weatherwiz

All the snow talk…it needs to go. It’s May alright…we’re into climatology severe season. This means that historically we have better chances for severe weather than snow. Ok…so it might snow at 2K…big fooking deal. It’s snow in the mountains of Hawaii. When there is a snow threat in valleys or down to the coast in May…then we can talk. It’s severe weather now. He many big snow events we’ve had in May? How many severe weather? Severe weather > Snow in May. ITS SEVERE SEASON DAMNIT

If a tree falls down in the forest and nobody’s around to hear it, did it really fall?

congrats!!!

DC about to get smacked with winds

that flows with the wind

Pretty intrigued with severe weather potential across southeast PA Tuesday. Looks like another EML plume may move overhead with the warm front lifting just north of the area yielding a very warm/moist and unstable airmass. Pretty decent shear aloft with shortwave energy approaching. May even be pretty close to triple point...you throw that in with EML air, decent shear, and warm/moist/unstable airmass...could be favorable for some supercells.

I think the biggest killer for us is it appears the front at the beginning of the week gets hung up nearby and multiple waves of low pressure develop along it...going to be tough to push the warm front north with that. This is why I'm heavily interested in SE PA...EML plume with PVA, warm sector, and triple point location...all the makings for some nasty supercells.

I really hate wind b/c it sucks walking in but this new hair styling product I've been using maybe the past few years...styling cream...is amazing. Hair withstands the shape in the wind!!!!

Let's weaken as many trees as possible today so when a big derecho blows through in July there isn't a tree left standing.

I hate lawns

Anyone know what's up with this site? Hasn't worked in a while

Tuesday could be a chase day across Pennsylvania but I am busy. Pretty nice EML with warm front nearby and good shear with approaching s/w. Heights look kinda neutral but could see a few warm front riders.

I wasn't referring to through now...meant more going through May and into June. Overall it has been a pretty nice spring...plenty of pleasant days mixed with some crap days. Consistency would be nice but that shouldn't be expected in early spring. But as we go through May and into June you would expect the pleasant days to become more consistent. And that brings to your point about last year...May going into June was pretty crappy (especially SNE) but we virtually went from that to 90's/humidity in a snap.

We're probably going to go from crap to toilet paper sticking weather and then never look back

yeah looks like we may get some showers in here during the afternoon at some point...actually looking a bit closer we may lose Sunday being nice for the most part. At least we push +14C to +15C at 925 and +8C at 850 so we definitely will get into the 60's and if we can get sun early on a few spots should get into the lower 70's.

May showers bring June severe

what do you think of coastal low potential end of next week?

Sunday looks like it could be fairly warm..at least down this way

The past 3-days was really a combination of synoptic/convective. The showers Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning was warm front driven (synoptic lift) while the area of showers/thunder which approached later Wednesday was a combination of convective processes and synoptic lift from the warm front which was still positioned nearby...but this was definitely more convectively driven as the bulk occurred during the daylight hours with weakening through the evening. Yesterday was pretty synoptically dominant.

Well looks like there will be plenty of chances for some showers and heavier downpours the first week of May. Both Euro/GFS even hinting at a coastal low developing...maybe even some flakes up north. Still kinda intrigued for some severe potential but looks like best threat probably across PA into maybe parts of NJ or just south.

ahhh this is it...I thought I saw something where he defined what he was talking about...can I stand corrected for standing corrected?

hmmm actually I think I stand corrected...the model maps posted were valid through Friday/Saturday and the discussion went from there.

That was about WEDNESDAY...not Thursday. Kevin absolutely said nothing about today being convective. People need to go back and re-read the exchange and convo about that...it's 10000% obvious he was talking about Wednesday.

Kevin said Wednesday being convective...he wasn't talking about today

Too be fair I think Kevin was only referring to Wednesday in terms of convection...not today/tonight