weatherwiz

So many flags today I feel like the flag waver at a NASCAR race

Looking at mesoanalysis this morning this has really turned to crap.

wagons southeast

It also looks like timing has slowed by a couple hours which coins be a good sign

Pretty much HRRR vs. other CAMs at this point

50 shades of Haze

I think the 3km NAM is trash anyways.

WOAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH 18z HRRR with an explosion of convection tomorrow!!!! embedded supercells for all.

Jeezus...what's with this flooding everywhere

Soundings have sfc winds at BDL already NW by the morning with a NW flow through 5k...actually you can see small capping layers too. God damn it...this is BS. Of course this crap would happen. We actually get decent lapse rates and everything else goes to shit. I also don't like how the pre-frontal is oriented. What a waste. We better get an EML coming up with that look.

I did see the Slight risk. The position of the pre-frontal trough is going to be pretty huge I'm guessing. But this could really be good for RI/SE MA looking closer.

I am a little unsure actually of what to expect. Looks like we'll have a pre-frontal trough on our doorstep to start the day and sfc winds begin to become W to even more WNW. Thankfully it is rather moist aloft so we don't have to worry about mixing dews but that could heavily limit convergence. If sfc winds can be more SW that would be beneficial...could also increase tornado potential but LCL's and llvl shear are kinda high/weak.

We have to get an EML from this

I had a dream that there was cloud seeding going on and that's why we've become a tropical monsoon

I love the FU's!!!!

That's good! Sometimes I am actually quite amazed at temperature responses even when you have an abundance of sky cover. I notice this quite a bit across the mid-west. You'll have some cities that are virtually cloudy all day and still somehow manage to get 3-4F above MOS/NBM. But then again...when you have the right airmass in place and sufficient mixing...it doesn't take much to ramp up the temps.

Woah...that is super interesting. I'll have to read more on that. I can definitely see how it is complicated...if you're relying heavily on CAPE for convection well not good...but if CAPE isn't necessarily important you can probably get away with it. I remember back (I think) early 2000's we had some bigger convective potential events get squashed from smoke...I remember having forecast highs in the 90's and we barely got out of the lower 80's. But...I think too the smoke was literally even down to the sfc (it was from the wildfires in SE Canada).

doesn't smoke also contribute to increased CIN (or is that just a result of the decreased solar insolation?)

Excellent post. The same size we have too on such events are just so small the margin of error is quite high. Even re-analysis of ENSO events prior to 1950...you can't really make correlations to ENSO events now and even if so...alot of the re-analysis data may be quite suspect. When you have a strong ENSO episode that's obviously going to dominate and we know what that will do...especially a strong EL Nino but if its a weak ENSO signal or maybe even low end moderate...the correlation IMO is going to be pretty small

I'm kinda hoping smoke doesn't hurt things tomorrow. DAMN YOU SMOKE

I think we should see some loud bangers traverse much of MA/CT late evening and overnight.

we need one of those

That line looks to weaken pretty quickly but I think we may even have a chance for something this evening...models keep big elevated CAPE down our way

Going to see some pretty solid wind producers tomorrow. Any more discrete cells could also produce some large hail...maybe up to golf ball possible

I wish timing could slow by a few hours but all the ingredients there...pretty steep lapse rates, good dynamics, potential for moderate CAPE