weatherwiz

That is beautiful looking!

If we don't start getting any snow soon...oof. So much edginess and tension. I gotta say...the mods in this subforum do a pretty damn good job. It's not easy for them given the volume and traffic that goes on here. They also are extremely lenient with letting things slide and with alot of the OT stuff. The issue isn't with the moderators and censorship" the issues lies in the fact that you have adults (who are supposedly quite educated) who can't act like adults and have to resort to childish behavior. There is very little in the way of expecting other's opinions with name calling being resorted to. I'm sure they are just as upset about not allowing some of the talk (particularly with COVID) but some just can't act civil.

At least severe season is right around the corner.

Do you happen to know when the SSW became official? I'm guessing this was too early for it to really have an influence but the AO took a sharp plunge right around Christmas time...I think this is really before the SSW was taking shape, no? Heck...maybe this SSW event really only caused a disruption of the SPV and there was very little coupling between the stratosphere-troposphere? Heck, maybe the way the northern hemisphere was configured prior to the SSW vastly enhanced the screw job we've endured...seems like the SSW/pre-pattern has been much more favorable on the other side of the hemisphere

I'm kinda glad the mega block is breaking down. They can certainly help us but they can also royally screw us. You almost need to have an active pattern with hits right when the mega block develops and you can just kinda ride that train (like we have with some of the mega blocks in the past) but if you end up with a major block and it's not producing right away...chances are it won't. Like Ray said just below your post...we can certainly ride with what is being projected.

I'd just hate to be the bad guy when Ant is about to arrest someone at the same time he views the weeklies which show an all out torch

So per the CDC the UK variant could be the dominant strain in the US by March leading to a spike of cases in the spring. Lovely...we'll never get out of this.

you're like the person who shows up to the party with 100 pong balls hours after someone already bought some

It looks like the NAO block progresses in a favorable trend for us with the block becoming a bit more West-based. Also looks like the NAO may head towards a more positive state (or less negative around the 25/26) which isn't necessarily a bad thing...especially with a prospective storm around. Looks like the flow may relax a bit too which could open some room for amplification

ohhhh I gotcha...I vaguely remember that from my astronomy class I took.

WTF is SZGYGYGYG

Tug hill going to get smoked

The model-to-model consistency regarding the evolution of the energy is pretty strong so that certainly yields confidence that it is real. It's just some drastic differences regarding placement which as has just been mentioned will have a big impact for the clipper

Could that be more euro bias? But it's a pretty solid looking rex block and that high to the north there is looking pretty strong so there really isn't much wiggle room for the low to move. I think too if the s/w was actually going to continue to strengthen it may have a better shot at ejecting, but looks like it reaches maturity very quickly and then rapidly weakens.

The energy may never even eject...might eject and then like shear out.

It has been cold...I mean it's winter so no matter what it's cold. If it's under 75...it's cold

no...unless that mid-month talk is now becoming late-month. Pretty soon it will be pushed into April

there was a sizable LES event I think end of Feb or early March last year

That's the tweet I was talking about! Didn't even realize it came from BOX

Not sure I'd use "cold" to describe the pattern. It's more like moderated junk or just meh. Outside of some brief cold shots there doesn't look to be any true cold and certainly nothing sustaining.

"I was relaxing in my hammock at my newly purchased home on the Tug hill Plateau. All of a sudden the sky became filled with a blanket of white and dry clouds. Boom, it was puking snow like I had never seen. Before I could escape the hammock the snow was up to my knees. I ran inside to my computer, threw up the GFS, and saw this monster shortwave traversing Lake Eerie. Lake Eerie was NOT frozen, the delta T was through the roof. This lake was giving this monster shortwave a great meal of moisture and it was dumping it's load on me".

I'm pretty certain it is a thing. I think though it goes unnoticed because our greatest moisture sources are obviously the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, but in situations where you get a system traversing over one of the Great Lakes...it could certainly supply it with a "moisture boost".

Streaming right into my fanny I think though the s/w or low has to like directly pass over one of the Lakes, no? I remember we had a few clippers that went over the Lakes perfectly and it aided quite a bit in moisture availability. There was one...I think late 2000's I think this was a huge factor and we ended up getting smoked. I hope so for your sake! But I think I actually saw a tweet last night...the percentage of lakes frozen over (Great Lakes) and snow depth across the country is very abnormally low. The snow depth map was putrid.

I wonder if the Lakes not being frozen over could play into our favor for the 20th...especially if the energy does amplify a bit more.

Yes...true...it really is the Euro and others that have a tendency to hold energy back in the SW too long.