weatherwiz

In retrospect when you really think about everything, what transpired is actually not a surprise. All the signals were there for super intense banding and when bufkit was spitting out 60-80+ units of omega into the DGZ that's pretty striking. Obviously there are other wildcard factors such as pivoting and I guess this system maybe didn't really occlude as quickly as models indicated. Also think H7 was a bit more compact and stronger than forecast. Hell...even strong signals for ratios up around 18:1 - 20:1 under the intense stuff.

I'm actually hoping we can turn the Christmas Eve storm into a ow topped convective/severe threat.

I left my back window open. Thank God not much snow got in the car but IT'S FREEZING IN THERE UGHHHHHHHH. Two years ago when we had the major snowstorm the day the Patriots beat the Chiefs in the AFC Championship and it was like -15 outside Sunday night, I left my back windows open and when I went out to work at 5 AM the inside of my car was a popscile.

Is that list up-to-date? I thought CA set a new record a couple winters ago

just sit in the snow

I want thundersnow. not fair

coming down nicely in Branford...actually probably better snowgrowth than most of last night lol

I just saw a mini snow tornado!!!!! dust devil style but with snow hahahahaa awesome

so there was sleet? ahahahaahahahaa

snowing in Branford...already got a dusting...blowing around quite a bit too

18z GFS still with 50-60 units of omega in the DGZ. This pisses me off b/c for the life of me but I can never, ever remember what each of those purple and yellow contours indicate regarding the DGZ on bufkit...I don't know why. I do notice though you don't see a tight clustering of purple and yellow contours. I understand it but I don't enough to like explain it to anyone which really sucks. EDIT: I didn't realized I changed the intervals

H7-H5 fronto starting to strengthen! I still think the best banding may occur a bit southeast of guidance...at least per mesoanalysis that HP seems farther south

Forget model snowfall maps right now (in a perfect world they would be forgotten all together)...focus on mesoanalysis and how the system evolves over the next several hours. You'll be able to tell from this much more clearly what to expect than from a stupid snowfall map.

If I talked about severe wx in here I'd be yelled at

This is something I really need to utilize more.

I always misjudge that I think. I'm always inclined to think they are coincident, but in reality it's typically just northwest of where the best fronto is, right? Or does the slope influence the actual placement too?

Very cute 18z HRR bufkit for BDL. what is really going to help with verifying higher range of totals will be the much higher ratios under the band. Should see ratios push 18:1 - 20:1. I would wager many are recording like 8-10'' in a 3/hr span...maybe even 11-12'' for the slant stickers

I don't see a situation like that either. If I remember correctly, that was a product of the banded nature of the storm due to it being "too intense". But you do make a point...even in subsidence snow could still come down heavy.

good point

I am a bit concerned down here though about busting too high. I also find it quite intriguing there is such an intense fronto band shown without the pleasure of a more compact closed H7 low but the profile certainly favors it

Would be better as a gif but the NAM pivots the band right through central MA it appears but it rots. Even probably clips NW CT

Also, I don't think the wind direction is very favorable for valley shadow or downsloping. what would get us is any subsidence if we are on wrong end of the band.

Be fun to watch how quickly we can moisten up the llvls. That is one significant gradient between very dry air and more saturated air.

Awesome info, thanks. gotcha...I think I see where the disconnect is coming from. I'm just talking about the potential in general while the focus was on that specific example.

We saw this exact same situation with the storm last December...or maybe it was the year before. HRRR started indicating mixing and every single person dismissed it and it was over the same argument. I wish I had the brain power to remember specific events but I recall several over the past few years where this happened, especially during these early season events; 1) when precipitation intensity is light and 2) when best lift falls below the DGZ it doesn't matter how thin that warm layer (even if barely boerderline)...now perhaps it will be as cold as indicated in the cloud layer as dendrite mentioned but I don't get why everyone is so quick to dismiss these things when we've seen them happen so many times before.