weatherwiz

May as well just start a damaging wind threat for Sunday at this juncture

Always is

This is going to be super, super close. This is going to end up becoming a pretty impressive storm but does everything happen in time? There is just so much moisture and upward motion. If we can even get things to time like 6-hours earlier which isn't farfetched. This is such a beautiful ULJ structure. Wish it would unfold to this like 100-miles west

Also watching that energy off the SW coast there...that has implications on that ridging into the Inter-mountain West. Conceivably, stronger ridging in the Inter-mountain West could influence a sharper trough/more digging and earlier

Based on Anthony's post you almost wonder if the 18z Euro got caught in the Buffalo wind

GFS just seems a bit flatter with the trough. but as stated...it's a definite improvement from before. I take that as a win

First call. Lots of positives here for sure! Could certainly trend in either direction but definitely loving the signals which are trending in a favorable direction

sometimes I don't get that option. I wonder if it happens on other browsers

Working on a snowfall map now...would wait until after 0z tonight but I'll be watching the Pats and probably a few beers deep. But general thinking is 2-4'' southern CT and 1-3'' rest of state. I could certainly see some 5'' potential is favorable trends continue

cod is pissing me off with these stupid "this site can't provide a secure connection errors" I love cod b/c it has a ton of different parameters and is the easiest to maneuver.

skimming through some soundings there is also a decent unstable layer in there around 850mb or so. could be a fun few hours under the band (for whoever gets in)

There would most likely be a narrow band of moderate-to-heavy band of snow given this look. Would probably pass along southern CT, RI, and far SE MA

Yup! I feel a bit better now Was looking at NAM when I thought I was looking at the HRRR I always love when the HRRR gets into range (even if it's at the 48-hour mark) b/c it can really be useful when spotting and assessing for trends.

FWIW as we're getting inside the 48-hour window but the 18z HRRR seems to be siding with a NAM-type ordeal EDIT: Scratch this...I had the NAM up not the HRRR

One of the first things I like to see when looking long-term/seasonal in the winter for us is whether the pattern looks wet or dry. If it looks wet...I don't care what temperature anomalies look like or what the averaged smoothed out pattern looks like. At our latitude, if we are above-average precip for the winter there's a good bet we're getting at least one great snow event.

This is precisely why this winter I am going to try hard and not get so invested in anything that is beyond 4 days out. The past few winters have been a dangling carrot in front of the horse. The pattern we just become established in is just too chaotic.

This system is going to be up in the air until probably the last minute. The ceiling for overperforming (somewhere) is pretty high. Having the baroclinic zone so far north (which all models are in general agreement on) is a nice to see. I don't know what the odds are for this to develop on the earlier side but this does have potential to get its act together in enough time to get a band of moderate snow to traverse CT, RI, and eastern MA. Going to be lots of moisture thrown into this system with favorable thermal profiles and great dynamics to work with. So the frame work is there.

Agreed

Nice blizzard for parts of the north-central Plains into the upper-Midwest end of the week into the weekend. Road trip???

There should be some solid ulvl divergence across much of the region which should aid in the expansion of the precipitation shield. Models do want to pop an 850 low is just a matter of how early that happens. But given the strong llvl jet dynamics there will be plenty of moisture being fed into the system. Decent lift into the DGZ (on the NAM using BDR) probably across at least southern areas. Even despite the perhaps marginal sfc temps it's quite cold aloft and the depth of the above-freezing layer is quite thin. Obviously this changes with north/south track but given the NAM a strip of 3-5'' is quite possible along southern sections.

The number of fall events the past 3-4 years have been the most intriguing. Perhaps with great assistance of dual-pol radar activity but the number of October/November tornadoes the past several years from NY/PA into our region has been pretty remarkable. Thankfully (and this is a trend nationally) they're all weak sauce

Just thinking about last night... I wonder if these pea-hail reports last night was actually grauple.

Monday looks quite decent for some severe weather potential. Low-topped squall line type stuff but that is alot of wind aloft and a nice surge of theta-e air with dewpoints climbing into the 50's potentially. There will actually be three mechanisms for wind damage potential here; 1) Presence of steep low-level lapse rates during the day 2) With a line of low topped convection ahead of the front 3) Very steep low-level lapse rates in association with CAA behind the front. But in the warm sector...those are some pretty impressive mid/upper level dynamics and of course very strong low-level jet. If we get dews into the 50's and can muster up enough low-level CAPE this will be a decent little event. It's like a lower-grade 12/1/06

dang it...wonder if I had hail. I heard pings but could have been pings within the Bruins game

AAM/mountain torgues are on my goal list of studying and learning more about over the coming months. I know some of their opinion of them and how much weight they truly hold but I believe understanding their current states and how they've behaved over the previous several weeks to few months can provide tremendous value. Forecasts of these states will only provide as much value as what forecast models are projecting but...when it comes to a changing pattern and a changing state (not just about a particular region but maybe a good part of a hemisphere)...if a change is say going to occur over the U.S. the change has to occur somewhere else first...so identifying where a change is set to occur and going from there is incredibly valuable. I also want to do more studying/assessment of the global pattern as a whole b/c after all everything is connected. Maybe a slight change in the Atlantic results in changes over Europe several days later which results in changes across Asia several days after that and then across the Pacific several days after that and then across the U.S. several days after that (so like a month after the initial change in the Atlantic). cold