weatherwiz

I'm not entirely worried about the CTRV just yet. Was just thinking about banding and I could be wrong on this but the last storm really bought this to my mind...if the H7 low doesn't become totally compact (if it stays more elongated) that could favor a farther NW displacement of the CCB while if it develops more compact that would favor the CCB closer to the low center (say 50 miles away as opposed to like 75). I would also think the slope of the fronto should be quite steep...doesn't that factor too into CCB displacement?

If we can implement the one-line phrase posts " [MODEL] looks good" onto the stock market it would become the next Game Stop

Agreed...I think initially, especially like 4-5 days out when you're very confident in a storm and impact you can certainly give a wide range but you need to stress as you get closer and details become clearer the forecast can be fine tuned.

I am not a huge fan either...I would never do that in a forecast, especially if forecast for a smaller geographical area (say Connecticut). In this situation, I was just referring too the max range...but if I was tying a forecast to that the range would have been like 18-24'' for max end with the next area 12-18''. But i'm totally with you...I am not a fan of wide ranges...especially stuff like 2-5'' or 3-7''. My professor used to harp on that alot...the difference between 2'' and 5'' is snow plowing and snow blowing and well not needed to do either. I know landscapers HATE when they see ranges like that...it drives them nuts b/c it makes it difficult for them to plan

This has been another PITA trying to pin down...onset across our region anyways. I was actually wondering if we see a scenario where we might get a period of light snow Sunday into Monday but that shuts off as the re-development process undergoes and then things blossom through the day Monday

I did see your post on fb...very well said and thought out. Actually even looking t 12z euro right now closed H5 and H7 track are pretty damn favorable...it just still seems a little occlusion happy. It certainly will occlude...but how quickly is the million $$$ question.

I'm not totally sold about occlusion occurring that quickly either. Seems like that whole process is being accelerated...why not sure. I'm actually thinking a bit bullish for down this way as there is a quite a bit I like...especially regarding the baroclinic zone...+7C in the warm sector and as cold as -8C to -9C across the interior...that is one helluva gradient Assuming we don't occlude as quick as advertised this is going to have a monster band traverse SNE. I'm in the boat of a 1-2 feet for a large part of SNE

ehhh possibly...actually looks pretty solid through central CT but not sure about that far east

That is beautiful looking!

If we don't start getting any snow soon...oof. So much edginess and tension. I gotta say...the mods in this subforum do a pretty damn good job. It's not easy for them given the volume and traffic that goes on here. They also are extremely lenient with letting things slide and with alot of the OT stuff. The issue isn't with the moderators and censorship" the issues lies in the fact that you have adults (who are supposedly quite educated) who can't act like adults and have to resort to childish behavior. There is very little in the way of expecting other's opinions with name calling being resorted to. I'm sure they are just as upset about not allowing some of the talk (particularly with COVID) but some just can't act civil.

At least severe season is right around the corner.

Do you happen to know when the SSW became official? I'm guessing this was too early for it to really have an influence but the AO took a sharp plunge right around Christmas time...I think this is really before the SSW was taking shape, no? Heck...maybe this SSW event really only caused a disruption of the SPV and there was very little coupling between the stratosphere-troposphere? Heck, maybe the way the northern hemisphere was configured prior to the SSW vastly enhanced the screw job we've endured...seems like the SSW/pre-pattern has been much more favorable on the other side of the hemisphere

I'm kinda glad the mega block is breaking down. They can certainly help us but they can also royally screw us. You almost need to have an active pattern with hits right when the mega block develops and you can just kinda ride that train (like we have with some of the mega blocks in the past) but if you end up with a major block and it's not producing right away...chances are it won't. Like Ray said just below your post...we can certainly ride with what is being projected.

I'd just hate to be the bad guy when Ant is about to arrest someone at the same time he views the weeklies which show an all out torch

So per the CDC the UK variant could be the dominant strain in the US by March leading to a spike of cases in the spring. Lovely...we'll never get out of this.

you're like the person who shows up to the party with 100 pong balls hours after someone already bought some

It looks like the NAO block progresses in a favorable trend for us with the block becoming a bit more West-based. Also looks like the NAO may head towards a more positive state (or less negative around the 25/26) which isn't necessarily a bad thing...especially with a prospective storm around. Looks like the flow may relax a bit too which could open some room for amplification

ohhhh I gotcha...I vaguely remember that from my astronomy class I took.

WTF is SZGYGYGYG

Tug hill going to get smoked

The model-to-model consistency regarding the evolution of the energy is pretty strong so that certainly yields confidence that it is real. It's just some drastic differences regarding placement which as has just been mentioned will have a big impact for the clipper

Could that be more euro bias? But it's a pretty solid looking rex block and that high to the north there is looking pretty strong so there really isn't much wiggle room for the low to move. I think too if the s/w was actually going to continue to strengthen it may have a better shot at ejecting, but looks like it reaches maturity very quickly and then rapidly weakens.

The energy may never even eject...might eject and then like shear out.

It has been cold...I mean it's winter so no matter what it's cold. If it's under 75...it's cold

no...unless that mid-month talk is now becoming late-month. Pretty soon it will be pushed into April