weatherwiz

there really is a pretty impressive overlap of 3km CAPE/0-1km helicity (and 0-3km helicity) from like east-central Mass through CT late afternoon. Pretty long hodographs too

It is very intriguing. Looks like that alludes to what I mentioned earlier regarding theta-e ridge that becomes established across northeast MA through western/central CT. This is a bit east then what SPC mentions but it's something to watch.

agreed...especially based off his comments (but I always take what GM's say with a grain of salt )

The pattern wants to throw EML's at s over the next few weeks but I think the jet structure/placement is killing us. The jet looks to get shot pretty far northward so the EML plumes riding along the southern edge of the jet move into Canada. and going back to the May thread...there are also emerging signals for things to turn very warm to hot rather quickly after this miserable weekend. 582dm heights trying to poke into our region second half of next week

The more I look at this the more I become intrigued across central MA and more specifically around ORH County. Actually a pretty good overlap there of strong llvl CAPE and shear.

Kind of a good thing in this setup not to be overpowering with lift/forcing. Should help to keep activity more discrete but I'm sure we'll see a cluster or two evolve and that's where any enhanced would be possible.

I don't think we see a moderate risk with this...I don't think the aerial coverage will be great enough and would like to see stronger instability and a bit stronger shear. It is possible to see an area of enhanced added if enough confidences increases in a narrow swath for enhanced wind damage potential.

NAM NEST has a long-tracked superell from E NY to the NH coast

Now is the time to make a trade...don't wait until July. I know Sale is slated to come back hopefully maybe around or just after the All Star break but I would really like another big arm...whether it be a SP or RP.

There is certainly room for the first week of June to be quite warm. There are no strong signals which really making glaring which direction we will go but it's going to be a battle of being influenced by western ATL low and ridging to our west...but you have a huge dome of +15C to +16C 850 temps well into the OV and TN Valley and it won't take much to get these into our region. the first few days look quite cool but we could warm up very quickly and probably even see some humidity too

There looks to be a window of opportunity from northeast MA into northern CT perhaps for some rapid growing convection late afternoon right along what appears to be a theta-e ridge/higher instability axis.

Could see a tornado or two across upstate NY into northern New England

Correct...when looking at it from that aspect it makes sense but there are a ton of other factors to consider. Speaking from a theoretic/fundamental standpoint a warming Earth with a reduced equator-poleward temperature gradient would result in a decreased jet and would result in less conducive environments for cyclogenesis...which could be a big problem for us. Your point, however, would ring very true with tropical systems and holds merit to the notion that we will see more winter storms produce larger snow totals.

While perhaps true on a local level or in some areas of the world, this isn't entirely true on a overall large-scale.

Synoptics look quite favorable for cyclogenesis Pretty good jet structure Quite the thermal gradient

I don't think it's a dry fropa. Now if people are expecting 0.50-1.00'' of rain they're going to be let down. I think there will be some localized amounts around 0.50'' but for the most part probably a couple tenths of an inch to those who get anything. BOOM! Wants to achieve atmospheric equilibrium too quickly or something

The huge issue is when it comes to forecasting temperatures the NAM is flat out garbage. However, the NAM does a good job at sniffing out factors which could result in temperatures coming in below guidance...and come to think about it...has the NAM ever really given signals where temperatures could overshoot guidance lol. It looks like there might be a small pocket of cooler 925 temps (which happen to reside right over much of SNE)...but they do begin to warm significantly late in the afternoon. The ingredients are certainly there for a warm day tomorrow...and despite not getting into the true warm sector until very late, with enough sunshine the llvl airmass is plenty warm enough to give lower 70's...especially if can probably mix closer to 850. I foresee BD jumping like 3-5F between 4:00-5:00 PM tomorrow

For southern New England I would think the window for showers and thunderstorms is between 5-10 PM...as you go east across the region though the window will increase with time...out in eastern MA probably not until after midnight. Looks like enough instability that many probably see a decent light show.

I guess too a question is whether the inversion is warm front related or if there is enough of a southerly component for some marine induced inversion...the later would be huge b/c this would prevent stronger mixing. I would expect if the inversion is more warm front related that gets reduced due to sfc heating and the strong BL winds would help mix better?

This dates back to some of Friday's conversation but tomorrow's temperature forecast may be a bit tricky. NBM gets BDL into the mid-70's with the GFS at 74 and NAM at 72. Was even getting some mixed signals at EWR. I guess tomorrow is just going to be a product of how well we mix? With the warm front in the vicinity there certainly should be some sort of inversion aloft and this is advertised on forecast soundings...NAM is a bit stronger (promoting less mixing) while the GFS is weaker (promoting stronger mixing). It sucks b/c the NAM tends to underdo mixing while the GFS tends to overmix. Tomorrow may be a day where we get late-afternoon high's (5-6 PM) which I thought about Friday. One thing I find super interesting though is wind direction...soundings show SSW sfc winds and llvl winds at BDL...you would expect to orientate towards SE or SSE with a warm front approach...but perhaps b/c of the W-E configuration of the front we'll maintain S/SSW? This would be interesting b/c on at least a more SW component we tend to mix better. Anyways...I could see BDL struggle for 70-71 or they mix happy and get 77-78 lol

Yeah that kinda blows. Looks like we may have enough elevated instability into the overnight to keep some activity going, though severe threat will be diminished...but actually could be a decent light snow. There is even some indications for a boost in elevated CAPE across eastern sections overnight

A warm front is expected to move west-east across southern New England through the day Tuesday. While isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along/just behind the warm front, a better chance for thunderstorms exists Wednesday ahead of a pre-frontal trough/low-level wind shift. Combination of temperatures well into the 80's to even lower 90's away from the shoreline and dewpoints into the lower-to-near mid-60's will contribute to a modestly unstable atmosphere with mixed-layer CAPE on order of 1500 J/KG. While not terrible strong, winds aloft are enough to warrant the likelihood for convection to develop and become organized with 35-45 knot mid-level jet. There is a wildcard that could result in a more significant severe weather threat and that is a plume of elevated mixed-layer air. Forecast guidance indicates a piece of EML air may break from the central Plains and move into our region, however, the timing of this feature looks to be Wednesday morning/early afternoon before moving into the Atlantic. This would be timed well before the greatest ingredients arrive. Right now, the greatest chance for scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms looks to be NY/PA/western New England, however, depending on timing this could certainly extend farther east.

Wednesday is actually pretty close to a fairly decent severe weather potential but looks like that plume of steep lapse rates exits prior to best ingredients/arrival of lift.

I made a post or two about today a few days back...was never really sold on today. We have had some convective events...had a pretty nice thunderstorm last Sunday actually. I'm just waiting for some "bigger type" setups lol

Possible severe threat around the 31st if we can warm sector