weatherwiz

Continued to be not very impressed for us here in CT...minimal, if any accumulations and by minimal I mean a dusting...maybe the NE Hills some can grab an inch to 2'' but forecast soundings (at least at BDL) show a ton of dry layers. There is a decent amount of mid-level lift though...that's for sure, but there's also a quite a bit of subsidence in the lowest 10-15K of the atmosphere. any accumulations are going to be extremely localized

CAA dominates moving into Tuesday and well into Wednesday. You can see the resultant subsidence Here is the 850 RH. Plenty of dry air around. Sure dynamics are pretty damn solid and that will help with lift...but you can have all the lift you want...if there's nothing to lift...well I do agree with BOX there may be some narrow bands of snow, but this is going to be NBD in terms of accumulating snow.

I get the idea that TWC does use snow maps but obviously are presented differently...I could be wrong on that though. Anyways...that's exactly what I mean! It's the twitter weenies using them and b/c there are so many of them they just dominate. What I also can't stand is when you see the people (I've seen this on TV too...not around here but from youtube videos) who will post a model output...and then say, "But this solution has zero chance of happening or it's extremely unlikely"...THEN WHY EVE POST IT OR MENTION IT??? A huge example of that was this one event last winter...I think it was the one where we had the ice event here in central CT. Where model snow maps were showing 20-30''...people would post them...I think even one of the local news stations did (not Ryan's station) and it was either the GFS or Euro showing 20-30'''they said, something along the lines of this is what one of our forecast models are showing but thankfully it likely won't happen...WTF is the point of mentioning it then? Just why? There is no logical reason to justify showing it or mentioning it. All people are going to do is see the 20-30'' and freak out...and that's exactly what happened

Bingo! Also to your middle part...that is spot on too...I mean you can't put the total blame on the source providing the information...people time in and time out continue to fall for the hype...so sometimes people are there own worse enemy. For example, there is this ridiculous facebook group in CT...don't know what it's called but they have thousands, and thousands of followers...they do nothing but hype. People fall for it...get all pissed off...and blame meteorologists...but these same people CONTINUE to go to the same source for information. Kevin is 100% right when he says people love hype. People may say they don't but at the end of the day (for some psychological reason) people are easily sucked into hype.

ehh this is beyond a melt. And I also want to add it's not directed towards anyone here...it's moreso social media...and IMO that's a problem and it's a problem that is only going to worsen. It's a problem b/c probability the majority of people out there receive their weather info from social media...and there is so much garbage going around, so much contradiction, that people are legit confused...and I hear it all the time. People really have zero clue who to trust anymore for weather information...one of the biggest contributors here is hype.

Those maps have basically become the front of winter forecasting. A snow map starts spitting out 3-6''...6-10''...30"+...its sound the alarms...major winter storm threat...it doesn't matter what any other piece of guidance looks like. A snow map has it so it's legit. IMO, winter forecasting is going to continue to go downhill faster than an Olympic skier over the next few years and it's b/c the widespread use of these products to highlight winter threats just outweigh analysis done which incorporate a wide variety of products/knowledge. Model QPF showing 1.2''...snow map has 10-15''...it's real. Then when it busts..."wahhh wahhhh the forecast models suck"

Why is it these setups always, always, always get hyped up? Is it because snow maps go crazy or models blow up QPF? 99.99999% of the time the cold air always lags behind the cold front in this part of the country. Obviously across northern New England things can be a little different but we see time after time...models "go crazy" within this time range and once we get inside 36-42 hours...boom it goes to shit then we have to hear all the crying about how models were wrong. If these events panned out...even half the time, every one of us would probably average another 30'' of snow per year.

Perfectly on track.

While there is the Boston get-together, it's difficult for those who live a distance away from the Boston area to make it...especially during the week. It seems like it's been a quite a while since we had a big turnout get-together and with no conference in several years many of us haven't seen one another in quite some time. In the past, Funky Murphy's in Worcester has been a great central location for many. Funky Murphy's is also large enough to accommodate a large group and we've even had our own like "private room"in the back before. It also had a decent night crawl. Saturday's seem like the most logical day b/c many probably don't work and probably don't have to work the next day. Obviously that day is also used by many for family things but if we can get a date well in advance people can mark their calendar. I am thinking this can be something we do in late spring/early summer. Just late enough to where the weather may just begin to turn nicer and just early enough to where it may avoid vacation scheduling. As far as "what time" I don't think we really need to plan on that...the earliest arrivals probably be in the 2-3 time frame or whatever. What I would like to do is have this poll run for a few weeks and analyze the results of what month seems to be most popular. Once we get a good feeling on that then start pushing out a date in that month.

Worcester would be great...especially a weekend day. That would certainly probably get the biggest gathering. Outside of the local Boston folks weekday just isn't going to work for anyone. I'm just going to start a thread for it.

This is an absolutely gold mine.

I'll have to check his site out! If you could do so that would be incredible! Perhaps you could do something similar to what is done at 33andRain.com. Since I'm really trying to get back into long-range forecasting and understanding all the various teleconnections, forcings, etc I've discovered that site and they have an incredible database going. Perhaps you can just organize everything in a thread and it can be pinned somewhere and it's just links. (didn't they have something similar going on in the NYC forum a while back?...maybe they still do. Haven't ventured there in a while). I try to save bookmarks and links but I do it extremely poorly and when I want to find something I can't lol

I have to thank Steve for posting that link to the Ensemble Situational Awareness table a few weeks back...never came across it but it's phenomenal. Steve always has awesome links. Anyways, PWATS are going to be quite high ahead of that cold front next week. I wouldn't be surprised to see a flood threat develop...especially with the snow pack.

An amplifying trough across the west over the region results in a building ridge downstream across the east coast. The result will be two days of above-average temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Of bigger interest is a pretty significant longwave trough moving through the northern Plains towards the Northeast Monday into Wednesday. Anomalously strong llvl flow through the troposphere will yield an unseasonably strong northward flux of moisture characterized by dewpoints climbing into the 40's and 50's. As the longwave trough approaches so will a cold front. Ahead of the cold front will be numerous areas of widespread showers and heavier downpours. Very strong dynamics look to be present with forecast models indicating an impressive 80-100+ MLJ streak developing around the base of the trough moving through the warm sector. While lapse rates won't be impressive (both mlvl and llvl) a moist llvl airmass should result in weak instability. The potential exists for a low-topped line of convection to develop ahead of the front which should move through a good part of the region. There may be two areas where some isolated damaging (convective) winds may occur; PA into NY/western New England Monday and then across eastern southern New England Tuesday. Mesoscale aspects are going to play some big influences at times; especially regarding where some of the heaviest rain occurs. Flooding doesn't appear to be a major threat, however, some local focal points of flooding may transpire. This will be another drawn out event...characterized by periods where the weather is quite unsettled and other periods where it is quiet.

I wonder if there is some sort of database out there which records/measures the accuracy of MOS at each forecast location. I'd be curious to see where MOS does overly well and where it sucks. I have a feeling it's probably trash at Sioux Falls, SD.

Came home to this yesterday.

farther north I think...like central/northern VT. Not completely confident on it but I think there are some signals.

Could see several-inches of upslope snow tomorrow night in VT.

No I was referring to the airport. Thanks!

Any ideas for updated numbers at Logan? Last PNS report was after midnight

They actually have it in their PDF thing!

Thanks...guess only BOX does it around here. Was hoping Albany did one of these too

Does anyone know where the NWS posts storm totals on a map. There is the map which shows LSR reports but I know I've seen a map posted which sort of shows totals...in a similar format they use when issuing snow maps

Woah...this legit happened in the past like 15 min in Branford...it was snowing lightly earlier but now it’s all coated

850 fronto 700 fronto can see where heavy snow will setup and pivot over. Looks like several inches for a good part of CT coming up