weatherwiz

that supports an upgrade to high

agreed.

Yeah definitely couldn't rule out a farther expansion of that area...especially if you want to consider the damaging wind aspect...I sorta focused more on tornado probs but if I were to include winds it would have been much bigger

If we see an upgrade to high risk b/c of tornado probs this is the area I'm thinking. Latest guidance really hammering in on this area

Much cleaner look for sure.

I wouldn't sleep on southern MO either...wouldn't be shocked to see probs expanded farther north...maybe ENH into southern MO

12z sounding out of DFW...yikes

Yeah this is something to definitely watch and I think hi-res models are starting to hint more and more at this possibility. Given the environment you would think outflow from the QLCS could be vigorous enough to produce updrafts out ahead of it. I think there are two windows here for tornadic supercells...initially (or early on in the game) and then again moving into the overnight...especially with the nocturnal increase in the LLJ...this coincides with another burst of instability (due to increasing llvl theta-e). Could be a long night from SE TX into LA and perhaps even as far north as AR (in terms of tornadoes).

Moderate risk to be expanded farther east with the new outlook. Seems like there is pretty good agreement across guidance that the greatest overall tornado threat may be across southeast OK into northeast TX...though I still would watch out across southeastern TX...I'm not totally sold either that there isn't more discrete than what is currently shown...there are some hints at it but nothing glaring. The damaging wind threat though is looking pretty legit.

Can also throw in the fact that the greatest tornado potential also extends into the overnight hours

This is in SE TX right around when the NAM peaks the STP. Most striking thing is seeing MLCAPE values just under 2000 J/KG. Also it's pretty backed in the lowest km.

I'm sure too the overall environment would certainly play a factor too? For example, there is going to be extremely favorable ingredients in the lowest 3 and especially 1 km's...plenty of directional shear, pretty low LCL's, and more than sufficient instability...should see plenty of sfc vorticity juxtaposed with ample 3km CAPE

This continues to look scarier and scarier...especially when you consider the best ingredients lining up at night. NAM showing a rather large area too of 1500+ MLCAPE...quite alarming given the other parameters in place. Forcing and s/w support not lacking either

I think this is looking rather concerned across eastern TX into LA. That's a pretty significant EML advecting in from the Mexican Plateau characterized by mlvl lapse rates which may be in excess of 8.5-9 C/KM...typically I would be concerned about extremely strong capping, however, not with this forcing present. What this CAN, however, result in is a "less messy" warm sector with stronger heating than modeled...when you're talking about mlvl lapse rates that steep with sfc dews ~70...CAPE can become significant...1500-2000 J/KG of MLCAPE is very possible. bufkit soundings (IAH) also indicating > 500 J of 6km CAPE with > 45 m/s of shear...yikes. Obviously shear orientation will result in a mixed storm mode, but we could be looking at a long-lived QLCS (I saw derecho mentioned and certainly can't disagree) with embedded tornadoes (perhaps a significant one) along with discrete supercells (especially Friday afternoon into early overnight) capable of tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes. There may also be some pretty large hail too...

Holy crap

That is going to pass extremely close to Alexandria International airport (AEX) I have their METAR up and trying to find airport web cams!!!!

Do you know of any place where you can access any airport web cam???? Need one QUICK

with totals? I have always thought that they handled well such aspects as where the max totals will be and hinting at what the upper range of totals may be

yup...not only are they garbage to begin with but add p-type issues into the picture and they become worse than garbage. Only thing perhaps realistic about that is the potential max area That should have always been a player on the table...scenarios like that are not uncommon in these setups

Given the Euro joining the train this afternoon I think we see winter storm warnings fly. Going to be a nice strip of 4-8''

There is a purpose to this thread...want to start collecting information, thoughts, and ideas for bigger events which can be a tool for research purposes down the road. An extremely unseasonably conducive environment for severe weather (including tornadoes and strong tornadoes) exists across the Gulf coast states. A somewhat uncommon winter-time elevated-mixed layer has advected into the region from the Mexican plateau and is characterized by mlvl lapse rates on order of ~7.5 C/KM. Below the EML exists an extremely moist airmass with sfc dews in the 60's and 70's. This is contributing to MLCAPE values on order of 1500 J/KG with 3km CAPE values greater than 125 J/KG. Couple with with 50+ knots of vertical shear and effective helicity > 300 m2s2 and this is the result... A large and destructive tornado is currently on the ground over Leander, LA. This has been a long-tracked tornado and given the environment may be on the ground for quite a while.

Even looks like the coast could see 2-3'' on the euro...nice.

Can we do a severe wx thread in this subforum that's dedicated to severe wx outside of New England? Would be good practice for when our season heats up

For tomorrow...Some of those areas will likely be without power for a while

Taking a quick look at the south... 1500+ MLCAPE, 150 3km CAPE, all under 300+ effective helicity and 50+ knots 0-6km shear. uh-oh