weatherwiz

I did/do see those concerns, however, like I mentioned a few posts back there are differences here. Shear increases as the afternoon progresses...not decreases and the signals have been in place for rapid destabilization behind this. With dews so high and still strong sun it won't take much for temps to jump and vastly re-boost CAPE.

This is the 16z HRRR for BDL at 0z...obviously indications are there that we destabilize quite a bit later on. FWIW...it does have that convection moving through now as it lowers CAPE then quickly rebuilds it...LLJ strengthens too

There is something about today which is different from similar setups. Typically in these sort of setups our best shear happens to be during the morning and then weakening through the afternoon. While our mlvl shear is near maximum, the llvl jet should continue to increase a bit more through the afternoon. Behind this CT stuff there is ample clearing so... Looking over PA and even NW NJ CU initiating and convection forming. Models insist that we recover pretty quickly and should keep MLCAPE high...I think we see scattered severe t'storms between 5-10 PM.

heavy, heavy damage coming for you

Looks like some signs of a CU field back in W PA...so once this line moves through we should be able to quickly get into sun and destabilize...real tough to figure out later on b/c the CAMS are just all over the place.

Looks like West Hartford is going to get hit pretty good

It's not warnable right now. It's real weak/broad at 5k which means hardly anything closer to the sfc...if it was much stronger at 5k then you could argue

Ahhh...I think orange means a tornado watch may be considered

I remember trying to search once and didn’t find anything. I know I wrote it down but no clue where I put it. O

Maybe orange had to do with potential for significant gusts? I wonder if there is a documentation somewhere lol

Well it’s not really SPc call...local offices get final say or a big say

Does anyone remember what the colors of the MCD indicate again? Forgot what Chris said. Blue = svr red = tor purple = could be either orange ?

There is a some drier air pushing east in the mlvls.

Yeah it is. the OKX sounding forecasts right around 2000 J MLCAPE later on...which would be pretty significant. SPC mentions 1000-1500...I think if it became apparent 2000 was going to realize over a large area we would see an enhanced risk (for damaging wind...maybe hail)

The HRRR continues to be all over. Anyways some notes... The 12z OKX sounding was pretty damn impressive looking IMO. Looking at BUF/PIT soundings there are the hints of the strengthening mlvl flow too. Satellite/radar is a little on the concerning side with a line of activity developing across PA/SE NY.

I'm almost starting to wonder if tomorrow may actually offer the best potential

Glad we don't live there

It is complex indeed. I agree with you regarding the forcing. I keep debating this in one in my head, but I can see two things; 1) The lack of the strongest forcing could help with discrete cell development here 2) The forcing is just too weak...but with enough buoyancy we get development but it struggles to grow vertically.

When I was driving into work this morning I was getting onto Rt. 9 from 84 in West Hartford and I saw the flash to the NW. Plenty of blue sky...or much more than I thought anyways here in Branford. Satellite doesn't look horrific.

the mesos have been pretty horrific the past week with convection...not just here in the Northeast either. So much inconsistency...anyways I think there is room today to get some discrete cells going. CT could actually be a hot spot today

If we can punch some dry air into the mid-levels (enough anyways) could be a widespread wind event

Signals are conflicting...there is a chance they could be like 6-6.5...which is not bad for around here but they could be closer to 5.5 if there is a lot of crap. Anyways...as long as we can destabilize and not have to worry about that the high dews should compensate

TORs for all

Going to be a tight window but it could be pretty widespread...even despite the weak mid-level lapse rates. Not to beat the bat with the dead horse, but if we are able to get 2500 J/KG of MLCAPE...I think that's the magic value. Where's @OceanStWx been????????????

yes, I think so. I think our best window is early on...so we're going to want to start with sun...I don't think we need a ton of sunshine so we don't need sunny skies...but we want to get MLCAPE over 2000 and 3km CAPE over 125 J...and maybe we could get away with closer to 100 J of 0-3km CAPE.