weatherwiz

I think the derecho is the one doing the chasing

I think I would honestly rather chase in IA than OK

Oof

Great information, thank you. I did not know this.

which causing the mesovorticies to form? Is it associated from the overnight/early AM convection? Didn't really pay much attention to the setup but now I wish I did. that type of MLJ moving over an EML with lapse rates over 8 and over 3000 MLCAPE...yikes. Rather significant s/w rotating through too

I see what you're saying. It's crazy how quick those processes work. Being on the warning desk out there in these situations must make the heart race. That line went from sub-severe to destructive winds in no time. Also noting cells quickly developing behind this line again

Gotta figure out how to increase speed but holy shit does that bow out as it crosses through IMG_4550.mov

Now this a true severe thunderstorm watch

This statement (while I can see how it makes obvious sense) isn't necessarily a correct statement in terms of adjusting to heat vs. cold. It's not as simple a "you can always put more clothes on". Extreme heat and extreme cold are both big killers every year but there are discrepancies as to which is the bigger killer. Some studies suggest that extreme cold kills far more people than extreme heat while other studies suggest the opposite. When it's extremely hot there are things you can easily do to maintain your body temperature or prevent it from rising...drinking water, staying in shade, minimal activity. Wen it's extreme cold just "adding layers" isn't going to be an answer. You're still being exposed to cold and your body temperature is still slowly falling. Humans can still function with body temperatures around 100 (obviously you feel like shit with a fever but you're not doing damage to your organs). But you're body temperature starts getting 3+ below our average temperature that can start to result in some minor issues. The "you can always put more clothes on" statement works great for indoors bur in extreme conditions that has zero value.

The march towards breaking 90F days at BDL is in. Exciting times ahead

Talk about the perfect definition of a tornado associated with a TC low topped supercell. Waterspout gets on land and quickly lifts up

EF-1 tornado confirmed in Westport Tuesday. 3rd tornado of the year in CT...all 3 within a 2-day span

Maybe when the AMO flips we'll get them again.

Probably about as long as it takes the Mets to get a competent owner

If a tree falls down in the forest, and nobody is around to hear it, did it really fall?

Nope...and looks like around the same area too that got smoked the other day. I saw they had FFW earlier

Covering an entire region is very difficult. I would agree with your assessment to as to why you would have glanced over the local impacts. I used to spend so much time on my blog psots going over the science and meteorology that I would; 1) Just run out of steam and want to be done so I would have very little detail about local impacts 2) Kinda completely forget to even go into those details...and quite frankly this is what people reading care most about. Perhaps there are some weather weenies who love the science but little Joe wondering if they should cover a window couldn't care less about some jet streak in SE Canada

That's a pretty impressive looking storm moving through east-central PA. Looks like it's driven by decent bulk shear and riding along MUCAPE axis

Today will put a slight dent in things but if we don't see a cooler shot next weekend (which too me is BD driven) this could go down as warmest August on record for some. I fully expect BDL to break the record of 90+ days in a calendar year.

Time constraint is certainly understandable. Hell...I wish I had more free time to be more involved with blog posts like I used to do but I think even I'm getting tired of them lol. I've actually thought about turning more into videocasts but issue is I just don't have much personal time. I actually enjoy your landfall focus. While I certainly understand your frustration regarding sensible impact there is tremendous value with landfalll forecasts and I think you do a helluva job pinning down locations. I do read your tropical posts/forecasts carefully b/c I admire your landfall predictions and I find them extremely helpful.

Good for you with sticking to your guns. It's a shame you don't work in the field...your presentation of forecasts is impeccable. I also love how you don't model hug...you use a combination of instinct, knowledge, climo, and data to derive at your forecast. You also don't waver and panic over each model run. You do things correctly. Some just have a horrible habit of focusing on one or two model products and throw flags or towels in with the change of each run.

I've noticed the same...hell I've noticed a quite a bit of trees too that have numerous limbs without leaves (which are even surrounded by trees which are fully leaved). Not sure if the tree disease is just worsening significantly but I'm noticing more and more even larger pockets where you have several trees just completely bare.

ahhh yes right...Irene happened before October...man I tell ya...my memory is legit fading. Hopefully we don't get a crazy above-average fall and delay the leaves changing process. We still have a pretty big window to get some high wind events...whether it's from convection or another tropical system before we get to the point where leaves start falling off.

The next wind event we get...even if it's in fall I think is going to produce a bit more damage than usual. You can see there are a ton of weakened trees...leaning or which have limbs that are partially broken off. I'm trying to remember how the first few wind events panned out after Oct Snow, Irene, and Sandy...anyone recall?

Looks like some possible backdoor action? If not though, we may be quite hot. That cold front that tries moving in from the west seems to kinda wash out before getting here.