weatherwiz

Huge flakes in Branford...everything coated up

Better idea... I'm going to go to Danbury and party tonight. The NAM and GFS have me visually upset...I am angered. I'm so sick of this crap. If things trend back to the other direction I can always come to Branford in the AM.

my job would pay for the room. I would probably pay one night though (tonight ) and have them cover tomorrow night. The motel 6 up the street is only about $60/night. My main issue is I have to leave about 4:45 AM...probably earlier given roads and if we do get measurable snow at BDL and anything ices up...I'm not sure when our association does snow removal.

If we go through December without anything that will be fired up

Hell...at this point I'm even debating whether I should just go back to BDL and not even get a hotel room. Although...I was more worried about what happens tomorrow into Monday.

Well the CCB tries to crank briefly here but that dry slot is racing in. It's not even December yet and I'm already tired of winter

It's possible though something like that may be related to contouring or something...I doubt (or would hope anyways) that this wouldn't really impact the output of the model at all. Since it's more of an elongated low it's probably just picking coordinates where pressure is lowest (????)

I don't think it can be totally discounted if such an intense materialized...there would be some serious subsidence and with dry air involved and no lift...going to be tough to generate precip. Anyways...let's not forget this front end...we could do extremely well with that. Look at the NAMNEST (18z) for BDL...that's some serious lift into the DZG prior to the flip.

Thankfully we are still like ~40 hours away from when this second part materializes so there is still plenty of wiggle room. If everything continues to align in this direction though with overnight guidance it will be extremely concerning.

Certainly buy the dry slot...just not sure to this extent.

just N or NW of the lows...which on cod it didn't really appear that way. Look at the 700VV on Cod...has the strongest within the 282m contour. Anyways I think its more of a contour thing...looks like cod does every 3m and TT does every 4m...so adding in an extra contour on Cod I suppose it's fine. But regarding the posts about the snow hole in CT...CT sucks on serious subsidence/dry air on the NAM

Is rime factor only available in AWIPS?

The NAM seems extremely bizarre on just all levels...especially with the VV's

CT also only had 4 October tornadoes and none since 1979...then last October happened what would be curious to know is how many potential events we have had over those years in that time frame. I chalk this one up to "Don't count your chickens before they sh*t" category...surprises ranging from both sides of the spectrum with this one

probably has a snow tax in place so snow will just go around the state

Made some slight adjustments...shifted the 2-4'' zone farther north into southern CT and trimmed the 8-12'' range back a bit. Almost kinda wishing i kept my initial map which was I think 1-3'' immediate shoreline and 3-6'' inland...then added a zone of like 6-10'' where I have the 8-12''...oh well.

IMO these maps are the primary reason for busted forecasts and I think they're hurting the meteorological community. They got tossed around left and right, the general public gets whiff of them and all hell breaks loose from there. I don't think they're 100% invaluable...they can certainly provide some insight as to where accumulating snow is more likely and perhaps they can pick up on mesoscale features like downslope. I love that about bufkit! It's an incredible tool and very useful b/c if you have a storm where ratios vary you can gauge where to apply higher/lower ratios.

Well that's good to know. true When I first starting taking stabs at snowfall forecasting I use to just estimate a ratio and see what the precip maps were showing for QPF and bang out some math...worked once in a while lol

I only use them to just gather an illustration of the area where snow accumulations are possible...its just a glancing look too. Other than this I don't pay attention to them and just look past them whenever I see them on social media or anywhere

Wait a second...do all snow maps account for sleet in the algorithms? No wonder why they're always spitting out insane totals You can't incorporate sleet into an algorithm using a fixed ratio...especially a ratio that high.

Gotcha...sort of seems similar to what the GFS would indicate? Just looking at mlvls on the GFS that's something I can envision happening.

^^^Now that makes more sense

Is the RGEM doing anything with the CCB? Based on the structure of that snow map my guess it isn't...Unless it does have it but it is not bringing it into CT and has it traversing west to east across MA.

The dry slot will screw someone...but I would think it's only temporary.

It may rip in the NW Hills Monday evening per the GFS...pretty damn good soundings with some great lift.