weatherwiz

just N or NW of the lows...which on cod it didn't really appear that way. Look at the 700VV on Cod...has the strongest within the 282m contour. Anyways I think its more of a contour thing...looks like cod does every 3m and TT does every 4m...so adding in an extra contour on Cod I suppose it's fine. But regarding the posts about the snow hole in CT...CT sucks on serious subsidence/dry air on the NAM

Is rime factor only available in AWIPS?

The NAM seems extremely bizarre on just all levels...especially with the VV's

CT also only had 4 October tornadoes and none since 1979...then last October happened what would be curious to know is how many potential events we have had over those years in that time frame. I chalk this one up to "Don't count your chickens before they sh*t" category...surprises ranging from both sides of the spectrum with this one

probably has a snow tax in place so snow will just go around the state

Made some slight adjustments...shifted the 2-4'' zone farther north into southern CT and trimmed the 8-12'' range back a bit. Almost kinda wishing i kept my initial map which was I think 1-3'' immediate shoreline and 3-6'' inland...then added a zone of like 6-10'' where I have the 8-12''...oh well.

IMO these maps are the primary reason for busted forecasts and I think they're hurting the meteorological community. They got tossed around left and right, the general public gets whiff of them and all hell breaks loose from there. I don't think they're 100% invaluable...they can certainly provide some insight as to where accumulating snow is more likely and perhaps they can pick up on mesoscale features like downslope. I love that about bufkit! It's an incredible tool and very useful b/c if you have a storm where ratios vary you can gauge where to apply higher/lower ratios.

Well that's good to know. true When I first starting taking stabs at snowfall forecasting I use to just estimate a ratio and see what the precip maps were showing for QPF and bang out some math...worked once in a while lol

I only use them to just gather an illustration of the area where snow accumulations are possible...its just a glancing look too. Other than this I don't pay attention to them and just look past them whenever I see them on social media or anywhere

Wait a second...do all snow maps account for sleet in the algorithms? No wonder why they're always spitting out insane totals You can't incorporate sleet into an algorithm using a fixed ratio...especially a ratio that high.

Gotcha...sort of seems similar to what the GFS would indicate? Just looking at mlvls on the GFS that's something I can envision happening.

^^^Now that makes more sense

Is the RGEM doing anything with the CCB? Based on the structure of that snow map my guess it isn't...Unless it does have it but it is not bringing it into CT and has it traversing west to east across MA.

The dry slot will screw someone...but I would think it's only temporary.

It may rip in the NW Hills Monday evening per the GFS...pretty damn good soundings with some great lift.

This is one of the more bizarre thermal profile modelings I can remember. Do models take into account latent heat release at all? I know sneaky warm layers aren't uncommon but some of what's being modeled is a little head scratching

biased...more like intelligent. Ray is a phenomenal forecaster who uses absolutely zero bias in his forecasts. He devotes a great deal of time into making (and what usually end up being) very solid calls. Go stick to your ridiculous snow maps and let the people who actually forecast based on science/meteorology do their thing.

yup lol. oh well...time to go home...no traffic either

I guess looking closer on the cod map there could be another closed contour over LI...anyways the entire thing is rather broad and that's going to keep the lift much further north.

ehhh...it's kinda a broad circulation so hard to really tell where it exactly tracks over but Branford is close enough to LI just a ferry trip away

Tracks H7 and H85 over my fanny

Should kinda be expected though with that push of WAA...it's just a matter of how the column responds post WAA regime.

Flagstaff I think is very underrated...they can get crushed with snow and wind.

Wish I was in western SD though...sustained winds 25-35 mph with gusts 50-70 mph...reminds me of watching Little House on the Prairie...and reading the books. Maybe next year I'll do storm chasing for a week out west and then take another week for snow chasing and go to a place that's going to get a nasty blizzard in the Plains

Hamden is probably the best spot to be in CT for extreme weather lol. "F4" in 1989, another tornado last year, downbursts, macrobursts, they had that historic flooding, the 40'' of snow, more flooding.