weatherwiz

taken just prior to the blizzard of 1888

what's more productive than cracking open beer?

11 days!!!

The GFS now gets into severe season!!!

eh those hourly things are kinda crap

I think there are hundreds or even thousands of different strains but the ones you hear most commonly about are the ones which are said to more more contagious and in the case of the Brazilian variant, more deadly. But this is why you get some who test positive but never display symptoms b/c they likely had a strain that just wasn't potent...and this lead to the questions about whether those who are asymptomatic can be spreader or not. The virus can mutate all it wants...so long as any of the mutations that develop aren't more contagious or deadly and the ones that are more commonly discussed about are ones that fit these profiles. There is actually also a New York variant which is believed to be the #1 spreader here in CT.

Per the IHME model (which I was a little skeptical of last summer but it's actually been quite solid overall) we probably won't drop below 500 deaths a day for perhaps another month. Projections are for them to remain steady or slightly increase moving into the first week of May. The model has been wavering back and forth with the <500 threshold but I think that is mostly due to some of the new variants. I can see an increase over the next few weeks b/c overall serious/critical cases have risen over the past few weeks. Also per the model, daily infections should really start plummeting moving through the final weeks of April

There is so much that raises questions. I guess though from what I have gathered through readings is some of the newer more dominant strains are having a greater impact on the younger crowd than original strains. Also have to consider that for a large while not having in-person schooling and places where those in that age group tend to hang out (bars, clubs, etc) probably helped to limit the spread from that group. I always thought this for vacinations...take care of the 65+ crowd and essential workers first then go to the 18-30 crowd because (I thought) it would be pretty obvious that group would be responsible for spreading.

This is certainly true...but to an extent. At some point the case numbers should also vastly begin to taper off. For example, here in Connecticut I think we've been hovering between like 800-1,000 cases per day...but given our rate of vaccinations and percent of adult population being vaccinated at some point these numbers should tail off. After hovering between 3-5% daily positivity rate for the past 2-3 weeks we've been under 3% (and close to 2%) since the end of last week. Obviously positivity rate means more than case numbers but at some point case numbers should rapidly fall off. But according to Governor Lamont, the majority of cases were coming from the 18-30 crowd but now that vaccinations have been opened up for this group I am hoping over the next few weeks positivity rate should drop to around 1.5% and case numbers should drop by several-plus hundred.

I have never been tested either. Really haven't had a reason too. The only time I was exposed to someone who ended up getting sick was the weekend before St. Patty's Day last year. And this was when they were only testing specific people. I wonder too how many people get tested to frequently. I also wonder if it's possible some of these numbers are being driven by "repeat positive testers". For example, there are probably some people who if test positive today probably are so paranoid they get tested everyday until they test negative. Of course there are some who need negative tests say for work or whatever. I would hope the data "weeds" this out but I'm a bit skeptical on this.

I'm sure the league would like to get as close to 100% as possible moving through the playoffs just for revenue. Playoffs start in another month and I think the Stanley Cup finals round is in August so there is some potential I think for 100% capacity by then. I haven't heard anything though on upping the capacity levels (in Mass). I think the Hartford Yard Goats can do full capacity May 19

I wonder what the odds are of the Red Sox or Bruins going to full capacity. Would be awesome to see full capacity for playoff hockey (or at least the Stanley Cup finals). I wonder if the NHL is still considering a playoff bubble

I am pumped! Bars and clubs are going to be so much fun.

You really can't. What I think is going to happen is (we) the people are essentially just going to end the masks. I think as we go through the next 1-2 months you're just going to see people wearing them less and less. While I'm sure there will be business who require them if less and less people wear them are businesses really going to turn people away? But I'm thinking by Memorial Day we'll see the mask mandate go bye-bye. My original thinking was maybe 4th of July but I think it will be much earlier.

A nice little "pre-game" before severe weather season kicks in but looks like we'll see a low topped squall line move across much of southern New England late Wednesday afternoon and early evening. While the greatest threat for damaging wind gusts likely exists to our west (across NY and northern PA) the potential will exist for much of the region for localized embedded damaging wind gusts and perhaps even some small hail. Instability is not the driver in this event as instability will be quite marginal with temperatures only into the 60's and dewpoints in the 40's to 50's, however, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates aloft results in modest instability (500 - 750 J/KG of MLCAPE). The driver here is strong forcing from the approaching cold front and very strong jet dynamics characterized by 50-60+ knots at 500mb and 35-40+ knots at 850mb. Fairly steep low-level lapse rates, low-level dry air, and strong LLJ will also favor embedded damaging wind gusts, likely on the leading edge of the line. With steep mid-level lapse rates and cold air aloft, small hail is also possible.

For those that use bufkit has anyone ever had this problem? The slide bar to adjust time is gone...also the slide bar in the overview section is gone. Some setting must have gotten unchecked but I can find anything. I know you can use your computer arrows to adjust time but that doesn't work in the overview window

well at least you would have had something to measure the snow

Holy shit is it windy. Got to Windsor locks to get gas...FOOK. Saw the flag blowing like crazy. It’s freaking cold too. My credit card got stuck in the gas machine and it was miserable...being pelted by wind driven rain...I was being bent over like a small tree. Finally my card came back to me so I went to another pump...STEPPED in a puddle and fook the wind

BDL is pretty sick to go to. Even UCONN hospital in Farmington is really good but that mostly looks north and east...and speaking of that Rockledge Golf Course in West Hartford which actually looks over UCONN hospital. Also next to North Branford PD...very nice open field which looks west.

Thankfully there isn't a whole lot of cold air around

It's going on 10-years

13 days later BIG severe weather outbreak..and a few others followed in june

CAPE After Dark

Maybe he can join James in writing a book

Wouldn't be surprised to see accumulating snow potential across parts of northern New England mid-week.