weatherwiz

All the high CAPE stays in the Plains It's such torture watching it creep east on the models an then when it gets to the door of the Northeast...BOOM it retreats back. It's like being at a concert sitting in the front row and having Taylor Swift come at you then go back to the stage.

maybe the person measuring is high

The central Plains into the Missouri Valley could get quite active moving through next week...maybe into the Ohio Valley. Sometimes a good precursor to us!!!

I'm a bit skeptical about flipping straight to "warm" or "heat". Still quite a bit of a trough signal, even on the EPS from the Arctic down through eastern Canada into New England. The brunt of the warmth in that pattern looks to be just to our SW. I mean eventually it will start to get warmer as climo increases but not totally sold we get into big time (long lasting) just yet

Why did Kevin quote me and not say anything?

I've been trying to get a hold of the oral surgeon for like 3 months...left voice messages AND THEY NEVER CALL BACK

I mean Sunday doesn't look too terrible. GFS advertises some sort of potential around the 18th with that strong s/w ejection across the West. But as long as the pattern remains dominated by a West Ridge/East trough...going to be tough to get big events but given the time of year we are in all it takes is one weakness in the pattern or one good s/w to dice through the west and boom potential on the table

Really great point

don't pee on my leg and tell me it's raining

What I would really like to see is data going back say over the last 50 years showing the number of like 60+, 70+, 80+ days during the months of March, April, and May and see if there has been an increase in the number of days for these occurrences over the years (I think we know the answer to this but would be nice to see). it seems no matter hat transpires over the course of the month...at the end of it we end up above-average in terms of temperatures. We probably could have gotten a 2' blizzard April 17 and below-average temperatures for 4-days centered around that date...and the month would still finish AN. The thing is our warm days...seem to overperform and by several-pus degrees and of course we have nights where temperatures remain above-average (which this is what seems to be driving the AN times...warmer overnight lows as opposed to daytime highs). The only way we really hit climo is getting these below-average airmasses and we somehow still manage to spike to climo values.

Not debating that. There were a few days where we had cold airmasses where you would have expected temperatures to end up a bit warmer...there was one day (maybe in april) where even with full sun we struggled a bit.

We've actually seen a few times this spring these cold air masses winning out...you would expect stronger sun angle and mixing to compensate but that hasn't been the case. Think maybe we have just had trouble mixing in these situations?

you can't just use dewpoints alone to determine whether an airmass is dry...you gotta relate it to temperature. Dewpoints tomorrow look to be into the lower 40's...now if the temperatures were 60's...70's+ yeah it would be pretty damn dry but with temperatures into the 50's...it's not that dry...while there is some dewpoint depression there it's pretty moist in the llvls and mlvls. don't think there will be much virga tomorrow.

lots of dry air??? the column is pretty saturated across the region tomorrow

May even see some grauple tomorrow

There's going to be many places tomorrow which struggle to probably get out of the 40's

I think the majority of that is with that axis of rain/thunderstorms expected to move across PA/western NY later tonight. Tomorrow during the day we should see numerous showers pop with the steep lapse rates and residual llvl moisture around. Certainly not going to be any washouts or big rain totals but just lots of light showers...maybe even some orographic component which is kinda hinted at based on the structure of those amounts across our region.

There should be numerous showers around tomorrow...especially second half of the day.

I have been having this same exact problem too.

That might have been the same year (2013) there was that early morning tornado in NE MA on a Sunday and another round of severe weather in the afternoon...it was the day coming back from a conference.

I was always disappointed we didn't get severe weather at any of the conferences...although I think there was one year something happened...we were at least in a risk but I think everything went around us.

I miss the conferences down in Baltimore. I remember one conference it was still like 91 at 12:30 AM.

checking models for high CAPE in May is lots of fun hoping for convection that will be overdone Steep lapse rates arrive from the West giving the setups that are the best SPC risks of destructive winds, hail, and tornadoes say goodbye to all the tomatoes

Tuesday still looking downright chilly up north. Looks like snow showers possible too...who mentioned this the other day? @powderfreak

why is the site going slow?