weatherwiz

Holy **** yeah....I stand corrected

what was the gradient with that?

The coastal front is going to be absurd. Could be talking near mid-30's on the warm side and mid-20's on the cold side. Helluva gradient over such a short distance

Hello

Can just hope its a slow rot and death...that's how we'll get totally smoked. Also interesting with the double-barrel low...I think the GFS has kinda hinted at something similar but that is quite interesting on the NAM. The H7/H5 evolution are just so funky with this. Go from getting a more compact closed/stacked system to becoming more elongated and this process happens very quickly with occlusion. Damn...this is so close to being an absolute monster

The NAM seems a little more "thumpy" though? Still looks with the quick occlusion b/c the inflow shuts off pretty quickly. Not a total fan of how quickly that fronto lifts north...really was hoping it would pivot. But...if it can sit and slowly rot somewhere...someone pulls a 16-18

well...you know what's coming then

I'm really hoping for a Valentine's Day snowstorm this year so Tip can take us down memory lane back to his college days about how he chased the love of his life naked across campus chugging through the balloon sized snowflakes that formed tiny icicles as they melted on his hot skin and noted a sudden wind shift when his wind sock swiftly pointed in the opposite direction, telling him the coastal front had gone through

certainly worried about dry air into the valley so could get screwed there.

First stab here in Connecticut. Unless we see serious changes to the overall evolution of this storm in the upper-levels, as modeled right now, and all guidance really, I am quite certain the band of heavy snow would traverse Connecticut.

Precisely why QPF hugging usually leads to one getting into trouble very good indicator for lift and banding

frontogenesis is essentially just the increase of horizontal temperature gradient over time. The stronger the increase, the stronger the frontogenesis. The stronger the fronto, the stronger the upward vertical motion.

Do you think this recent cold blast could actually work to keep the baroclinic zone farther south or depending on how the re-development occurs/when would that work to bump it back north a bit? I still think the band is being way underdone...hell, there is even a strong signal for dynamic cooling aloft...that would further intensify the temp. gradient. Hell, look at 925...as warm as +8 to +9 C inflow with 925's actually cooling through the day down to around -9 to -10 in central New England. This is one helluva banding signal.

yes thanks lol. doing a million things at once

oops...I accidentally mixed NAM and GFS in that post but the jest is the same.

Here's H7 on the NAM: Here's H85 (with an emphasis too on temperature gradient as well as the strength of inflow) ULJ this should favor large scale lift All of this would point towards a pretty monster band forming with more than sufficient QPF (despite what models are outputting). I actually feel very good about here in CT (though going to have to account for some dry air concerns when composing the forecast) but there are plenty of good looks (and of course some negatives) but I will gladly take alot of what's being modeled

I thought downsloping was more of a concern with NW flow...not NE...although I can see it from the ORH hills but that really shouldn't be a player here in CT? I do recall though a few storms where the wind direction was just right where parts of NE CT downsloped. If anything wouldn't the concern be more of llvl dry air advecting from north?

I'm not entirely worried about the CTRV just yet. Was just thinking about banding and I could be wrong on this but the last storm really bought this to my mind...if the H7 low doesn't become totally compact (if it stays more elongated) that could favor a farther NW displacement of the CCB while if it develops more compact that would favor the CCB closer to the low center (say 50 miles away as opposed to like 75). I would also think the slope of the fronto should be quite steep...doesn't that factor too into CCB displacement?

If we can implement the one-line phrase posts " [MODEL] looks good" onto the stock market it would become the next Game Stop

Agreed...I think initially, especially like 4-5 days out when you're very confident in a storm and impact you can certainly give a wide range but you need to stress as you get closer and details become clearer the forecast can be fine tuned.

I am not a huge fan either...I would never do that in a forecast, especially if forecast for a smaller geographical area (say Connecticut). In this situation, I was just referring too the max range...but if I was tying a forecast to that the range would have been like 18-24'' for max end with the next area 12-18''. But i'm totally with you...I am not a fan of wide ranges...especially stuff like 2-5'' or 3-7''. My professor used to harp on that alot...the difference between 2'' and 5'' is snow plowing and snow blowing and well not needed to do either. I know landscapers HATE when they see ranges like that...it drives them nuts b/c it makes it difficult for them to plan

This has been another PITA trying to pin down...onset across our region anyways. I was actually wondering if we see a scenario where we might get a period of light snow Sunday into Monday but that shuts off as the re-development process undergoes and then things blossom through the day Monday

I did see your post on fb...very well said and thought out. Actually even looking t 12z euro right now closed H5 and H7 track are pretty damn favorable...it just still seems a little occlusion happy. It certainly will occlude...but how quickly is the million $$$ question.

I'm not totally sold about occlusion occurring that quickly either. Seems like that whole process is being accelerated...why not sure. I'm actually thinking a bit bullish for down this way as there is a quite a bit I like...especially regarding the baroclinic zone...+7C in the warm sector and as cold as -8C to -9C across the interior...that is one helluva gradient Assuming we don't occlude as quick as advertised this is going to have a monster band traverse SNE. I'm in the boat of a 1-2 feet for a large part of SNE

ehhh possibly...actually looks pretty solid through central CT but not sure about that far east