weatherwiz

spilling the tackle box

I would much rather lose power for a week then have flooding problems. Losing power is merely just an inconvenience. Flooding...well that can be just devastating

If we can't get EML's may as well do hurricanes

we screwed

do you think they issue a special advisory or an update and upgrade to a hurricane?

the shifts west on a run-to-run basis have been pretty striking. Perhaps we do see a "correction east" but given the size of the westward shifts...we may not be done. I would think we would want to start seeing very little shifts west or pretty much standing pat just before ticks east occur

Bingo! I do remember you pointing that out. If you have a fast moving system...well these cooler waters won't do much for weakening b/c there isn't time. In this instance it may do a quite a bit of damage but if there is some interaction with that ulvl low and there is just enough ulvl divergence perhaps it helps to offset some of the weakening by the cooler waters. The wind potential still scares me a bit b/c people may see 30-40 mph and go meh but that's going to cause some issues...obviously nothing over the top crazy

Pretty sizable shift west...crazy too for getting closer in time

Thanks for posting actual SST's! Sometimes we get too caught up in the SSTA's but we need to remember the water temperatures needed for tropical systems to strengthen. Despite the waters off the coast being warmer than average they are still several degrees below what is generally required for strengthening. Not only this but the depth of the isotherms is just as important, especially in slow movers.

they may be the ones going out to sea...

I think a landfall into Long Island is gaining much more traction

Coastal flooding would be pretty devastating. Probably would even see hurricane-force wind gusts

I know we talked about winds not being a big issue but the probs for tropical storm force, 50+ knot, and hurricane force are a bit uneasy. also 2-4’ surge along CT shore… and 3-5’ farther east. Can’t rule that out into the CT shore with a more west track either

was looking more at the 24-36 hour window

Certainly intriguing to see intensity guidance trend a bit less impressive with how much Henry strengthens. As been stated before...intensity guidance shouldn't be taken as gospel but until there is clear-cut evidence it is wrong it can't be ignored

Pretty impressive convection around center. -80C to -90C cloud tops...wow

Curious to see what NHC does at 11 with the track but I would think we see a sizable shift west with the western edge of the cone and subsequent shift west with forecast track

probably with the 11:00 AM updates

theme keeps going with a slight jog west

yeah pretty much all we're waiting on now...just need to fast forward another 12-16 hours and we'll have a narrowed down area on potential landfall

Until we see Henri making a more north turn might have to lean more towards a much farther west track in the end game

Pretty big shift west...

yeah I doubt it's going to be that small

yeah that was kinda interesting

Looks like cloud tops are starting to cool in the vicinity of the center with cooling cloud tops. Though much of the convection is well south of the center