weatherwiz

what do you think of coastal low potential end of next week?

Sunday looks like it could be fairly warm..at least down this way

The past 3-days was really a combination of synoptic/convective. The showers Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning was warm front driven (synoptic lift) while the area of showers/thunder which approached later Wednesday was a combination of convective processes and synoptic lift from the warm front which was still positioned nearby...but this was definitely more convectively driven as the bulk occurred during the daylight hours with weakening through the evening. Yesterday was pretty synoptically dominant.

Well looks like there will be plenty of chances for some showers and heavier downpours the first week of May. Both Euro/GFS even hinting at a coastal low developing...maybe even some flakes up north. Still kinda intrigued for some severe potential but looks like best threat probably across PA into maybe parts of NJ or just south.

ahhh this is it...I thought I saw something where he defined what he was talking about...can I stand corrected for standing corrected?

hmmm actually I think I stand corrected...the model maps posted were valid through Friday/Saturday and the discussion went from there.

That was about WEDNESDAY...not Thursday. Kevin absolutely said nothing about today being convective. People need to go back and re-read the exchange and convo about that...it's 10000% obvious he was talking about Wednesday.

Kevin said Wednesday being convective...he wasn't talking about today

Too be fair I think Kevin was only referring to Wednesday in terms of convection...not today/tonight

MOS sucks...it's a complete piece of garbage. I have been using NBM more and even that seems to be kinda trash. Don't get me wrong...MOS/NBM are very good in some areas and at some locations but it's trash...particularly across the center of the country and the Northeast...especially in certain pattern types. I know MOS does not handle anomalous patterns well or seasons of transition but it's a complete embarrassment. I have no clue how some can just rip/read MOS and be happy at the end of the day.

Question on something. From my understanding I think MOS doesn't record sky cover above like 12,000 feet. Does NBM do so?

I'm pretty much the same way...I'd have to probably be on my death bed.

Wow no May discussion thread yet? Well what better way to kick it off by welcoming everyone to severe season! Actually may have a severe threat on Tuesday...particularly western sections.

I knew someone who helped someone clean out their attic when their parents or grandparents died and came across a ton of old baseball cards...like from the 30's-60's. They ended up just giving the cards away not knowing that many in there were worth tens of thousands of dollars. oops

Actually looks like there could be some pretty intense snow squalls tomorrow night...actually wouldn't even be surprised to see some areas of accumulation possible (Green Mountains into the Berkshires, ORH hills, Hills of CT). Could even see some decent LES across parts of NY. Maybe thunder too...pretty unstable aloft

May see scattered power outages tomorrow...pretty long duration period of high winds too.

Exactly...this is why structure and placement of the anomalies are way more important than an index itself. That's why you can't just make a (medium-long range) forecast just based on the state of an index or ENSO alone. For example, here is a composite of DJF temperature anomalies for La Nina's. The last image below gives you an "average" of them all...but sometimes going just based on average can be extremely misleading.

Well pretty much all better today. Actually felt nearly 100% by yesterday evening outside of just being tired but I did sleep pretty well. In terms of the side effects it was pretty much everything I expected based on the information I gathered from folks. Side effects kicking in about 12-hours later with side effects lasting around 12-hours and a full-day of fatigue. I am very glad I asked as many people as possible what they experienced after getting their second shot because I think preparing myself made going through it that much easier.

nice! I'm much better now than I was this morning...just pretty exhausted. Took a 30-minute nap during lunch and that helped quite a bit. Chills and fever are gone though (outside of random bursts of chills) as is the slight headache. Arm is a bit sore but nothing compared to the first shot.

I was never totally enthused with today. If something were to happen...as much as I would love to go chase this evening the 2nd shot has knocked me out. Probably going to sleep after work

Second shot definitely has kicked my ass (not complaining though...feels kinda cool in a way). Just light chills now but definitely a fever with a slight headache and sore arm. I think biggest is how tired I feel...holy crap. Like a complete body tired.

Side effects kicking in…pretty intense chills currently.

can we buy stock in Taylor Hall?

There should be some periods of widespread heavy rain between Thursday and Friday. Some spots maybe 2-3''