weatherwiz

That's incredible...wow. That is an excellent question. Those numbers sound about right to me...but even if the perfect mid/upper level pattern were to unfold there would still be some moderations from vegetation/moisture and dewpoints. Even with a predominately NW flow we probably would still be looking at 40/50 dewpoints. I'm sure topography is likely also enhancing the heat out there

HOLY CRAP at the GFS bufkit for PDX Monday

I would assume we could be looking at some pretty big record warmth into the southern tier of the Arctic domain?

Daily 500mb height records will be shattered this week across the PAC NW. Hell...likely even all time possible

Makes a ton of sense. That's also another wildcard factor that is quite difficult to assess the lag between the change in an atmospheric/oceanic state. For example, let's say we do transition to EL Nino for the winter...we could feature EL Nino conditions within the ocean but the atmosphere is still "Nina-ish". If we do go to EL Nino it will be interesting to see how quickly that transition occurs. Historically the transition from Nino --> NIna seems to happen much more easily than Nina ---> to El Nino but 1965, 1972, and 1976 saw such occurrences...although 76 was much more late blossoming

I haven't gotten around to read your post-winter analysis yet but did you address any reasonings as to why it didn't behave like you thought?

And more precisely how they evolve/behave over the course of the season. Which this is something that I think Ray does very well with in his seasonal outlook presentations. Some out there who issue seasonal outlooks just focus on the variables as a whole and try to justify a seasonal forecast based off the state as a whole or a single state (for example, -NAO vs. +NAO). But IMO it's also more than just PNA, EPO, NAO, etc...it's trying to gauge what driver or drivers will hold the biggest influence on the shaping of the global pattern.

I think it’s a huge factor right along the immediate coast but not really as far inland as one would think. I’ll respond in better detail as to why I think so tomorrow when (if) I can get to my computer.

Watch line go through CT lol. Horrifically threw my back out earlier picking something up. Worst I’ve ever done it. Barely got myself to my bed then took me 3 hours to be able to get back up. This means line will be severe here b/c I can’t get to the airport

I think it’s more of a factor that the best forcing/lift is way northwest. The storms rapidly weaken as they move east b/c they outrun the better upper support. I think the south wind/marine taint stuff gets too much credit when talking about decaying thunderstorms here.

I don’t really have much knowledge of this but what Scott says makes sense. @OceanStWx wound probably have the best input.

Could be some pretty nasty supercells across upstate NY Monday afternoon. Meh for severe here but should see some decent rain spread throughout the region next few days

meh...timing looks a bit off and looks like greatest potential...surprise...south and west of our area. Although SW CT could be in a decent spot. But can't totally right it off...models differing in timing.

I have been away on vacation (on the way back but stuck in Delaware due to someone getting killed by a train or something). Trying to look at stuff on my laptop but the train WIFI sucks

It is very possible at some point in the future there could be discussions about reclassifying tornadoes, however, I think it would be extremely challenging. However, given the increase in technology we have now it's very possible we can classify tornadoes on the scale without them having done any damage...so long an accurate wind measurement can be recorded. Given increase in radar technology too we can probably become (more) accurate and precise on estimating winds speeds from radar

they should just cancel that guidance altogether

THAT'S RIDICULOUS

This was exactly my thought but then I went right to your second point...a 4F swing would be massively insane. I also briefly thought maybe one is averaging the period and one is focusing on the beginning or end of the period...but no way there is a 4F swing either over the course of the week.

ummmm WTF

It's very intriguing, especially if we can destabilize. I'm just pissed that with this mlvl flow we can advect in steeper lapse rates. Height falls are quite impressive though with more than sufficient shear.

Despite lackluster shear there has been sufficient CAPE in the hailgrowth zone these past few days to warrant the strongest cores to produce hail.

That is quite an interesting take and does make some sense. Over this past month we have seen a back-and-forth wobble going on. It looks like big heat wants to become established into our area but the way the Arctic configures really wants to suppress the heat back to our Southwest...but we have seen with this stretch that once that relaxes the big heat is getting in here. We're either doing a pattern of slightly below-average or way above-average...there is no in the middle. I kinda of agree with your thoughts too about going forward...we may very well see a pattern evolve which becomes very omega like...there are some precursors to this trying to occur but there are alot of moving pieces and lots of uncertainties with how the seasonal pressure center's become positioned and shaped moving through the month.

I was looking at that yesterday...that would be pretty ugly. Kinda afraid that could be a pre-cursor to a sustained pattern across the West.

Is it true the storm tops exceeded 60K across NY?

This stupid jet stream and stupid pattern upcoming is pissing me off. It's just going to be a boring zonal garbage flow with pieces of heat breaking off from the Southwest and floating our way...WHY CAN"T they bring EMLs with them....ummmm because there is no stupid trough moving through the West to displace this EML air east. Just these stupid lifting troughs in the Northwest...ok so EMLs may get pushed into Canada...you would think maybe they would ride the jet and come at us...NOPE. We aren't getting crap for severe in that pattern...big freaking deal maybe some MCS activity with NW flow...flow is garbage everything is garbage. Our big events that happen with NW flow...it's not just b/c of the NW flow its when they occur with a steep lapse rates regime. with this flow you typically get height falls and if you have a southerly flow at the sfc...well warm/moist low-levels and the NW mid/upper levels...dry and cool. then the EML prevents the dry/cool mixing down and mucking up CAPE...CAPE eater I like to call it...or CAPE destroyer. Boring...boring...stupid.