weatherwiz

Watching the CC ring collapse tonight will be fun.

GFS bufkit at BDL...wow. It's quite dry above the DGZ but looks pretty saturated in there with RH overlaid

some parts of the hills could get 3-6'' if this is correct...which I mean seems to becoming more plausible.

wow GFS even a bit interesting in northern CT for a few inches. CCB gets pretty close to grazing into BDL

o many weakened limbs and trees from the recent stretch of high winds the past year...when we crank up severe season in another month going to be seeing lots of damage this summer. If this is a summer we finally get a derecho...there may not be any trees left come September

Not sure what to make of it. I don't think it would be anything impressive but enough to just keep things going a bit longer. Maybe add another inch or two for the higher elevations.

I wonder if there is a window for a second short-lived extremely narrow band to develop tomorrow night (like between 3z-9z period) from like ORH down into northeast CT. Really tight window b/c occlusion has well occurred by this time and we're fighting the intrusion of dry air but the NAM does show a second pretty decent area of fronto develop during this time.

you might get smoked if the NAM verifies. Really tightens up H7 just off to your east with a pretty impressive fronto band just west of it...which happens to look to be from like ORH to you

yeah looks like a quite a bit of dry air wraps around the western side of this thing as it really starts to crank. but the NAM really isn't budging from the idea of accumulating snow even into some of the valley areas.

18z NAM looks slightly more amplified through 24

southern VT through the Berkshires into NW CT going to get absolutely smoked.

GFS even trying to pop a severe threat April 27/28 across parts of NY/PA!!!!! Of course too the day I'm scheduled for my second shot so probably can't chase ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Would suspect NW CT gets nailed on the GFS...wow

ahhh yeah that might have been February. I guess we just have to ask ourselves, what needs to happen for the shortwave to become elongated like that and what needs to happen to drop the ULL to close off either over or south of Long Island? but speaking of that event I think we were dealing with a SLP which was more elongated and never became tightly wrapped...this situation it looks like that happens. While the 12z run is still just south of our area with the SLP (which is a good thing when you consider the likelihood of this system becoming vertically stacked) the 12z run of the NAM isn't as closed off the H5 as some of the previous runs...it keeps it a bit more elongated. Some of the previous runs popped a tight contour just south of Long Island. Given the high baroclinicity that is going to be in place it really won't take much adjustment south for the SLP to really explode. Is that likely? Probably not but given the potential that would unfold should that happen...it shouldn't be totally written off, even if the percent probability is like 3

While I would love to see a few to several inches outside of the hills (and not totally ruling it out yet) I do think it's going to be quite difficult unless it can rip for a good period of time...I do at least think there is room for most to see rain to flip to snow with some bursts of heavier snow but accumulations will be tough...especially given how crappy the ratios should be.

Here is IJD...not too terrible looking

This kinda of reminds me of a setup that I think was kinda similar and not really that long ago...maybe March? The NAM was pretty insistent that H5 would drop to our south while the globals were like right over us...ultimately the globals won. I guess we just need some reason to believe that H5 will become more elongated and pop to our south. I think at least the NW hills could get pounded pretty good. Majority of us still probably see some wintry precip given how cold low-levels are.

the NAM is not budging...kinda would have thought it would maybe head in the other direction with this run but nope. If GFS inches closer to the NAM with the 12z run (which the past few GFS/euro runs have) well...this is quite interesting. The challenge is conveying this lol

Then a month later we had a severe weather outbreak!!! I wonder if there is a correlation between late-season winter weather and increased potential for severe weather in the early spring. Obviously not much of a sample size to work with but it kind of would make sense. We know our biggest severe weather events and outbreaks are typically associated with EML's (which the same can generally be said for other regions too). So what we want to keep in mind here is as we move through the spring and the desert Southwest region beings to warm the foundation has begun for how EML's develop and originate. For us to get these late season winter threats we obviously need some type of trough with sufficient cold air nearby and this trough can either correspond to a ridge across the West or more of an omega type pattern where you have trough-ridge-trough...I think it's this omega pattern which increases focus because understanding EML advection you want some type of trough in the west...but you also want a ridge sort of centered in the heart of the country with a trough in the east...eventually if that trough in the east sort of lifts...we introduce ridging here in the East...since EML's tend to propagate across the edge of the ridge (or the westerlies) this change in the pattern would favor EML advection into our region...and since you had that initial ridge over the center of the country you lessen the likelihood for the EML air to be compromised.

why can't the euro even be like 50 miles farther south. But this seems pretty crazy...534dm 500mb heights overhead...lowest heights in North America over our region

The Weather Channel in one of their recent tweets said sun angle will limit snow totals...but isn't the majority of QPF falling as snow during the overnight and early Friday morning before occlusion just shuts things down?

That is one strong Arctic cold front next week

gotcha...I see exactly what you're saying. The CCB in this scenario would be monstrous...that influx of moisture into that type of llvl cold. so hoping this pans out

Just curious b/c when looking at the 18z NAM I noticed how stretched and elongated H5 was...and was wondering where it would close...but then seeing the NAM close off at 850 south of LI then 700 you knew...but...my question is why does a stretched out look enhance thermal conveyor?

If you were to write a book about how to get pummeled in CT with snow...this would be the example lol