is going to get absolutely smoked. Tons of convective elements based on satellite trends.

Definitely my biggest concern. The in place part has been great with this humidity...the new stuff I use works wonders.

I'm pumped! I can hopefully go on my 12-minute walk to Dunkin/back during lunch!

definitely seeing a more east tick now and some more acceleration. back edge making some progress east

Looks like we're starting to wrap around some of that stronger LLJ...some stronger winds being sampled with that band moving through southeastern CT and phasing in with the band over 84. May certainly see some gusts 35-45 mph within that...nothing crazy but given the wet grounds could certainly knock some weakened trees or limbs down.

power just flashed

yeah I'm thinking parts of CT see some sun by 3-4 PM and then we see how much we can destabilize and watch to see if a line of showers and thunderstorms can materialize for the early evening

You can actually see what looks to be a subsidence zone too just NW of 84

boom

Was thinking the same thing but it looks like its starting to pick up speed a bit. Actually I'm more shocked about the track...kinda tough to tell but it seems to still have a more northerly component than easterly

If that stalls there is going to be some serious issues

Just saw someone riding a bike

Seems like rain has lightened up a bit here in Branford...but still coming down heavy (just goes to show how insane it was). visibility much better. I can actually see the restaurant sign that's some hundred feet away

Getting a nice band of gusty winds rotating through here.

woah...this makes Steve's pictures look like HD

Gotta watch for a few strong/severe thunderstorms late afternoon/early evening (probably more evening) with the cold front. Crushing rain...what a drive down 91. Actually just had a decent burst of wind here in Branford not long ago