weatherwiz

do you take requests? (and do you know how to play any Taylor Swift songs) on the accordion? That would be sick

This is getting even more and more exciting!! Just did an update to my forecast. I hate to go so high given the band doesn't seem to pivot but I think when accounting for the ratios (which I think could be 15:1 - 18:1 during height) and QPF being forecast...these higher end totals are doable. I do have the concerns in the CT River Valley but didn't incorporate that onto the map but did so in discussion mentioning totals maybe closer to 12''.

I was just woken up my a mouse jumping up on my bed and I don’t know what to do I wont be able to go back to bed and it’s still too early

oof that is a mean dry punch that materializes on the GFS...looks like it's the culprit into quickly shutting down the band? Thought it was occlusion but on second look don't think it's occlusion

probably moreso Monday...maybe first flakes fly early Mon AM.

Perhaps not likely, but can't totally discount that just yet.

Well too Steve's point here...if we are talking 1.25'' to 2'' QPF (assuming ratios will be pretty decent) we're probably talking in the ballpark of 18-24''. (Obviously assuming the majority of that, if not, all is snow.

yeah go figure...not this first time this has happened either. I was actually shocked when I started taking a deeper dive into the thermals near the sfc...my initial guess from everything was this would be a pretty cold storm but not the case.

Holy **** yeah....I stand corrected

what was the gradient with that?

The coastal front is going to be absurd. Could be talking near mid-30's on the warm side and mid-20's on the cold side. Helluva gradient over such a short distance

Hello

Can just hope its a slow rot and death...that's how we'll get totally smoked. Also interesting with the double-barrel low...I think the GFS has kinda hinted at something similar but that is quite interesting on the NAM. The H7/H5 evolution are just so funky with this. Go from getting a more compact closed/stacked system to becoming more elongated and this process happens very quickly with occlusion. Damn...this is so close to being an absolute monster

The NAM seems a little more "thumpy" though? Still looks with the quick occlusion b/c the inflow shuts off pretty quickly. Not a total fan of how quickly that fronto lifts north...really was hoping it would pivot. But...if it can sit and slowly rot somewhere...someone pulls a 16-18

well...you know what's coming then

I'm really hoping for a Valentine's Day snowstorm this year so Tip can take us down memory lane back to his college days about how he chased the love of his life naked across campus chugging through the balloon sized snowflakes that formed tiny icicles as they melted on his hot skin and noted a sudden wind shift when his wind sock swiftly pointed in the opposite direction, telling him the coastal front had gone through

certainly worried about dry air into the valley so could get screwed there.

First stab here in Connecticut. Unless we see serious changes to the overall evolution of this storm in the upper-levels, as modeled right now, and all guidance really, I am quite certain the band of heavy snow would traverse Connecticut.

Precisely why QPF hugging usually leads to one getting into trouble very good indicator for lift and banding

frontogenesis is essentially just the increase of horizontal temperature gradient over time. The stronger the increase, the stronger the frontogenesis. The stronger the fronto, the stronger the upward vertical motion.

Do you think this recent cold blast could actually work to keep the baroclinic zone farther south or depending on how the re-development occurs/when would that work to bump it back north a bit? I still think the band is being way underdone...hell, there is even a strong signal for dynamic cooling aloft...that would further intensify the temp. gradient. Hell, look at 925...as warm as +8 to +9 C inflow with 925's actually cooling through the day down to around -9 to -10 in central New England. This is one helluva banding signal.

yes thanks lol. doing a million things at once

oops...I accidentally mixed NAM and GFS in that post but the jest is the same.

Here's H7 on the NAM: Here's H85 (with an emphasis too on temperature gradient as well as the strength of inflow) ULJ this should favor large scale lift All of this would point towards a pretty monster band forming with more than sufficient QPF (despite what models are outputting). I actually feel very good about here in CT (though going to have to account for some dry air concerns when composing the forecast) but there are plenty of good looks (and of course some negatives) but I will gladly take alot of what's being modeled

I thought downsloping was more of a concern with NW flow...not NE...although I can see it from the ORH hills but that really shouldn't be a player here in CT? I do recall though a few storms where the wind direction was just right where parts of NE CT downsloped. If anything wouldn't the concern be more of llvl dry air advecting from north?