weatherwiz

I think this is a bit different though. I don't think this is a scenario of a cold front passing through and then stalling trying to retreat back north as a warm front. It basically just looks like the cold front stalls (and becomes a stationary front). It's actually a pretty diffuse boundary too so there is a possibility surface heating could contribute to some adjustments of the boundary...similar to what we saw last August.

That is some pretty crazy 0-1km shear tomorrow. It really won't take much CAPE in the lowest 2km for something to spin up.

NAM has a legit tornado threat into SW CT later tomorrow afternoon.

There are some hints on that on some of the models.

along/just southwest of the warm front tomorrow could be quite active. The 6z NAM Bufkit for EWR is actually quite eye opening. the 12z NAM coming out now but this is a massive challenge determining where the boundary stalls

Hudson Valley special?

yeah there looks to be a very narrow area of wind enhancement...perhaps aided by outflow boundaries from yesterday. I think if we can match yesterday's instability output (which seems plausible) we're going to see some nasty storms.

I think it's going to be a pretty interesting period between 6-11 tonight. I am not very confident in how widespread convection will be but I think we'll see some marginal supercell structures. Would like to see a bit more shear but I think there is room for a brief tornado this evening across northern CT

Yeah looks like we could see more Thursday. Going to be another impressive week of rainfall totals for many

not sure. I would wager though they upgrade at least part of the risk area to a Slight. The strongest winds at 500 are north of the front but the southern edge of 35-40 knots may straddle the CT/MA border. How much destabilization tomorrow will be huge so we'll see how that looks in the AM.

That is it!!

we're going to meh our way to big stuff!

Pretty nice directional wind shear tomorrow...to bad llvl shear is a little meh. WHY CAN'T WE KEEP THIS STRONGER LLVL SHEAR TOMORROW WHEN WE HAVE A BIT BETTER MLVL SHEAR?????? Window looks to be like 5-10 PM...could even see some stuff persist later. Biggest key will be how much instability we prime. If similar to today...we may sneak a TOR in. I'll be dreaming of rotating wall clouds

I am not able to. I am not friends with the person so it won't let me. My friend found it on an Enfield, CT form

Came across a video on Facebook taken in Broadbrook. Looks like a definite wall cloud. Can’t comment or share post though since I’m not a friend damn

Couldn’t get to my parking spot. Had to cut across lawn

Incredibly fun drive up 91!!! Starting recording video near Hartford and saw a sick gust front! Got a screen grab from the video. The lightning was wild

Leaving Branford now...going to go to BDL (since I live there anyways but I can stop at the airport)

Don't be afraid to post! that's what this place is for. I am still torn on how today progresses (in the severe department). The CAPE is certainly quite impressive, especially the MLCAPE...values 2000-3000 J don't happen here all that often. We have the very steep low-level lapse rates/DCAPE which really screams at wind damage potential...however, given the poor deep layer shear I think we're really going to struggle to organize convection enough and develop deep enough convection to really produce outside of some isolated/localized areas of damage. How NY fares with this activity will be telling for us. But I think tomorrow is looking better in terms of shear/instability combo

Watch out

What happened to my badges

In a way this cloud debris may actually *help* things a bit. Given the high dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates we actually are destabilizing quite nicely. This cloud debris though may actually keep the mixed-layer capped a bit longer...holding off convective development. Also, this was really more of a late afternoon/early evening show anyways. Judging by sat trends we will see strong heating and once we really crank that the MLCIN should erode without problem. The RAP is getting MLCAPE upwards of 2500 J/KG which is pretty significant around here. It just sucks the mid-level is so bad...I think that's really going to hurt storm organization and limit how mature convection can get.

These differential heating boundaries should help to enhance llvl convergence across a few zones. I think tomorrow is looking pretty decent...could be rather active from southern VT/NH to just south of the Mass Pike. Could see several rounds of convection.

Tomorrow actually looks better than today I think for severe and some hints at another weak EML (which there is one too just south of us today)

Albany sounding not terrible looking. But this goes to show the best shear is going to be displaced a bit. Despite the fact we'll see numerous convection I think things are really going to struggle to organize