weatherwiz

there was a sizable LES event I think end of Feb or early March last year

That's the tweet I was talking about! Didn't even realize it came from BOX

Not sure I'd use "cold" to describe the pattern. It's more like moderated junk or just meh. Outside of some brief cold shots there doesn't look to be any true cold and certainly nothing sustaining.

"I was relaxing in my hammock at my newly purchased home on the Tug hill Plateau. All of a sudden the sky became filled with a blanket of white and dry clouds. Boom, it was puking snow like I had never seen. Before I could escape the hammock the snow was up to my knees. I ran inside to my computer, threw up the GFS, and saw this monster shortwave traversing Lake Eerie. Lake Eerie was NOT frozen, the delta T was through the roof. This lake was giving this monster shortwave a great meal of moisture and it was dumping it's load on me".

I'm pretty certain it is a thing. I think though it goes unnoticed because our greatest moisture sources are obviously the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, but in situations where you get a system traversing over one of the Great Lakes...it could certainly supply it with a "moisture boost".

Streaming right into my fanny I think though the s/w or low has to like directly pass over one of the Lakes, no? I remember we had a few clippers that went over the Lakes perfectly and it aided quite a bit in moisture availability. There was one...I think late 2000's I think this was a huge factor and we ended up getting smoked. I hope so for your sake! But I think I actually saw a tweet last night...the percentage of lakes frozen over (Great Lakes) and snow depth across the country is very abnormally low. The snow depth map was putrid.

I wonder if the Lakes not being frozen over could play into our favor for the 20th...especially if the energy does amplify a bit more.

Yes...true...it really is the Euro and others that have a tendency to hold energy back in the SW too long.

models do tend to hold back energy in the SW too long...although there seems to have been some improvement with this with updates over the past several years.

Thursday/Friday could offer a similar type of ordeal.

Was just looking at that now...that is super close for sure. I always love clippers that surprise. The GFS looked pretty decent and the Euro even slightly better...I think

So far we've made it without any long sustained brutally cold outbreaks!!! I'm also getting an automatic car starter Sunday...I'll never have to freeze again for more than 7 seconds hahahahahaa

Is peak climo (in terms of coldest temps) now or is that like a week away?

Certainly something to keep in mind for sure. The whole idea that we're behind with all of this though is very maddening. Thankfully at least here in CT, I think we're 5th in percent of population vaccinated but given the uncertainties regarding how long one is "immune" after the vaccine and also the notion that it takes time after being vaccinated to develop the antibodies...we are continuing to shoot ourselves in the foot. I've also haven't heard much on the treatment front...the vaccines have been dominate in the news but have there been any new treatments developed or being used or tested?

Yeah that is the downfall with J&J is their production is not where it should be at. I am stunned about Oxfords...remember when all this had started and the talk of vaccines were ramping up I had advocated strongly for Oxford and thought theirs would be the first to be authorized. Didn't the UK authorize theirs though? But seeing what's happening with Moderna/Pfizier and mRNA...that could be really ground breaking for future vaccine research.

Sweet!!!

it belongs in the picture hall of fame

Was hoping we would see an IHME model update this week but guess not. Per the model though, we should have hit peak and now it's a slow downward trend towards the light. May not get below 1,000 deaths a day until late March. As stated by a few in here, we need a quicker vaccine rollout. At least in CT though it seems to be going very well. After a ~11% positivity rate the other day today's was under 5%.

ughhh so sad sorry to hear

yeah I've known several people this go around who have had it; including 3 people from my work. Also knowing alot more people who know people who have it. The first wave it was really hard to find anyone or knew someone who knew someone who had it.

Only issue is they're behind in production

109-days to go!!!

We should know alot about how the second half of this month will play out by this weekend I would think. Looks like the changes that would start occurring (at least on the Pacific side) happen this weekend. GFS at least with significant changes to the jet structure across East Asia. Instead of this intense jet extension we've been seeing looks like may even see a series of wave breaking off the East Asian continent which would help drive ridging in the PNA/EPO region (hopefully)

Probably Hamden, CT. Which is on my list of potential locations to move spring or early summer.

that's after mid-month...that's more mid-to-late month