weatherwiz

The inflow too is coming from higher theta-e air/CAPE to the east of it. that could really help get things going

It is getting very windy here in Branford. something just blew into the back of someones car here

getting close to a TOR east of ABE

poweroutages.us when from like 134 to over 1400 in 15 min. 1,421 as of 1:06 now 2,797 as of 1:22

Power outages rising quickly in CT

TORNADO WATCH UP SOUTHWEST OF HERE!!!!!!!! Coming here next!!!!!!!!! wooooohooooooooo

That stuff coming up in SE PA might be aided by the H7 dry slot and is right on the nose of steeper lapse rates. Even on the nose of a secondary H5 jet max rounding the base of the trough

starting to see some weak mesos in PA and with that stuff off the coast...that stuff will graze far SE CT (perhaps), RI, and SE MA later

Core of LLJ will be confined to this area. LLJ will continue to increase through the afternoon. Bigger gusts happen as 925 cranks

I thought we would see 30% wind contour in SE PA/NJ into SE NY

2-8

that is the activity to probably watch moving through the afternoon.

yeah I think there will be some lightning in the more robust convection. There is a bit of lightning with that activity just offshore. Actually a decent amount of hail CAPE so if any updrafts can grow tall enough to punch into this layer we'll see lightning. Perhaps similar to the Cape COD TOR warning last week where there was a rapid increase in lightning just prior to strengthening rotation.

Window to watch is between 3-7 PM I think from NJ into southeast NY perhaps into southwestern CT...probably the greatest chance for severe weather (widespread wind damage and a few tornadoes) is in this corridor.

Bingo One thing to watch too is where this axis of higher theta-e traverses. Does appear this clips at least parts of CT/RI/SE MA

both. Although the TOR potential with this setup is a bit odd...probably moreso along the lines of cells merging

There could be a second window across the Cape...like sunrise surprise window.

agreed.

Think we could see an enhanced risk with next SPC update with SLIGHT into SNE.

Forecast 3km CAPE for I think 19z today. Want to watch how that progresses moving into SNE. Also a push of MLCAPE of 250-500 J. Going to be an active day

I wonder if that is factoring in any thunderstorms...even if so that's pretty decent stuff

That is one impressive LLJ modeled to traverse CT/RI/SE MA afternoon into the evening. The core of the LLJ max too also arrives while we still have some daylight so that will help with winds too (some better mixing). Then towards evening you get an impressive surge of CAPE...even some very weak surface based CAPE...but you get any sfc based CAPE in this environment and you're going to get winds. T'storms should have potential to produce 70 mph wind gusts. I think you'll see quite a bit of power outages tomorrow

Really no thread on this??? Looks like ingredients will align on what should amount to a fairly widespread severe weather event with damaging winds and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes from the mid-Atlantic through southern New England. Forecast models really hinting at a rather impressive surge of instability with very strong dynamics. While we will also have a temperature inversion to contend with, there should be strong non-convective wind gusts as well (30-40 mph). Scattered power outages, flash flooding, and damaging winds all in the cards for tomorrow.

Just enough 3km CAPE poking into the Cape with more than enough shear for a possible tornado. Also, check out the rapid increase in lightning just prior to the tightening couplet. Sometimes that can be a tell take sign for potential tornado genesis IMG_5278.MP4

It's just not a good look that first week for any meaningful cold. Even though the AO/NAO do head negative, it looks like that is driving by some higher height anomalies poking into the southern part of those domains which isn't really favorable for us. Even if we had higher heights into the PNA region I don't think that does much to help given the lack of cold. But yeah, after 12/5 or around that time frame the Pacific looks a bit better with teleconnection support to drive some cold into Canada...so if we can keep a theme going of higher heights into the West maybe mid-December we'll have a shot.