weatherwiz

This is some of the strongest fronto I think I've seen on a forecast model: If you analyze further you can easily see as well why the best chance for snow would be on the east side as opposed to the west side.

Thank you. I think using gif option's where available will be the best way to go moving forward to really understand things and learn more. This displays it beautifully. Gotcha...this helps. Great explanation.

See...this is where I am a bit weak in analysis. Well...I get the southeast shift has little to do with the shallow edge of dry air at 850... but what about the differences in the s/w relate to a farther southeast shift in precip. This is what I struggle to deal with visually on models.

At least there is no virga when tracking severe

In a situation like this though, how important is that s/w? Too me, I don't think it is overly important (referring to that OV s/w)...that s/w lags the cold front quite a bit and it's this front (and associated frontal energy) as it pushes through which just yields a different atmospheric state (going from buoyant to subsident). Even if that s/w didn't really get absorbed and maybe the jet feature/speed was more favorable...would it do anything to help? If there was stronger moisture advection which could shoot in with some WAA as we lose the influence of the front...maybe it would be different?

I feel like there are people who just browse social media 24/7 and stalk either local news stations or NWS and troll. My roommate from school works on TV in Bangor, ME and the comments he gets are ridiculous. One viewer was claiming she measured like 26'' of snow in the last storm and was upset b/c when he mentioned a range of totals that fell on air her total wasn't in the range lol

What I've learned from here over the years is that the best method/approach to forecasting is to account for everything...especially flags. When flags start to arise, that's when you need to pump the brakes and start asking yourself questions in your head...questions such as "how does this alter the potential outcome" or "what does this offset". What I then do is try and paint a visualization in my head of how everything will look as the event is unfolding (especially regarding radar). This does burn me often b/c I will be conservative more times than not, however, I have learned that there are some things I may place too much emphasis in or that my understanding of what I was interpreting was just flat out wrong. One example of this is RH in the DGZ. For some reason I was using 90+% as a threshold, however, upon reading up, I was way too high...threshold seems to be more in the 80-85% range...so when I would see less than 90% I would think it was too dry for good snowgrowth and I would underforecast. I also suck at not necessarily analyzing charts like 500 vorticity, but I really suck at understanding how the pieces work together and how subtle changes in placement, structure, track influence everything at the surface. This BURNED me last year...remember the weekend where we had a storm Friday and sunday or Monday...I completely played up the Friday one and and downplayed the second one...we got little Friday and slammed Sunday. That certainly presents a major challenge for you...and everyone else really. It has to be tough when forecasting along the boundaries of CWA's in questionable situations...you think 1-2'' but just across the border they're going like 4-6''...huge difference and that does the public no good. People really thought you were ignoring southern NH...lol

Thanks but it's not over yet haha. If the Pats can come back from down 28-3...anything can happen lol.

I wonder if you can forecast negative snow...since we measure snow that reaches the ground (a positive value) what about snow that evaporates before reaching the ground...or gets caught in the updrafts?..it's not falling to the ground...it's rising farther from the ground.

What's funny is there is a chance perhaps CT coast sees more than inland

One in winter and one in summer I think is fine. The problem with the winter one is it is done on a Monday and in Boston. Living in CT, by the time we get out of work and into Boston...it would be time to come home. I like a spring/summer one b/c the weather is so much nicer and it's more enjoyable...Funky's I think had doors open and throughout the history of these things the spring/summer ones always seem to have higher turnouts...though there was an early winter one that did very well once or twice.

Ugly

Love it Should have put the lol emoji over Tolland

Easiest map to do LOL

I may have to lower

I'd bet on this over the deal

you see this fronto and it's so difficult not to envision two lines of ripping snow...but it's just so ehhh in the llvls

I will say this...there is a better chance of a widespread 3-6'' than Cole getting 9 years/$300+ million

Agreed...the discussion is what makes the board work. It's great to be able to read other's thoughts and reasoning's behind the forecast...it's how we all learn. After I create a forecast I like to read other's thoughts...you never know if perhaps if you overlooked something, missed something..may be placing too much/little emphasis. This field is driven by collaboration and sharing wealth of knowledge.

Oh sweet thanks! I never went into that section of city charts...just did so via the drop down menu in the model animator

Kraft does not approve

Really? I'll have to check it out. I loved the model animator before that upgrade...someone should be smacked for designing that

where the heck do you go on the site to get those?

That's sick!!! I'll have to start going there again. I used to like the page but since they did that face lift a few years ago I think it's been horrific...navigating between products and models and so forth...awful