weatherwiz

Bufkit is pissing me off. On one computer it keeps re-setting the Momentum Xfer option to 30 and on another computer it re-sets it to 1. WHY???????

A little shocked at that given the high clustering towards the western fringe of the cone.

Anyone see the video of the tornado in Delaware yesterday? Tornado was basically going down the road with people driving through it lol. I wonder how many drivers knew it was a tornado.

Euro has been trash with tropical. Anyways the pattern next week is rather intriguing. One thing we've noticed with the past few or several cold front passages is cold fronts aren't entirely progressing very far through the reigon...in fact, they've been getting held up nearby and we've seen waves of low pressure develop along them. GEFS shows a height configuration next week which would favor the same exact scenario with next week's FROPA Now this isn't exactly being shown in the ENS mean due to smoothing but that trough dipping through southeast Canada into parts of the Northeast is not bad looking...and could certainly capture Elsa as it moves through the mid-Atlantic. This might be a situation where the 500 look isn't striking at first glance for a hit but this isn't a storm that's riding the coast. In fact, given the potential track of Elsa you could argue this 500 look supports the capture potential. Have to look back but I wonder if this configuration is similar to what brought the remnants of Katrina up this way. We had a pretty decent severe threat with that but were too capped in the end.

This was the best shot I could get. Ughh I’m so pissed b/c getting off the highway it was so clearly visible. This was taken about 3-4 minutes after first saw it and taken at the Holyoke mall. Stupid trees blocking a bit but the the real lowering was just past the sign on the right

I did not. Was not 100% sure since I was driving and didn’t get a prolonged glimpse. It was a pretty distinct lowering though…well defined

Today was fun!!! So much CGs and loud booms and saw the tail cloud or walk cloud….wooohooo

AWT!

Back at BDL for next round!!!

Some cute little purple to my SW!!!

Going to go back to Holyoke mall shortly for stuff out west with the warning

Not good RIP line

Just north of Hatfield!

Might go into South Hadley

At Golyoke mall. Saw a super interesting lowering north getting off highway. Looked like tail cloud or wall cloud. Of course it’s obstructed by trees now

yeah that's what I'm thinking

Pretty impressive DCAPE values and bulk shear...even well into CT. I would just like to see some greater 3KM CAPE

because the watch went up

The best shot probably say south of the CT/MA border is to get a solid line organizing dropping through MA and then interacting with any leftover boundaries from yesterday. The HRRR looks like crap but it's been quite inconsistent and given how it's handling the atmosphere I think we toss the HRRR

well I think it's safe to say dewpoints aren't mixing out and in fact looks like we may have some pooling occurring

Could be some boundary enhancement out that way

Could be some interesting cells tomorrow. I think I saw Tip make mention but this is a setup where you can get brief low LCL spinups. Any localized pockets of heating tomorrow will make things intriguing. I could actually see enhanced risk in parts of NJ into SE NY/Fairfield County

HRRR/GFS pretty bullish on dewpoints mixing out. That does make sense when you consider the fact that sfc winds may have a more westerly component, however, llvl moisture is pretty rich with pretty high theta-e air. Based on the setup I would expect dewpoint pooling. I don't think we'll see dewpoints as high as the NAM is advertising (maybe over a small area) but they should remain in the 70-73F. I'd be stunned if they dropped into the 60's

The HRRR is mixing out dewpoints. Don't really see that happening given 850 dews that are like +14C

Actually speaking of spiders I've hardly seen any thus far inside my house yet. There's a huge daddy long-leg that's kinda parked near my bed but those don't really scare me. They just sit and chill in the same spot until they die. As long as they don't come near me I'm good. It's these stupid Wolf and fishing spiders I had last year I'm kinda scared about.