weatherwiz

I certainly may end up beating myself up with this. I mean you know me...I'm usually one to be on the conservative side and I have a huge obsession with H7 RH and track. Why I elected to be so aggressive here...well I had reasons which I thought would outweigh here but just knowing how these work, probably won't happen.

I do too...I think overall the output will be similar to that of the Dec storm...pretty much the majority of the state gets around a foot. And if lucky...some much more

The H7 closing off so early and actually becoming pretty tightly compact (is that even the proper term for it lol) seems to ingest alot of dry air ahead of it and while we do try to recover it might not be enough. Just another ughhhhhhhh here lol.

yeah I think the look on the GFS is actually pretty good for us here in CT. Could even argue it's better than the NAM

18z NAM bufkit for BDL and Waterbury does look solid. For Waterbury, it actually looks to show a good 8-hour window of 1''/HR with 3-4 HR of 2''/HR with ratios about 15:1 to maybe 18:1

yeah the H7 evolution is certainly not ideal for a HECS. It's such a bizarre evolution. I almost wonder if the NAM is correct with it...it just gets so jumpy with it.

The H7 evolution is really pissing me off. The system becomes vertically stacked by early afternoon with H7 placement PERFECT for us...totally perfect. But then H7 becomes more elongated and doesn't even appear to be vertically stacked anymore. If you look at Monday evening and down to H85...that is another area of perfection to us...this is why I am wondering if we can see some sort of llvl fronto band...obviously the goods wouldn't be great but we could still snow and accumulate. But...you look at H7 and we have a mess of dry air aloft with H7 trying to become a bit more compact and closed off to our west (not good). If H7 just slide to our south and east....ughhhhhhhhhhh

totally agreed...there is definitely going to be surprises...good surprises and bad ones lol. Hopefully we are on the good side

At least for my forecast, I hope I'm not QPF hugging too much here. It's great seeing these QPF outputs (which I obviously weighed heavily on) but damn...I think there's quite a bit to be nervous about for even getting widespread 12'' plus here. It really is just going to depend on how long we are getting maximized rates. But this is IJD (and this is very similar throughout CT) but look at how rapidly drier air starts getting down into where the DGZ would be. I'm nervous the thump is going to be very quick

If I remember correctly though that was largely due to the band pivoting back west and stalling for a while. I think the occlusion was slower to occur too so we kept the moisture advection into the storm. If H7 was to slide south and east and then take a more northeast turn as opposed to what the models are doing with it now...that type of scenario (I think) would be very likely and we would see widespread 18-24 across the state with some 30'' totals

It takes very little rising motion to get the sinking motion with the clothes

Someone in NW NJ might be able to pull off 30'' I think

Scott uses meteorology not modelology

Agreed. This is going to be super close...just wish the whole H7 evolution was a bit better...but regardless this is going to be a very good hit for all...just like December.

One thing I'm afraid of for SW CT is that fronto moves through awfully fast and there is some serious subsidence behind that. I was really banking on like a 4-5 hour period where we could see rates 2-3'' per hour but might be more like 2-3. But I am curious about something...there is a surge of llvl fronto which re-develops during the evening and perhaps influenced by the dry slot...I wonder if a llvl fronto band can re-emerge across SW CT.

It was a joke

The only reasons why I'm doing so is; 1) I think snow ratios easily approach 15:1 - 18:1 during the height...could even argue as high as 20:1 2) QPF...these are juicy numbers 3) Looking at max omega within the DGZ...certainly enough to result in 2-3'' per hour rates and I would think those happen for a good 4-6 hours. The non-pivot factor is a flag but I think what I mentioned above should outweigh that

do you take requests? (and do you know how to play any Taylor Swift songs) on the accordion? That would be sick

This is getting even more and more exciting!! Just did an update to my forecast. I hate to go so high given the band doesn't seem to pivot but I think when accounting for the ratios (which I think could be 15:1 - 18:1 during height) and QPF being forecast...these higher end totals are doable. I do have the concerns in the CT River Valley but didn't incorporate that onto the map but did so in discussion mentioning totals maybe closer to 12''.

I was just woken up my a mouse jumping up on my bed and I don’t know what to do I wont be able to go back to bed and it’s still too early

oof that is a mean dry punch that materializes on the GFS...looks like it's the culprit into quickly shutting down the band? Thought it was occlusion but on second look don't think it's occlusion

probably moreso Monday...maybe first flakes fly early Mon AM.

Perhaps not likely, but can't totally discount that just yet.

Well too Steve's point here...if we are talking 1.25'' to 2'' QPF (assuming ratios will be pretty decent) we're probably talking in the ballpark of 18-24''. (Obviously assuming the majority of that, if not, all is snow.

yeah go figure...not this first time this has happened either. I was actually shocked when I started taking a deeper dive into the thermals near the sfc...my initial guess from everything was this would be a pretty cold storm but not the case.