weatherwiz

Almost time for the new day 1!

Only if all these restrictions end the virus is pretty contained

Quarantined in New England. title for James new book!

Might see a high risk later in parts of IA/IL later actually kinda scary given Chicago is in this potential

yeah that's something I've been looking at. I was initially thinking that the greatest degree of overnight convection may actually be a bit farther north and east of where the greatest potential is, however, the past few runs of the HRRR seem to be a bit more aggressive with overnight convection down into IA and into IL. Since this does look like a later show tomorrow anyways I guess that gives some more time for atmospheric recovery...but this is a pretty insane setup. Dews in the mid-to-upper 60's under very steep lapse rates...this isn't uncommon but put these ingredients under those shear parameters...yikes.

My God...the 12z models tomorrow across parts of IA/IL are jaw dropping scary. High risk with 30% TOR hatched coming at 1730? Maybe even 45% hail

Yikes...could be scary around Chicago tomorrow

thanks for the info!

Would you like a lime to go with your Corona?

Great, thank you! That's what I figured for the majors...did not know that about Coops though.

Does anyone know what the time period used is for the Daily Climate Reports? Is it 12:00 AM- 11:59 PM local time?

Not really. It was stated greatest potential was NY/PA (which is where the severe reports were). And it was also stated some might move into southern VT/western MA/western CT and a few did (though no thunder or lightning I don’t think)

Holy crap...I just realized the GFS now goes into April!!! There are ZERO full months left in the model world until May

COld front pushing into an unseasonably warm and moist airmass combined with strong dynamics should yield (perhaps) multiple bands of showers and t'storms this afternoon. Given the strong dynamics (particularly a very strong llvl jet) the greatest risk will be damaging wind gusts. The greatest potential is across NY/PA, however, some activity may sneak into southern VT, western MA, and western CT before dying out.

Ryan should make a severe thread for tomorrow.

I agree...certainly can't discount it. But that's also a great point about the warm front and we also know how difficult it is to get warm fronts to blow through this region...hell, even if we can get the warm front to position overhead...that would prevent the llvl flow from veering. I also think storm motion tends to favor more in the way of wind potential than tornado potential...despite the helicity levels. Of course you can always get the embedded meso within the band but I think we see several small clusters develop and one or two may take on a bow structure and produce some wind damage

It's intriguing but I think the TOR potential is a bit overdone...I'm not sold on dews getting into the 60's and we'll need that to get sufficient 3km CAPE. I think the best potential is west

TOR's ripping through backyards tomorrow with debris covered by snow Monday?

There is actually some intriguing severe weather potential tomorrow...I think the best shot is more NY/PA into western MA...perhaps NW CT but if the NAM is right with those dewpoints there would be potential for a tornado...although winds seem to veer as the front approaches and core of the LLJ pushes away. I'm not totally sold on TD's getting > 60 but I could see a few bowing line segments with could produce damaging winds...won't take much to bring those winds down tomorrow.

Just saw that! Been off the past few days and haven't checked much weather...looks like a gusty low topped squall line!

Oh wow...well that doesn’t sound good. Hopefully it will be resolved at some point

That's going to be some blizzard in the Plains next week. Going to be quite the dynamic system. Actually too...very similar to the exact date last year in which there was a high impact system...widespread t'storms and severe wx in the south and the significant blizzard across CO/WY and central Plains. Large stretches of major highways closed for 2-3 days

SWEET!! I don't think I can make that happen this year but I think next year I'm going to schedule vacation earlier in the spring and catch the beginning dry line season.

Has anyone ever been to this part of TX? I wonder if that would be awesome chase territory...rather small population, outside of I'm guessing views of mountains in the distance it's gotta be pretty flat and there must be like no traffic. I feel like dry line chasing is the way to go...like forget the chaster convergence in the Plains.

NOAA has been having a TON of problems with their products since like the summer. The NWS hazards map, SPC outlooks, perhaps others too. UGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH @OceanStWx what's been going on???