weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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I think it depends. When the H7 low is more tightly closed off and consolidated I think this usually results in the deformation fairly close to the center...like 50-75 miles NW but when it's more elongated in nature the best deformation is significantly farther northwest (like 75-100 miles). Inflow should be phenomenal. -
Although I wonder if this is a situation where the initial bad (which will be the strongest) actually materializes much farther NW than what is being shown and then as the storm matures and the centers tighten, the band then collapse and traverses over much of the region then finally sitting and rotting (probably eastern sections) and during this transition a second more weaker band materializes like 75-miles or whatever west of the main band.
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Don't really like where the 700 low is developing and closing off.
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EWB. The best part of big snow events...is looking at omega values on buflit. This also shows there is going to be serious subsidence somewhere. Cross sections are going to display this super well
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Very poetic. I feel better already
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This pisses me off..any other day 12z GFS bufkit is out by now. ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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May see legit thunderstorms out on the Cape. Severe thunderstorms containing heavy snow
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dual-band signature very apparent here
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12-24''+ of snow > relationship
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I know it's early but I can wait to check out some 12z GFS bufkit profiles. Betting we see like -60 to -70 units of omega popping...hopefully well into the DGZ
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Agreed...and IIRC that was something that was overlooked heading into the storm. There was so much focus on what looked great that many flags were missed.
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Absolutely...that's pretty much a given I think. Some are going to get screwed compared to some around them.
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It's actually not uncommon to see two bands unfold in major storms like this. And they can be a forecast killer (in both directions) b/c you can get some serious subsidence between the two. In some cases the two bands will even consolidate and all hell just breaks lose under it
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The degree of dynamic cooling is jaw dropping on this. The distance between like +11C to +12C and -13C to -14C (talking 850 temps) is very small.
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Historic snowfall rates are probable if this verified.
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Looks like +11C or s at the core The moisture inflow into the CCB is going to be ridiculous
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Super close. May be pretty solid eastern CT. 700 pops just a bit too late for western/central CT to probably get into the CCB goods
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Faster timing/scenario is plausible at this time.
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I could see that happening. Seems like more times than not we see timing sped up as we get closer...especially with no block in place. You can see the NAM probably hedging in that direction.
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Not only a bit more west but also stronger (higher heights pushing slightly more north.
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Looks much better (favorable) with the ridging into the West and is slightly further west with the trough axis into the Gulf Coast. Would probably continue to see amplification too based on the jet. Still have a developing jet steak on the western side of the trough axis.
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Hopefully some of the recent changes in direction are not a product of starting to get better sampling (which would be not so good news) but the notable differences in the structures of just about everything...ridging in the West, evolution of the southern shortwave, the trough, and also the ULJ across the region is a bit concerning right now. We're not talking about subtle changes either.
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The differences in short-term between the NAM/GFS have been insane...and not just here but throughout the country. Finally there seems to be some agreement on that but even yesterday morning the NAM/GFS were worlds apart on that system. It's been that way with just about every weather system this winter across the country.
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both the shortwaves of interest are within the domain
