Euro has been trash with tropical.
Anyways the pattern next week is rather intriguing. One thing we've noticed with the past few or several cold front passages is cold fronts aren't entirely progressing very far through the reigon...in fact, they've been getting held up nearby and we've seen waves of low pressure develop along them. GEFS shows a height configuration next week which would favor the same exact scenario with next week's FROPA
Now this isn't exactly being shown in the ENS mean due to smoothing but that trough dipping through southeast Canada into parts of the Northeast is not bad looking...and could certainly capture Elsa as it moves through the mid-Atlantic.
This might be a situation where the 500 look isn't striking at first glance for a hit but this isn't a storm that's riding the coast. In fact, given the potential track of Elsa you could argue this 500 look supports the capture potential.
Have to look back but I wonder if this configuration is similar to what brought the remnants of Katrina up this way. We had a pretty decent severe threat with that but were too capped in the end.