weatherwiz

While I would love to see a few to several inches outside of the hills (and not totally ruling it out yet) I do think it's going to be quite difficult unless it can rip for a good period of time...I do at least think there is room for most to see rain to flip to snow with some bursts of heavier snow but accumulations will be tough...especially given how crappy the ratios should be.

Here is IJD...not too terrible looking

This kinda of reminds me of a setup that I think was kinda similar and not really that long ago...maybe March? The NAM was pretty insistent that H5 would drop to our south while the globals were like right over us...ultimately the globals won. I guess we just need some reason to believe that H5 will become more elongated and pop to our south. I think at least the NW hills could get pounded pretty good. Majority of us still probably see some wintry precip given how cold low-levels are.

the NAM is not budging...kinda would have thought it would maybe head in the other direction with this run but nope. If GFS inches closer to the NAM with the 12z run (which the past few GFS/euro runs have) well...this is quite interesting. The challenge is conveying this lol

Then a month later we had a severe weather outbreak!!! I wonder if there is a correlation between late-season winter weather and increased potential for severe weather in the early spring. Obviously not much of a sample size to work with but it kind of would make sense. We know our biggest severe weather events and outbreaks are typically associated with EML's (which the same can generally be said for other regions too). So what we want to keep in mind here is as we move through the spring and the desert Southwest region beings to warm the foundation has begun for how EML's develop and originate. For us to get these late season winter threats we obviously need some type of trough with sufficient cold air nearby and this trough can either correspond to a ridge across the West or more of an omega type pattern where you have trough-ridge-trough...I think it's this omega pattern which increases focus because understanding EML advection you want some type of trough in the west...but you also want a ridge sort of centered in the heart of the country with a trough in the east...eventually if that trough in the east sort of lifts...we introduce ridging here in the East...since EML's tend to propagate across the edge of the ridge (or the westerlies) this change in the pattern would favor EML advection into our region...and since you had that initial ridge over the center of the country you lessen the likelihood for the EML air to be compromised.

why can't the euro even be like 50 miles farther south. But this seems pretty crazy...534dm 500mb heights overhead...lowest heights in North America over our region

The Weather Channel in one of their recent tweets said sun angle will limit snow totals...but isn't the majority of QPF falling as snow during the overnight and early Friday morning before occlusion just shuts things down?

That is one strong Arctic cold front next week

gotcha...I see exactly what you're saying. The CCB in this scenario would be monstrous...that influx of moisture into that type of llvl cold. so hoping this pans out

Just curious b/c when looking at the 18z NAM I noticed how stretched and elongated H5 was...and was wondering where it would close...but then seeing the NAM close off at 850 south of LI then 700 you knew...but...my question is why does a stretched out look enhance thermal conveyor?

If you were to write a book about how to get pummeled in CT with snow...this would be the example lol

Just look at that transport of higher theta-e air into the storm. Throwing back all that Atlantic moisture into air significantly colder...oh boy

The NAM is insane...about as perfect as you could be. closes off 700 just to our south with occlusion/500 closing off just to our southeast. All of CT would be hit hard in this I would think

Pretty good

Here is 12z GFS bufkit for BDL lol

I wouldn't totally sell it off...forecast soundings have some pretty deep cold air and down fairly close to the sfc too. you get strong enough lift into the DGZ and its going to rip

Are they still doing the 2/$6 mix-and-match deal?

off coffee and mountain dew kick start.

15'' or bust Friday, April 16, 2021

Not terrible on the GFS...just need to get it south a bit more ughhhh. but that's an interior smacking

they don't even get severe anymore either

May's a severe month

Depending on actual wind direction there is major upslope potential for parts of the Berks...someone there could get destroyed depending how this plays out.

This time of year the higher elevations are usually always favored, however, I think this setup there is alot favoring the potential for snow at all elevations. For one, the models are indicating a pretty cold low-level airmass and looks like we will be seeing surface winds with a predominately northerly component. Also, the time of day could be a huge positive as looks like the majority of the processes at play occurring overnight Thursday and even moving through Friday morning...the processes surrounding dynamic cooling, drawing down colder air from up north, and the quite cold low-level airmass...all should pay in favor to keep a favorable thermo profile even at the lowest elevations. The biggest overall concern may be more dry air into the DGZ or where the strongest lift occurs and where the H5 tracks/closes off. But if this all happens in a favorable location...elevation I don't think plays much of a role...but of course the greatest of accumulations would probably occur with higher elevation.

The ingredients are certainly there for that to happen...just not sure we end up seeing this trend that far south/southeast...but there is room to at least head in that direction. some big differences between the NAM/GFS and the handling of all that energy within the Inter-mountain West