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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    it didn't really materialize as it looked a few days ago...very weak/non-existent
  2. weatherwiz
    Trying to bang out as much work as possible. The CAMs are still a bit all over the place but they do agree that there definitely will be scattered convection...and of course greatest coverage across NY/PA into VT. Still a question as to whether we see any discrete storms ahead of the broken line which is where some of the divergence occurs. The environment still looks pretty favorable...just a matter of being able to utilize it
  3. weatherwiz

    RIP James

    weatherwiz replied to dendrite's topic in New England

    WTF...holy crap. He was such a great guy with tremendous passion. RIP James
  4. weatherwiz
    Greatest potential tomorrow looks to exist across Warren, Saratoga, and Washington Counties in NY into Addison and Rutland Counties in Vermont. I think there could be a small area of enhanced risk for this area.
  5. weatherwiz
    "Thank you temperatures and dewpoints" for the 1000-1500 SBCAPE values...though SBCAPE should probably be between 1500-2500. they may have meant to say MLCAPE between 1000-1500
  6. weatherwiz
    where do you get the HREF beyond 24-hours? edit: the TOR/WIND/HAIL probs only go to 24-hours.
  7. weatherwiz
    that's a damn well written discussion!
  8. weatherwiz
    I understand they need to build the farm and getting such a pitcher would just require too many assets. But...maybe he can find an "under the radar" pitcher who he thinks can thrive in Boston and get them on the cheaper side.
  9. weatherwiz
    Agreed! Pretty impressive sfc trough actually off to our West. That will definitely be the focus point for more scattered-t-numerous convection. There is a bit of a cap farther east up around 10-15K but alot of the shear and instability is below that anyways. I do like the signal for some discrete stuff late afternoon out this way.
  10. weatherwiz
    Overall that was a pretty different set up.
  11. weatherwiz
    Pretty impressive environment and CAMs are showing convection around that environment at the time...which would likely be discrete too given the greater forcing still pretty far west.
  12. weatherwiz
    NAM hodo at BDL 7 PM tomorrow
  13. weatherwiz
    @dendrite pin this otherwise this will bust and we won't get severe
  14. weatherwiz
    there really is a pretty impressive overlap of 3km CAPE/0-1km helicity (and 0-3km helicity) from like east-central Mass through CT late afternoon. Pretty long hodographs too
  15. weatherwiz
    It is very intriguing. Looks like that alludes to what I mentioned earlier regarding theta-e ridge that becomes established across northeast MA through western/central CT. This is a bit east then what SPC mentions but it's something to watch.
  16. weatherwiz
    agreed...especially based off his comments (but I always take what GM's say with a grain of salt )
  17. weatherwiz
    The pattern wants to throw EML's at s over the next few weeks but I think the jet structure/placement is killing us. The jet looks to get shot pretty far northward so the EML plumes riding along the southern edge of the jet move into Canada. and going back to the May thread...there are also emerging signals for things to turn very warm to hot rather quickly after this miserable weekend. 582dm heights trying to poke into our region second half of next week
  18. weatherwiz
    The more I look at this the more I become intrigued across central MA and more specifically around ORH County. Actually a pretty good overlap there of strong llvl CAPE and shear.
  19. weatherwiz
    Kind of a good thing in this setup not to be overpowering with lift/forcing. Should help to keep activity more discrete but I'm sure we'll see a cluster or two evolve and that's where any enhanced would be possible.
  20. weatherwiz
    I don't think we see a moderate risk with this...I don't think the aerial coverage will be great enough and would like to see stronger instability and a bit stronger shear. It is possible to see an area of enhanced added if enough confidences increases in a narrow swath for enhanced wind damage potential.
  21. weatherwiz
    NAM NEST has a long-tracked superell from E NY to the NH coast
  22. weatherwiz
    Now is the time to make a trade...don't wait until July. I know Sale is slated to come back hopefully maybe around or just after the All Star break but I would really like another big arm...whether it be a SP or RP.
  23. weatherwiz
    There is certainly room for the first week of June to be quite warm. There are no strong signals which really making glaring which direction we will go but it's going to be a battle of being influenced by western ATL low and ridging to our west...but you have a huge dome of +15C to +16C 850 temps well into the OV and TN Valley and it won't take much to get these into our region. the first few days look quite cool but we could warm up very quickly and probably even see some humidity too
  24. weatherwiz
    There looks to be a window of opportunity from northeast MA into northern CT perhaps for some rapid growing convection late afternoon right along what appears to be a theta-e ridge/higher instability axis.
  25. weatherwiz
    Could see a tornado or two across upstate NY into northern New England
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